Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma Sooners
Red River Rivalry
Saturday, October 10, 2026
2:30 PM ET, Cotton Bowl
Texas is an 8.5-point favorite over Oklahoma with a total of 39.5 in the Red River Rivalry. My play is the Under.
These are two of the best defenses in the country. Texas ranks first nationally in opponent-adjusted EPA per play, and Oklahoma ranks third. The Sooners have allowed 64 points through four games, and 41 of those came in one game at Georgia, when their offense turned the ball over three times. When both defenses are this good, points are hard to come by on either side.
Oklahoma’s offense is the bigger problem. The Sooners rank 91st in adjusted EPA per play and haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of their last three games: 10 at Michigan, 14 against New Mexico and 13 at Georgia. In their two losses, they averaged 11.5 points. John Mateer turned it over three times in Athens, and Brent Venables admitted the staff discussed benching him at halftime. Against the No. 1 team in the country, Oklahoma will have a hard time reaching the mid-teens.
This rivalry has been a defensive slog in recent years. Texas won 34-3 in 2024 and 23-6 last season, and Oklahoma has managed only three field goals over those two meetings. Mateer threw three interceptions in last year’s game. The Under has gone 6-4 in the last 10 meetings, and Texas and Oklahoma are a combined 6-2 to the Under this season.
Texas won’t run up the score either. Arch Manning has been solid, completing 63.5% of his passes for 862 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. But the Longhorns have scored 44 total points in their two games against Power Four opponents, and Manning has one touchdown and two interceptions in those games. Both teams are coming off a bye, so both defensive staffs have had two weeks to prepare.
The risk is turnovers. Oklahoma gave Georgia an 85-yard fumble return touchdown, and a defensive or special-teams score can blow up an Under without the offenses doing much. But a 24-10 type of game is the most likely result here, and that stays under the number.
The Pick: Texas/Oklahoma Under 39.5
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