Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores
Saturday, October 10, 2026
3:30 PM ET, FirstBank Stadium
No. 9 Ole Miss is a 10-point road favorite over Vanderbilt with a total of 57.5. My play is the Commodores getting the points.
Ole Miss can’t stop anybody. The Rebels rank 106th nationally in adjusted EPA per play on defense and 111th against the run. They’ve allowed 24 or more points in three of four games. In their last game, Florida ran for 302 yards on 53 carries in a 52-28 rout. A defense that leaky has trouble covering double digits on the road, even with a good offense.
The Ole Miss offense is the reason they’re favored. Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for 1,222 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions, and he’s run for four more scores. He accounted for three touchdowns against Florida. But Ole Miss is 1-3 against the spread this season, because its defense keeps giving points back. Running back Kewan Lacy is also playing through a shoulder injury, and Pete Golding has said he’ll be limited the rest of the season.
Vanderbilt’s quarterback situation is getting better. True freshman Jared Curtis missed last week’s 38-14 loss at Georgia with a knee bruise, but he’s listed as probable. Blaze Berlowitz played well in relief, throwing a 60-yard touchdown and converting 5 of 9 third downs in the first half against one of the best defenses in the country. Golding expects both quarterbacks to play. Vanderbilt’s offense ranks 57th in adjusted EPA per play, and against this Ole Miss defense, that’s enough to put up points.
The risk is that Vanderbilt can’t get stops either. The Commodores have allowed 20 or more points in four straight games and are 0-2 in SEC play after losing to Auburn by six and Georgia by 24. Their run game, at 3.7 yards per carry, hasn’t been a strength. If Chambliss gets going early, this could turn into a shootout Ole Miss wins comfortably. But the Rebels have had a bye week to dwell on a 52-point beating, and their defense hasn’t shown it can hold a lead. A 34-27 type of game keeps Vanderbilt inside the number.
The Pick: Vanderbilt Commodores +10
Back the Commodores at home and bring some extra bankroll into Saturday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Vanderbilt +10 and the rest of your Week 6 college football picks.
