Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Baylor Bears Pick

by | Dec 7, 2020 | cfb

Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (2-6, 3-4-1), 12/12/20

Time: 7 pm ET Saturday, Dec. 12

Where: McLane Stadium

TV: ESPNU

Point spread: Ok St -5/Bay +5 (WagerWeb - Move the line up to 20 points with their GIANT college footbal teasers!)

Money line: Cowboys -195/Bears +155

Over/Under: 50.5

Oklahoma State is headed toward a bowl while Baylor is playing out the string on a losing season. But the Bears might be the more motivated of the two teams, heading into the regular-season finale for both Saturday night in Waco. How are we playing this game with our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football betting odds opened the Cowboys as five-point road favorites for this game, with an over/under of 50.5. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Cowboys Betting Preview

Oklahoma State started 4-0 this season and looked like it had a great shot of making the Big 12 championship game. But the Cowboys have fallen by the wayside, going just 2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS over their last five games, after losing at TCU last week 29-22. OSU used an early defensive score to jump out to a 13-0 lead and took a 16-7 advantage into halftime. The Cowboys then fell behind 21-16, lead again at 22-21 in the fourth quarter but gave up a 71-yard bomb for a touchdown and could not respond, losing outright as 2.5-point favorites.

Near the end, Oklahoma State threw an interception in the TCU end zone with four minutes to go, then failed on a fourth down in Horned Frogs territory with two minutes left.

Oklahoma State racked up 418 yards of total offense but gave up 501 yards of TCU offense. The Cowboys also got out-rushed 236-148.

OSU has now been out-gained in each of its last four games and out-rushed in three of its previous four contests.

At 5-3 in conference play, the Cowboys are eliminated from contention for a spot in the upcoming Big 12 championship game. So they’re playing this week’s game for pride. However, Oklahoma State also lists several key people on its injury report for this week, and one wonders if those guys will play or sit out and look forward to careers playing on Sundays.

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Bears Betting Preview

Meanwhile, Baylor just gave Oklahoma a decent game last week in Norman, lost 27-14 but covered as a 23-point dog. The Bears came up empty offensively in the first half but only trailed the Sooners 10-0 into the locker room. Baylor then fell down 17-0 early in the third quarter but responded with a touchdown to stay in the game. Later, down by 20, the Bears secured money with a score with one minute to go.

Baylor actually out-gained Oklahoma 288-269 and won first downs 19-16. But the Bears also missed
two makeable field goals when the game was still close and threw two interceptions inside Sooners territory, killing scoring opportunities.

Baylor has now out-gained three of its last four opponents.

Two weeks ago, the Bears beat Kansas State 32-31; a game prior to that, they lost at Texas Tech 24-23 on a field goal at the buzzer; and a game prior to that, they lost to Iowa State, the best team in the Big 12 this season, 38-31 but covered at +14. So Baylor’s been playing some decent ball as of late.

At 2-6 on the season, the Bears are also playing this one for pride.

Cowboys-Bears Recent History

Baylor is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS over the last six meetings with Oklahoma State, including upsets each of the previous two seasons. Last year in Stillwater, the Bears trailed 27-24 early in the fourth quarter, then scored three touchdowns in four minutes to win outright 45-27 as six-point dogs.

Also, that game played over a total of 68.5 when Baylor scored the final seven points of the game with five minutes left.

College Football Betting Trends

  • Oklahoma State is 135-67 SU, 108-80-6 ATS in 15-plus seasons under Coach Gundy.
  • Oklahoma State is 11-6 SU, 9-8 ATS with Spencer Sanders as the starter at QB.
  • Baylor is 21-17 SU, 21-16-1 ATS with Charlie Brewer as the starter at QB.

Totals Report

Unders are 6-3 in OSU games this season, which are averaging 53 total points.

Unders are 4-3-1 in Baylor games this season, which are averaging 54 points.

Free College Football Pick

Oklahoma State must be disappointed, falling out of contention in the Big 12 after a 4-0 start, so we’re dubious of the Cowboys’ motivation for this game. On the other hand, Baylor won’t make a bowl, but it would be nice to finish its first season under Coach Aranda on a good note. So we like the Bears’ motivation here. Plus, a case can be made Baylor is playing the better ball as of late. We’re betting the Bears here for the win on the money line. Question: Why would you risk -110 odds on games when you could be laying only -105 elsewhere? Please consider making the switch to reduced odds football betting (and all other sports too) at BetAnySports! It’ll you save a ton of money and help keep us a free website! Thanks!