South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, September 26, 2026
7:00 PM ET, Bryant-Denny Stadium
Alabama is a 12.5-point home favorite over South Carolina with a total of 54.5. My play is the Gamecocks getting the points.
The specific quarterback matchup is the entry point here. LaNorris Sellers has faced Alabama each of the last two seasons and kept both games close. He lost by 2 points in 2024 and by 7 points in 2025. That’s a specific track record of a quarterback who can navigate Alabama’s defense and keep his team competitive regardless of the talent gap. The elite dual-threat ability Sellers brings makes him difficult to game-plan against, and he’s shown he can produce against SEC-caliber competition.
Now consider Alabama’s Week 3 game against Florida State. The Crimson Tide won 50-36 — a 14-point margin. That’s their most recent competitive game against SEC/ACC-caliber opposition, and Alabama scored 50 but also allowed 36. That’s not the profile of a defense that’s suddenly going to shut down a mobile SEC quarterback and force South Carolina into a two-touchdown deficit. Alabama’s defense has real questions after allowing 36 to FSU.
The scoreboard math also works in South Carolina’s favor. Sellers can produce 24-28 points against Alabama’s defense. Realistic Alabama offensive output is 34-38 (they scored 50 vs FSU but that game was a shootout, and Alabama won’t play that same script every week). If Alabama scores 34 and South Carolina scores 24, we get a 10-point margin — South Carolina covers +12.5 comfortably. If Alabama scores 38 and South Carolina scores 21, we get a 17-point margin — Alabama covers. The two scenarios are roughly equally likely, but the recent Sellers-vs-Alabama history skews toward the closer outcome.
DeBoer’s coaching profile also matters. He has bigger games coming up on the schedule — Georgia, LSU, and Auburn all in the next few weeks. He’s not going to expose his starters to injury in a game that could be decided by two touchdowns. Once Alabama builds a 24-10 or 27-14 lead by halftime, expect DeBoer to manage the second half by running the ball with backups and controlling the clock. That’s the exact game script that produces backdoor covers.
The 12.5-point spread is a lot in an SEC divisional matchup between two teams with real talent. Even in Alabama’s most dominant recent games against South Carolina, the margins have been 7 and 2 points. Betting on Alabama to suddenly triple that margin at home is asking for a specific outcome that hasn’t been replicated in the recent series.
Realistic outcomes: Alabama 30, South Carolina 21 (9-point margin, South Carolina covers +12.5); Alabama 34, South Carolina 24 (10-point margin, covers); Alabama 27, South Carolina 20 (7-point margin, covers by 5.5); or Alabama 42, South Carolina 21 (21-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for South Carolina, and given Sellers’s track record and DeBoer’s coaching pattern, that’s the more likely outcome distribution.
The Pick: South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5
