Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, October 3, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Folsom Field
Texas Tech is a 12.5-point road favorite over Colorado with a total of 50.5. My play is the Buffaloes getting the points.
Texas Tech’s résumé is the entry point here. The defending Big 12 champions are undefeated and ranked No. 12, but they’ve played the 119th-ranked schedule in the country, with a slate that includes Abilene Christian and Sam Houston. Against FBS opponents, the Red Raiders own just a +0.6 yards-per-play differential. That’s a good team, but it isn’t a team that has been crushing quality opponents, and this is its first conference road game.
The market has already been moving toward Colorado. This game opened at Texas Tech -15.5 and has dropped to the 12.5-13.5 range. On top of that, Texas Tech is 1-4 all-time in Boulder, and Folsom Field sits at more than 5,300 feet, a tough environment for a visiting team in its first Big 12 road trip.
Colorado has a reason to expect a different offense. Julian Lewis was benched at halftime of last week’s 23-13 loss at Baylor after completing 11 of 16 passes for 75 yards and taking three sacks. Utah transfer Isaac Wilson came in and went 11 of 22 for 129 yards and a touchdown, and he’s expected to start Saturday. Wilson has targets to work with. Joseph Williams caught 11 passes for 127 yards against Baylor, and Quanell Farrakhan Jr. added a career-high 117 receiving yards. The Colorado defense also held Baylor to 23 points and forced an interception.
Deion Sanders’ teams have also been at their best against ranked opponents. Colorado is 8-2 against the spread versus ranked teams under Coach Prime, and a top-15 opponent coming to Boulder under the lights is the type of game this program circles.
The risks are real. Colorado is 2-2 and averages just 11.3 points per game against Power Four opponents, including a 41-7 loss at Northwestern. The Buffaloes have dropped seven straight Big 12 games, six of them by double digits. If the offense stalls again, Texas Tech can win comfortably. But a new quarterback, a defense that just held Baylor in check and a line that has already moved two points give Colorado a path to staying within two touchdowns.
Realistic outcomes: Texas Tech 34, Colorado 23 (11-point margin, Colorado covers +12.5); Texas Tech 31, Colorado 20 (11-point margin, covers); Texas Tech 28, Colorado 17 (11-point margin, covers by 1.5); or Texas Tech 42, Colorado 20 (22-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Colorado.
The Pick: Colorado Buffaloes +12.5
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