Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday, October 3, 2026
12:00 PM ET, Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Wake Forest is a 12.5-point home favorite over Stanford with a total of 54.5. My play is the Cardinal getting the points.
The spot is the entry point here. Wake Forest is coming off the biggest win of Jake Dickert’s second season, a 30-27 upset at No. 16 Louisville as a 12.5-point underdog, won on Connor Calvert’s 32-yard field goal with about six minutes left. Now the Deacons come home as a double-digit favorite against an unranked Stanford team, with a road trip to NC State waiting next week. That’s a classic letdown setup, and it’s a tough one in which to lay nearly two touchdowns.
Wake Forest hasn’t been blowing teams out. The Deacons are 3-1, but their wins over Power Four opponents came by two points (38-36 in double overtime at Purdue) and three points (at Louisville). The only comfortable win was a 38-16 opener against Akron, and they lost 33-20 to Miami. This is a team built to win close games. Gio Lopez threw just 19 passes against Louisville, completing 12 for 225 yards and a touchdown, and the Deacons leaned on field goals to close it out. A ball-control team that settles for field goals is not a team that covers big numbers.
Stanford’s offense is trending up under first-year coach Tavita Pritchard. Davis Warren threw for a career-high 396 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 34-27 comeback win over Georgia Tech, and Stanford erased a 20-10 halftime deficit by scoring on three straight second-half drives. Warren went 3-for-3 on fourth-down throws, including a 33-yard touchdown to Nico Brown on fourth-and-11, and Caden High scored twice. The Cardinal have put up 37 and 34 points in their two wins.
The honest concern is how Stanford has looked against good teams. The Cardinal lost 45-6 to Miami and 35-7 at Duke, and if that version of Stanford shows up, this won’t be close. But Wake Forest isn’t Miami. The Deacons gave up 33 to Miami and 27 to Louisville, and that defense can be moved on. With Warren playing his best football and a total of 54.5 pointing to plenty of points, Stanford has a path to 20-plus and a backdoor cover late.
Getting 12.5 points against a Wake Forest team whose last three games against Power Four opponents were decided by 2, 13 and 3 points is the right side of this number. The Deacons win games, but they win them close, and they’re coming off an emotional road upset.
Realistic outcomes: Wake Forest 30, Stanford 20 (10-point margin, Stanford covers +12.5); Wake Forest 31, Stanford 21 (10-point margin, covers); Wake Forest 27, Stanford 17 (10-point margin, covers by 2.5); or Wake Forest 38, Stanford 17 (21-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Stanford.
The Pick: Stanford Cardinal +12.5
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