Penn State at Michigan State Prediction ATS 11/27/21

by | Nov 24, 2021 | cfb

Penn State Nittany Lions (7-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) at Michigan State Spartans (9-2, 7-2-2), 11/27/21

When: 3:30 pm ET

Where: Spartans Stadium

TV: ABC

Point Spread: Pick ’em (MyBookie - Use bonus code PREDICT100 and they’ll give you a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $300!)

Over/under: 51.5

Michigan State and Penn State are 17-17-1 all-time against each other, so someone will take the series lead when the teams meet for their regular-season finale Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. These two teams are out of the running as far as winning the Big Ten East goes, so they’re playing this one for pride and possibly a New Year’s Day bowl bid.

This game looks like it should be close, and the spread indicates the same. Which way are we going here with our free college football betting pick?

Penn State-Michigan State Betting Odds

This week’s college football betting lines opened the Spartans as one-point favorites over the Lions, with an over/under of right around 52. Early betting action then edged that spread into a pick ’em.

Penn State Betting Preview

The Nittany Lions just bounced back from that tough loss to Michigan two weeks ago to blank Rutgers last week 28-0. Penn State, playing most of the game without starting quarterback Sean Clifford, drew first blood with a touchdown late in the first half to lead 7-0 into the locker room. The Lions then tacked on three more scores from there while pitching a shutout for the victory and the cover as 14-point favorites.

Penn State out-gained the Scarlet Knights 407-160, out-rushed Rutgers 149-67, and allowed the Knights to invade Lions’ territory just once all day.

Still, Penn State has only out-gained and out-rushed two of its last six opponents, going 2-4 in the process.

Two weeks ago, the Lions led the Wolverines 17-14 but gave up a long touchdown from scrimmage with three minutes left to lose 21-17. In fact, Penn State’s four losses this season have come by three points at Iowa, by two points in overtime to Illinois, by nine at Ohio State and the Michigan game. A couple of plays here and there, and the Lions could be 9-2 or even 10-1.

But at 7-4, it looks like Penn State might be headed to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Michigan State Betting Preview

The Spartans, meanwhile, after starting 8-0 this season are 1-2; both SU and ATS their last three times out after getting punked at Ohio State last week 56-7. Michigan State allowed the Buckeyes to score touchdowns on their first six possessions of the game, trailed 49-0 at halftime, and gave little fight from there, whiffing ATS as a 20-point dog.

The Spartans got out-gained by Ohio State 655-224, out-rushed 206-66, and lost time of possession by a 38:22 split.

Michigan State’s now been out-gained by four of its last five opponents.

Two weeks ago, the Spartans beat Maryland 40-21. Three weeks ago, they took their first loss of this season, 40-29, at Purdue. Four weeks ago, MSU beat Michigan 37-33 even though it got out-gained by 157 yards. So that Spartans defense is giving up a lot of yards and a lot of points as of late.

At 9-2 overall, Michigan State has a shot at a New Year’s Day bowl, but a loss Saturday would probably kill that theory.

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Penn State-Michigan State Recent History

The Spartans won five of six meetings with the Nittany Lions from 2010-18, but Penn State is 2-0 both SU and ATS over the last two. Last year the Lions trailed Michigan State 24-18 late into the third quarter but scored the final 21 points of the game for the 39-24 win and the unlikely cover as 14-point favorites.

Also, that game played over a total of 45.

College Football Betting Trends

This season, teams ranked in the Coaches Top 25 are 166-39 SU, 107-95 ATS vs. unranked opponents.

Totals Report

  • Under are 9-2 in Penn State games this season, which are averaging 42 total points.
  • Overs are 6-5 in Michigan State games this season, which are averaging 58 points.
  • Overs are 7-3 over the last ten meetings between these two teams

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Free College Football Betting Pick

Despite the records, Penn State is the better team here, especially on defense. And while the Nittany Lions QB situation is a bit up in the air, back-up Christian Veilleux performed admirably last week. Also, Michigan State RB Walker, who’s now second in the nation in rushing with 1.498 yards, is hobbled by a sore ankle. Finally, these two teams played five common opponents this season; Penn State played Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Ohio State, and Rutgers to +65 yards per game while the Spartans played those five foes to -83 YPG. We like the Lions here. With the line being a pick’em, this is a GREAT game to partake in live betting! Find the absolute best live betting platform online at Bovada Sportsbook! They’ll give you a 50% real cash bonus too!

Fargo's CFB Game of the Year (32-23 Run) Sat

Matt Fargo Pro Handicapper

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