Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, November 15, 2026
8:20 PM ET, Paycor Stadium (NBC)
Cincinnati is a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5 at most books, and my play is Steelers +3.5.
Joe Burrow is having the kind of season that makes defensive coordinators lose sleep. Twenty-three touchdown passes. A 462-yard, five-touchdown day against Tennessee. A show in Madrid last week, where Ja’Marr Chase caught 10 balls for 155 yards. The Bengals have scored 30 or more in four straight games, matching a franchise record that’s stood since 1997. So why am I taking the points? Because the last time these teams met, Pittsburgh pushed Cincinnati around and won.
The Week 3 blueprint still works. In September the Steelers beat the Bengals 30-27, piling up 411 yards. Jaylen Warren ran for 127 yards and added 49 more as a receiver. Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 and three scores. Cincinnati’s run defense is still a problem. The Bengals allow 126.6 rushing yards a game and 375.3 total yards, and they’ve been winning shootouts instead of stopping people. They gave up 36 to Tennessee at home two weeks ago and needed overtime to escape.
Pittsburgh has found its identity up front. The Steelers’ last game was a 27-6 beating of Cleveland, with 200 rushing yards, eight sacks and Warren tying a career high with 143 yards. Warren has 704 rushing yards on the season, and this is a team that wants to shorten the game. Long drives keep Burrow on the sideline, which is the best defense anyone has against him right now.
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The schedule tilts toward the visitors. Pittsburgh is coming off its bye with two weeks to prepare. Cincinnati is a week removed from a trip to Spain and back, with no break in between. That doesn’t mean the Bengals will come out flat, but it’s a real edge for the fresher team. The Steelers’ defense also gives up only 83.9 rushing yards a game, and T.J. Watt has 7.5 sacks. Make the Bengals one-dimensional and Watt can pin his ears back.
What could go wrong. Burrow and Chase can beat any game plan, and Pittsburgh’s secondary isn’t fully healthy. Cornerbacks Doneiko Slaughter and Brandin Echols are both questionable with hamstring injuries, and receiver Michael Pittman Jr. is on injured reserve, which thins out Rodgers’ options. The Steelers are only 2-2 on the road and score 22.5 points a game, so if this becomes a track meet, they probably lose it. The total has climbed from 47.5 to 49.5, so the market expects points. Expect a chilly night in the high 30s, which suits the team that wants to run.
Bottom line: getting more than a field goal with a rested, physical team that already beat this opponent is a price I’ll pay.
Projected score: Bengals 26, Steelers 24
The Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-110)
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