SMU Mustangs (0-11 SU, 3-8 ATS) vs. UConn Huskies (2-9 SU, 2-9 ATS)
College Football Week 15
Date and Time: Saturday, December 6, 12:00pm EST
Where: Rentschler Field – East Hartford, CT
TV: CBS Sports Network
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: SMU +11.5/UCONN -11.5
Over/Under Total: 46
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Well, someone has to write an article on this game, so I guess I am the lucky soul! We have a match-up with two of the worst teams in FBS football when the 0-11 SMU Mustangs go into Connecticut to take on the 2-9 UConn Huskies. Neither team has anything to really play for except pride, and I am not sure how much of that either will have after this game whether they win or lose.
When UConn is a double digit favorite, you know something is wrong. The Huskies are favored by 11.5 over SMU and the total points are set at 46 combined. Against the spread this year, UConn’s record is identical to their actual overall record of 2-9. SMU is a little better against the spread, sitting with a 3-8 mark. As we speak, 70% of the action is on UConn to cover this spread. It tells me that many gamblers expect SMU to finish the 2014 campaign with a winless 0-12 record.
SMU is horrendous. Over 30 years ago they were one of the nations top teams and then the NCAA handed down the “death penalty” to them due to major violations. The program has yet to recover nearly four decades later. Let me take a moment to breakdown just how bad this team is. SMU is ranked 128th in the nation in scoring offense, averaging just 9.6 points per game. The scoring defense is better, well, one spot better, ranking 127th in FBS in points allowed (43.3 per game). Just listen to some of these scores that SUM has endured in 2014: 45-0, 56-0, 58-6, 43-6, and 53-7. I really do not know what else to say here about the Mustangs. Their key to victory in this game in very simple: Don’t play SMU football. This team needs to do the exact opposite of everything they have done in 2014. In other words, they need a miracle.
You may think I was intentionally bashing SMU, but I was not. They really are that bad. Now, UConn on the other hand is not that much better. At 2-9, UConns only two wins this season are against Stony Brook and a huge upset over UCF. Statistically, UConn is almost as bad as SMU. Ranking just 126th in scoring offense, and 89th in scoring defense, these teams are very similar. UConn is favored in this game simply because they are the home team, and they tend to play a little better defense, but in order to cover the 11.5, they need to shut down SMU totally. I do not see UConn scoring any more than 20 points or so, if that, so if SMU gets into double figures it will be tough to cover a double digit spread.
What a tough game to predict. When you have two teams that are this bad that have nothing to play for, you never know what will happen. If UConn was favored by 3-5 points, I would jump all over it, but I cannot trust a 2-9 team with a double digit spread. I see this game being a complete toss up and if you want to spot me almost 12 points, perfect. I think UConn wins this game 17-9, but that will not be enough to cover the spread.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: PICK THE SMU MUSTANGS +11.5 AND UNDER THE TOTAL POINTS OF 46.
