No. 13 Ole Miss Rebels (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Memphis Tigers (5-0 SU, 2-2-1 ATS)
College Football Week 7
Date/Time: Saturday October 17th, 12:00PM EST
Where: Liberty Bowl Memphis, T.N.
TV: ABC
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: MISS -10.5/MEM +10.5
Over/Under Total: 67
An interesting out of conference matchup will take place this Saturday when the no. 13 Ole Miss Rebels travel into the Liberty Bowl for a date with the Memphis Tigers. I am sure that the Rebels had this game marked as an easy win before the season started. However, the Tigers have been one of the surprise stories throughout the early weeks of the season with an unbeaten 5-0 SU mark. Obviously Memphis has yet to play anyone with the talent level like Ole Miss but the Rebels could easily be in for a surprise if they take this road trip lightly this Saturday.
The Tigers have a 12 game winning streak that will be on the line this Saturday but they have remained resilient in recent weeks winning each of their last 3 games by 1 score or less. Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch has been nothing short of incredible hitting 70% of his passes for 1,535 yards with 10 touchdowns and 0 interceptions through the Tigers first 5 games. Lynch has been sensational throwing the football and has proven that he can move the football against any opposing defense. Of course Ole Miss will provide the most talented defense that Memphis has played to date. However, I do believe that Lynch can still be really effective if he can get protection from the offensive front.
The Memphis spread offense can work against the Ole Miss defense if Lynch gets time to throw. However, Ole Miss has a pretty good talent differential among the trenches that will be hard to overcome. I believe a large part of what Memphis does on offense will be determined by how much time he has to throw the football. If the Rebels defensive front does not get pressure on Lynch, they are going to have some serious trouble slowing this offense down.
The bad news for Memphis fans is while they should still be able to move the football to some extent, their defense is plain bad. The Tigers rank 103rd in total defense giving up 438 total yards per game. The even worse news for Tigers fans is that Ole Miss has been great on offense even going up against some of the top defenses in the country. In fact, the Rebels have averaged 527 total yards per game behind the outstanding quarterback play of transfer Chad Kelly. Kelly has tossed 14 touchdowns with just 5 picks while completing 64.5% of his passes for 1,862 yards through 6 games. The quarterback position was a big question mark going into the 2015 season but Kelly has exceeded expectations in a huge way. This Rebels offense has been just as effective as they were a year ago under senior Bo Wallace.
With the return of WR Laquon Treadwell, the offense has remained dangerous through the air. As long as Kelly can avoid any type of disastrous performance, Ole Miss should be able to move the ball rather easily against a bad Memphis defense. However, this game and prediction still boils around the other matchup between the Memphis offense against the Ole Miss defense. I believe the Tigers are going to have their moments but the question is can they keep it up for an entire 4 quarters? My opinion is that this will be a motivational type of game. Will we see the Ole Miss team that put up a big number against Alabama on the road or will we see the Ole Miss team that laid an egg against Florida on the road?
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I really like the over in this game. I do not believe either offense will have much trouble moving the football nor scoring points. Memphis has found the over in all 5 of their last 5 games and I think that trend continues. Take the over 67 in a shootout!
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