Texas Longhorns (4-4 SU, 6-1 ATS) vs. Texas Christian Horned Frogs (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date and Time: Saturday, November 4th, 2017 7:15 PM ET
Where: Amon G. Carter Stadium Fort Worth, TX
by Keith F., Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TEX +7/TCU -7
Over/Under Total: 46.5
The Lone Star State Showdown is an evolving Big 12 rivalry series that has been a source of excitement and entertainment for many since the Horned Frogs joined the conference. Stepping in for Texas A&M after the Aggies departed to the SEC, the Horned Frog/Longhorns rivalry has been no second fiddle. Its Bevo versus Superfrog. This contest is one that will also garner plenty of attention from national audiences and it will be broadcasted on ESPN as a result. The kick-off time is scheduled for a primetime Saturday night slot at 7:15 PM ET. As of recent, the Horned Frogs have had their way in this rivalry as they won four of the previous five meetings between TCU and Texas since the rivalry series was implemented in 2012. The most recent episode in Austin was all Texas Christian as the Frogs would leap all over the Hook-Ems by a score of 31-9 in 2016.
The Horned Frogs now share something in common with another Texas rival, Oklahoma. The Frogs were also struck down by the giantkillers of college football when Iowa State defeated TCU 14-7 in Ames, last Saturday. The loss sent the Horned Frogs tumbling out of the top-five and opens the door for multiple contestants in the Big 12 race; most notably Iowa State. Nevertheless, TCU holds a firm position over the conference race be that they own a win over Oklahoma State and can firmly eliminate the Sooners with a victory against them. All TCU needs is Iowa State to trip up somewhere. However, David seems to plenty of rocks ready for his slingshot as he has already slayed two Goliaths this season. The fact remains, all of TCUs post-season aspirations still remain alive despite their loss if they win out and take the Big 12 whilst doing so.
The Longhorns didnt stumble against Iowa State. In fact, they are on the only team to beat the Cyclones within the conference this season. After losing a nasty one at home to open their season against Maryland, the Longhorns have looked like a far better football team under Tom Herman. The Longhorns lost two games in overtime by a margin of three points in each contest, the culprits being a then undefeated USC and Oklahoma State. The Longhorns also had Oklahoma on the ropes as well before they would ultimately capsize down the backstretch. On the year, the Longhorns have been a cash cow against the spread be that they were undervalued at the expense of teams that typically come into many contests overvalued. However, this contest sets up perfectly for the market to correct that narrative.
Out of the gate we have seen an initial lean on the Horns and thus the price has dropped to half of a point. The opening number is something that jumps out at us be that it is a notorious favorite number. The Horned Frogs opened as a -7.5 choice and that is a figure designed to attract attention toward Texas. With the Horned Frogs losing last week and Texas riding a hot hand against the spread, this number is likely a hook geared to entice action on the Horns. So far, it seems some have bit on that number. In Over/Under markets, we have seen the number rise by five points to its current position of 46.5 reflecting action on the Over.
Nevertheless, TCU Head Coach Gary Patterson knows how to play in high-stakes games and furthermore how to respond to let downs. For this reason, Patterson has empowered former squads to overachieve despite their season prognostication. Last year, the Horned Frogs were just above .500. Now, they are in contention for a Big 12 title. Case and point. TCU will look to get back on track against an opponent they know they can take care of business against. While the game will likely be a defensive oriented one, thus the Under is worth a look here. Nevertheless, the Horned Frogs have enough firepower to defeat the Horns and cover this number whilst doing so.
Keiths Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TEXAS CHRISTIAN -7. – If you went to the store and on the shelf was the exact same product, one for $110 and one for $105 which would you buy? The cheaper one of course! So why would you pay -110 odds on your bets instead of -105? Start betting at discounted odds today at 5Dimes!