Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Sunday, November 15, 2026
1:00 PM ET, MetLife Stadium
The Bills are 8.5-point favorites with a total of 50.5 at most books, and my play is Bills -8.5.
How do you stop Josh Allen when you can’t even protect your own quarterback? That’s the problem facing the Jets this week, and I don’t think Aaron Glenn’s team has an answer.
Start with the trenches, because that’s where this game gets decided. Geno Smith has been sacked 28 times this season, losing a league-high 236 yards, and Kansas City dropped him five more times last week in a 35-12 loss, per the Associated Press. Now here comes Greg Rousseau, who leads Buffalo with eight sacks. A Jets offense that already ranks in the middle of the pack in efficiency (17th in EPA per play through Week 9, per nflverse play-by-play data) has no business sitting in third-and-long against this front, and that’s exactly where it keeps ending up.
It gets worse if Garrett Wilson can’t go. The Jets’ top receiver (43 catches, 527 yards) missed the Kansas City game in the concussion protocol and is questionable. Without him, New York managed 229 total yards in Arrowhead and Smith threw for 165. Breece Hall did return from a quad injury to run for 61 yards, which helps, but a run game doesn’t scare anyone when you’re trailing by two scores in the third quarter.
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The other side of the ball is just as lopsided. Buffalo is 7-1, unbeaten on the road at 4-0, and scores 32 points a game. Through Week 9, nflverse data had the Bills third in the league in EPA per play on offense and third on passing plays. The Jets defense ranks 30th against the pass by that same measure. In plain English, Allen gets more out of every dropback than almost anyone, and the Jets give up more on every dropback than almost anyone. James Cook (814 yards, 8 touchdowns) is there to finish drives when the Bills want to lean on the ground.
The Jets have now lost four straight, and the last one wasn’t close. Buffalo is coming off a 23-6 win in Minnesota on Monday night and a 36-10 thrashing of Baltimore before that. One team is playing for the top seed. The other is playing out the string.
Why the number could bite me
The short week is real. Buffalo played Monday night in Minneapolis and now travels again on a six-day turnaround. The Bills’ offensive line is banged up, with left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) and left guard Alec Anderson (ankle) both questionable after missing Monday’s game. Cornerback Christian Benford also left that win with a wrist injury, and his status for Sunday wasn’t clear as of Tuesday night. That matters against rookie edge rusher David Bailey, who has 7.5 sacks and wrecked a drive against Kansas City.
The Jets have also kept most of these losses close. Three of their four losses in this skid came by seven points or fewer, and the line has already moved from 7.5 to 8.5. Backdoor covers happen when a dog has nothing to lose.
I’ll still lay it. The Bills have the better quarterback, the better pass rush and the most lopsided efficiency matchup on the board, and the Jets just showed what their offense looks like without Wilson.
Projected score: Bills 31, Jets 17
The Pick: Bills -8.5
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