Ole Miss Rebels vs Arkansas Razorbacks Recommended Bet
Ole Miss Rebels (8-2 SU, ATS 4-5-1) vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (5-5 SU, ATS 5-5-0)
Date: Saturday, November 19th
Location: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville, AR
Point Spread: Rebels -3.5/Razorbacks +3.5 (Bovada – Check out their INCREDIBLE live betting platform where you can put every sport on one page! It’s FAST! Not clunky like the others!) Money
Line: Rebels -178/Razorbacks +146
This year, Rebels have an overall record of 8-2. In addition, they have also played well in the SEC, going 4-2. The Rebels have been favored in 8 games this season while posting an ATS mark of 4-5-1. Their average over-under betting line is 59.9 leading to an over-under record of 5-5-0.
The Rebels are coming off a 30-24 loss to Alabama. But they did manage to cover the spread as the 11.0-point underdogs. The team finished the game by throwing one touchdown pass. Overall, the Rebels had 212 passing yards on a completion percentage of 56.2%. The team ended the game with two rushing touchdowns, along with a total of 191 yards on the ground.
So far, quarterback Jaxson Dart has a passer rating of 96.94 while completing 150 of his 247 attempts. Currently, he has a total of 2123 passing yards. Through the air, the team will be looking for a big game from leading receiver Jonathan Mingo. On the season, he has caught 37 for 723 yards. The Rebels have turned to running back Quinshon Judkins a total of 205 times for a total of 1171 rushing yards.
When playing against SEC opponents, the Razorbacks have posted a record of just 2-4. Their overall record currently sits at 5-5. This season, the Razorbacks have been favored in 5 games while posting an ATS mark of 5-5-0. Their average over-under betting line is 58.5 leading to an over-under record of 7-3-0.
In their previous game, the Razorbacks lost by a score of 13-10 to LSU. However, they were able to cover the spread as 5.0-point underdogs. In the win, Arkansas completed 54.5 of their 22 passes, 1 of which resulted in a touchdown. In the rushing game, the Razorbacks did not find the endzone, finishing with a total of 133 yards on the ground.
So far, quarterback KJ Jefferson has a passer rating of 114.71 while completing 148 of his 222 attempts. But, leading up to the game, he is listed as questionable on the injury report (Undisclosed). Through the air, the team will be looking for a big game from leading receiver Matt Landers. On the season, he has caught 37 for 663 yards. The top option in the run game for the team is Raheim Sanders, who has carried the ball 185 times for a total of 1147 yards.
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In their last ten games, Ole Miss has covered the spread at a rate of 80.0% while putting together a straight-up record of 8-2-0. The team’s average scoring differential was 13.7, as they averaged 36.1 points per game. Defensively, they allowed an average of 22.4. Their last ten over-under record is 5-5-0.
Ole Miss has played well in their previous five road games, going 4-1-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 35.2 points per game while allowing 24.4. The team also performed well vs. the spread at 3-1-1.
Against the spread, the Razorbacks have gone 5-5-0 over their last 10 games. Straight up, they have a record of 5-5-0. On offense, the team averaged 29.9 points per game while allowing 28.9. Their over-under mark (last 10) is 7-3-0.
Across their five previous home games, Arkansas has an ATS mark of 2-3-0. Their straight-up record in these matchups was 2-3-0 while averaging 27.4 points per game.
KEY STATS AND ANALYSIS
So far, the Rebels are averaging 36.1 points per game on offense, which is good for the 19th most in college football. On offense, the Rebels will be tested against an Arkansas defense allowing just 28.9 points per game. If the Rebels are going to find success, they will need to continue to perform well on third downs, as they are converting at a rate of 51.0%.
One aspect of the game that could benefit an Ole Miss offense that struggles to generate big plays in the passing attack is that they are facing off an Arkansas defense that has yet to generate a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So far, the Razorbacks are just 10th in sacks per game.
So far, Ole Miss has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 5th in attempts per game, with an average of 47.9. This heavy usage has led to an average of 259.8 rush yards per game, placing them 3rd in the NCAA. This week, the Rebels will face an Arkansas defense ranked 99th in rush yards allowed per game. This year, they have averaged 267.44 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.
Heading into this week’s matchup, the Razorbacks are ranked just 57th in the NCAA in points scored at 29 points per contest. For the game, they are taking on an Ole Miss defense allowing just 22 points per contest.
So far, Arkansas has relied heavily on the ground game, as they rank 6th in attempts per game, with an average of 47.3. This heavy usage has led to an average of 224.3 rush yards per game, placing them 12th in the NCAA. This week, the Razorbacks will be facing an Ole Miss defense that is ranked 96th in rush yards allowed per game. So far, they are averaging 228.44 yards per game when facing defenses ranked outside the top 50.
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