Texas Christian Horned Frogs (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (11-1 SU, 7-5 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date and Time: Saturday, December 2nd, 2017 12:30 PM ET
Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, TX
by Keith F., Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TCU +7/ OU -7
Big 12 and College Football Playoff implications are on the line in this contest as the Oklahoma Sooners will have a rematch with the TCU Horned Frogs in the Big 12 Championship. The two teams have remained on course to meet again despite Oklahoma crushing TCU in Norman, a few weeks ago. Now the time has come for the two to lock horns and settle the conference overall. The contest will be aired for national audiences. The game will be televised across the country on FOX with a kick-off time of 12:30 PM ET. The contest will take place on a neutral site as it will come from the home of the Dallas Cowboys, AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. Overall, Oklahoma has won six of the previous seven meetings between the two. As mentioned already, the two met in November of this year. The affair was all Sooners as OU handed TCU a 38-20 loss in what was a top-ten clash at the time of the fixture.
The Horned Frogs come in off a dominant win on Saturday against rival Baylor. Despite all the pandemonium of rivalry week, the Frogs were not caught looking ahead to this titanic clash and took care of BU handily. The Frogs did fail however to cover a 26.5-point line as the margin of victory was 24. The Frogs like the Sooners share a loss to common opponent in Iowa State. The difference is TCU lost in Ames; Oklahoma lost in Norman. Oklahoma was in no such position against West Virginia in their Big 12 season finale either. The Sooners would lay waste to the Mountaineers in Norman by a score of 59-31. It is worth noting that WVU was without their incumbent starter at quarterback Will Grier.
The Sooners losing to Iowa State at home as a 31-point favorite is now a distant memory. Whilst Oklahoma had established a track record of playing down to the level of their opponents, the Sooners now own three big wins on their resume in the 2017 season: the blowout victory at Ohio State (another team in the mix for the last playoff berth), at Oklahoma State, and the aforementioned victory against TCU. As a result, they continue to receive a lot of love from the College Football Playoff Committee. With the chaos that ensued last week, the Sooners have been argued by many to be the #1 team in the land. We had speculated previously that TCU and Oklahoma would meet again for the Big 12 Conference Championship by virtue of the fact the top two teams in the conference standings meet again in a newly instated conference championship. This was to impress the College Football Playoff committee and leverage their ability to be a regular for top four contention. The move may actually backfire in this scenario as the conference could potentially eat itself if TCU were to win.
Out of the gate we have seen an initial lean on the Sooners and thus the price has begun to rise in some markets. Eerily enough the figure presented is exactly the same number that was offered in the previous TCU/Oklahoma meeting. This is especially unsettling considering Oklahomas margin of victory in the previous match. Albeit the game is at a neutral site but the fact remains Oklahoma should be priced higher especially given the fact they are not giving away three points thanks to home field advantage. In Over/Under markets, we have seen the number rise by a point to its current position of 62.5 reflecting action on the Over.
It is hard to beat the same team twice in the same season. This offers a competitive edge to the Horned Frogs. The number presented in this market in particular resonates with us because it makes Oklahoma look too easy in light of what it already achieved against Texas Christian earlier this season. Thus, TCU is not only in a position to cover but perhaps win outright to cause dismay in the final week of the regular season.
Keiths Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TCU +7. -If you went to the store and on the shelf was the exact same product, one for $110 and one for $105 which would you buy? The cheaper one of course! So why would you pay -110 odds on your bets instead of -105? Start betting at discounted odds today at 5Dimes!