Texas A&M Aggies vs. LSU Tigers Prediction ATS

by | Nov 24, 2021 | cfb

Texas A&M Aggies (8-3 SU, 7-4-0 ATS) vs. LSU Tigers (5-6 SU, 4-6-1 ATS)

When: Saturday, Nov. 27th, 7:00 pm (ET)

Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA

TV: ESPN

Point Spread: TA&M -6.5/LSU +6.5 (Opened at 6.5 at BetOnline - One of the biggest and best sportsbooks on the web!)

Total: 45.5 (Opened at 45.5)

Money Line: TA&M -270/LSU +211

Power Rating: TA&M -6

Key Injuries

Texas A&M Aggies: WR Demond Demas *Out* (Undisclosed), DB Erick Young *Questionable* (Undisclosed), WR Chase Lane *Questionable* (Leg), DB Brian Williams *Out* (Undisclosed), WR Hezekiah Jones *Out* (Shoulder)

LSU Tigers: OT Cameron Wire *Questionable* (Lower Body), G Ed Ingram *Questionable* (Undisclosed), DB Major Burns *Out* (Undisclosed), DB Sage Ryan *Questionable* (Undisclosed), DT Joseph Evans *Out* (Undisclosed), G Chasen Hines *Out* (Undisclosed)

Recent Form

The Aggies go into their last game of the season with an 8-3 record. They have won five of their last six games. Their most notable win on the season was an upset over then #1 Alabama. In those five wins, the Aggies have averaged 38.4 points per game and give up just 14.4 points per game defensively. Texas A&M has the 69th ranked offense with 400.3 YPG. The Aggies defense is 16th best in the country, with 319.8 YPG given up.

The LSU Tigers have had a mediocre season as they enter the week with a 5-6 record. Though they won last time out, they have lost three of their last four. The Tigers most notable win of the season came over Florida 49-42. While any playoff or conference championship hopes are far out of reach, LSU would become bowl eligible if able to secure their sixth win this week. The Tigers offense sits barely inside the Top 100 with 370.0 YPG. Defensively they rank a little better, though they have a negative yard differential at 379.1 YPG.

Aggies Defense Good Against the Pass

The Aggies defense overall is one of the best in the country, but it’s their ability to shut down good quarterbacks and avoid giving up big plays. In their upset over Alabama, the Aggie defense was able to keep Bryce Young under control compared to other teams. They held the Alabama offense to 38 points and had a timely interception as well. On the season, Texas A&M allows just 182.4 yards passing a game, which is 11th best in the nation. This Saturday, they face another pass-heavy offense in LSU that averages 260.4 YPG through the air. Though they like to pass the ball, they aren’t the most efficient team as far as avoiding turnovers and having a high completion percentage. The LSU offense has nine interceptions while completing 59% of their passes. Should the Aggies defense give the LSU offense a good look and keep them close to their 182-yard average or even below 200 yards total passing, they would give themselves a great opportunity to win this game.

LSU Turnovers

One of the Tiger’s offensive woes this season has been their inability to take care of the football. LSU enters this week with a negative turnover differential, having given up 14 turnovers on the season. With 11 games played, this means they’re good for at least one turnover a game. Playing against a good defense this week that is going to be tough to throw the ball against, any turnovers could prove to be their biggest downfall in this game. This season, the Texas A&M defense has forced 16 turnovers, with their stellar pass defense getting ten interceptions. With the spread at 6.5 points in this game, if the Aggies can get even one turnover in this game and are able to turn it into points, covering 6.5 points will be easier.

In the Red Zone

Looking at the LSU offense, they have been able to get into the red zone often with 33 total trips but have struggled to turn them into touchdowns. With 19 total touchdowns in the red zone, this means they punch it in just 57% of the time. The Aggies defense will look to take advantage of the Tigers’ inefficiency as they have a Top 10 red-zone defense. In 31 red zone trips by opposing offenses, the Aggies have given up just 12 touchdowns and 22 total scores. Should the Texas A&M defense be able to turn LSU away in the red zone with stops or just giving up field goals, turning their own possessions into touchdowns could make this game more lopsided than the odds are showing.

The Historicals

Looking at the history of this rivalry, LSU leads the all-time series 34-22-3. In recent years, Texas A&M won two of the last three games, including last year’s 20-7 final. In 2018, we witnessed one of the most entertaining games in college football history where the game had to be decided in the 7th overtime by a score of 74-72 in favor of the Aggies.

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How the Public is Betting the Aggies vs. Tigers

70% are betting the Aggies to cover the spread.

64% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 45.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Texas A&M Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Texas A&M Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. teams with a losing record.
  • The Texas A&M Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games as a favorite.
  • The LSU Tigers are 5-2-1 in their last eight games as a home underdog.
  • The Under is 4-0 in the Aggies’ last four road games.
  • The Under is 4-0 in the Aggies’ previous four games as a road favorite.
  • The Under is 4-0 in the Tigers’ last four games.
  • The Texas A&M Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at LSU.
  • The Texas A&M Aggies are 0-10 ATS in their previous ten games against LSU.

Collin’s Pick to Cover the Spread

This matchup features an SEC rivalry that has balanced out in the past few years. After being dominated for nearly a decade, the Aggies have an opportunity to go into LSU and end their 2021 season with a statement win. The Texas A&M defense looks to dominate the LSU offense and shut down their pass game to keep the crowd out of the game. A 6.5-point spread is manageable for the Aggies to tackle. Take the Texas A&M Aggies to cover the spread. Bet your TAMU/Lousiana St. pick and ALL your Week 13 NCAA football picks FREE this week by scoring a 100% real cash bonus at GTBets! They have a sweet Rewards Program too!

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