Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas Razorbacks
Saturday, October 10, 2026
4:15 PM ET, Razorback Stadium, Fayetteville
No. 17 Tennessee is a 13.5-point road favorite over Arkansas with a total of 51.5. My play is the Under.
Arkansas can’t score against good teams. The Razorbacks lost 34-7 at Texas A&M last week and 45-17 to Georgia on September 19. First-year coach Ryan Silverfield’s offense has leaned heavily on Chris Marshall, who has 35 catches for 549 yards. That’s second in the SEC, but it means the passing game is mostly one target. Against a Tennessee defense that just held Auburn to 14 points, Arkansas will have a hard time getting into the 20s.
Tennessee has become a ground-and-pound team. DeSean Bishop ran for a career-high 220 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 24-14 win over Auburn. The Vols trailed 7-3 at halftime, and the run game carried them in the second half. That’s a clock-burning approach, and it limits possessions for both teams.
The quarterback change pushes Tennessee toward the run even more. Faizon Brandon is recovering from a shoulder injury, and George MacIntyre is reportedly set to start after replacing him against Auburn. MacIntyre was efficient in relief, completing 8 of 10 passes for 86 yards. But a quarterback making his first start on the road is a good reason to hand the ball to Bishop 30 times and play it safe. Tennessee also has Alabama coming to Knoxville next week, which is another reason to keep things simple.
The risk is the number itself. The total opened at 49.5 and has moved up to 51.5, so the market has gone the other way. If Tennessee’s offense opens up against a weak Arkansas defense, the Vols can get to 40 on their own. But Tennessee scored 24 at home against Auburn, and Arkansas scored seven at A&M. A 31-13 type of game is the likeliest outcome, and that lands comfortably under 51.5.
The Pick: Tennessee/Arkansas Under 51.5
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