Oklahoma Sooners (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date and Time: Saturday September 20, 2014 7:30 pm EST
Where: Mountaineer Field, Morgantown WV
by Tim, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Okl. -11/WVA +11
Over/Under Total: 63
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WVU invites Oklahomans to a rip roarin Hoedown Saturday Night on Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown! Getting to the Stadium on time might prove troublesome for some Sooners. Ill give you a Big Game breakdown and partime Tour Guide to get you in your seat on time!
South of Pittsburgh is the best entry point for a clear shot to WVUs campus. The Yellow Pee Pee Creek Welcome Center on 79 South offers a smile and warm feeling to all Sooner supporters venturing into West Virginia. If youre brave enough to go inside the Center, youll be treated to a 3 course Freebie meal of catfish soup, a side of brine, and sawdust biscuits (theyre only a penny!!?!). Suuueeyyy! Oklahoma brings their big-shouldered Number 4 ranking into Almost Heaven and by Jiminy Cricket, West Ginny authorities have obliged by moving squirrel season back a full week guaranteeing a sellout in Morgantown! The Sooners vs The Mountaineerslets see who will receive a Mountain air smackdown this Saturday!
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Of course Im kidding (mostly) about West Virginia! It isnt like West Ginny is, ummmm, Fresno or anything?? HA! West Virginia can P-L-A-Ythey showed a HUGE effort against Bama in the season opening over-hyped extravaganza. It absolutely helps that Sooner starting running back and leading rusher Keith Ford will miss this game—-and two more from injury! OUCH! This aint the stinkin 70s and early 80s where Barry Switzer can yell down the bench for The Next Heisman Candidate! NOPE! This is more like Stoops hollerin on the Univ. of Daytons second floor (Stuart-Meyer) looking for a suitable replacement. They play football at UD >>> Ive seen it! Oklahoma is a passing team and Oklahoma struggles against the pass. Last week, Tennessee Punter-turned-QB (kidding) Justin Worley put over 200 yards on the Sooners and hes terrible!!! This week, the Sooners will face a team in WVU that can pass and pass protect! Tough day ahead for the Sooners this Saturday? Lets look at the Sooner numbers!
Sooners look like the clear favorite in this game. 198 Games under Bob Stoops and 128 double-digit victories, 15 straight bowl games, and the Sooners are 81-1 SU when they score 40 points or more. But lets look at this -11 spread and measure the Sooners. In his 16th year as Head Coach of the Sooners, Stoops is around 54% beating the spread (1999-2014). Much of his winning ways ATS is done at home clicking off around 58% ATS wins. Awaythe Sooners historically are a 50-50 coin flip to cover. Oklahoma is currently ranked number 4 in the nation and was a preseason Top 5 with 99% of all reputable sports reporting agencies. Ironically, when Oklahoma is ranked in the Top 5 preseason (it has happened 8 times under Stoops), the Sooners are a slim 50% ATS at seasons end. In the remaining 8 seasons where the Sooners were not a preseason Top 5 pick, the Sooners beat the spread at 60%! Clearly, the publics expectations for the Sooners force the line a little higher than it should be especially at Home. Right now, the Sooners—according to the numbers—are not in a High Value position and should be cautiously investi-ma-gated! P.S. Did you know starting Sooner running back and leading rusher Keith Ford for this game? And remember this isnt the Switzer days and were chasing replacements at UD where it appears they play football? Lets look at Ginny!
We dont need to look at WVU (HA!) because this teamremember?…can P-L-A-Y!! They gave Bama a game and Bama is whole crapload better than Oklahoma! As usual, Oklahoma has posted huge numbers against Nobodys and carry entirely too much weight with the betting public. This excess public weight pumps the point spread at least a field goal and a hook; certainly not -11!!!! Look for the Sooners to struggle here as WVU keeps applying the pressure of scoring right in step with the Sooners. 2013Oklahoma 16-7 as the Sooners were 21 point favs at home. 2012 in Morgantown; the Sooners are a 12 point fav on the roadfinal score, Oklahoma 50-49 over the Mountaineers. In 2011, Oklahoma was again a big home favorite and failed to score! This is an easy as kissing yer sister pick. NOTE: At the writing of this article the LINE has moved to Oklahoma -7.5/West Virginia +7.5 with the OVER/UNDER OFF the BOARD (because of the injury update to Keith Ford). DO NOT LET IT SCARE YOU! This is where the line probably should have been WITH Keith Ford!!!
Tims Pick to Cover the Point Spread: WVU +11 and run out of town!!!! (NOTE: The LINE changed after the news of Keith Fords injury. Take the +7.5 and WVU ALL DAY BABY!!)