Toledo Rockets vs Illinois Fighting Illini Spread Pick

Toledo Rockets (0-0 SU, ATS 0-0) vs Illinois Fighting Illini (0-0 SU, ATS 0-0)
Date: Saturday, September 2nd
Location: Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL), Champaign, IL
TV: BTN
Point Spread: Toledo +9.5/Illinois -9.5
Money Line: Toledo +297/Illinois -381
Over/Under: 47

The Toledo Rockets and Illinois Fighting Illini matchup in a non-conference showdown at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) in Champaign, IL. The over/under for this matchup is currently 47, while Illinois is favored by -9.5.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

There wasn’t a head-to-head matchup between Illinois and Toledo last season. But looking back across their previous three head-to-head games, Illinois is 2-1. Despite their straight-up record, Toledo went 2-1 vs. the spread. Together, the teams averaged 39 points, leading to an over/under record of 1-2.

Toledo Rockets Recent Form:

Finishing last season with an overall record of 9-5, Toledo ended the season 4th in the Mid-American-West – West while going 4-1 against conference opponents. On the road, Toledo went 3-4 compared to 6-1 at home. The team wrapped up their season with a 21-19 win over Liberty in the Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl.

For the season, the Rockets were favored in just one of their 14 games and finished with an ATS record of 11-3. The Rockets’ over/under record for the season was 6-8.

Last season, Toledo was 50th in passing yards on an average of 224.9 passing yards per game. On the ground, they averaged 177.7 yards per contest (31st). For the season, they were 25th in scoring at 31.3 PPG.

The Toledo defense gave up 25.1 passing yards per contest last season, putting them 111th in the nation. Opponents threw the ball an average of 30.6 times per game vs. Toledo. Overall, their secondary was 25th in passing yards allowed (183). On the ground, they were 70th, giving up 143.3 rushing yards per game.

Away Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Illinois Fighting Illini Recent Form:

To finish their 8-5 season, the Illinois Fighting Illini fell to Mississippi State by a score of 19-10 in the Reliaquest Bowl. Overall, Illinois was 5th in the Big Ten – West on a record of 5-1. At home, last year’s team went 5-3 and 3-2 on the road.

Overall, Illinois finished the season with an over/under record of 5-8. The Fighting Illini’s ATS record of the season was 8-5, including going 3-2 on the road and 5-3 at home.

For the season, Illinois’ offense was 68th in the nation at 24.2 points per contest. In the running game, they finished 19th in attempts and 54th in yards at 167.7 yards per contest. For the season, they were 78th in passing yards while averaging 30.4 attempts per game.

The Illinois defense gave up 12.8 passing yards per contest last season, putting them 52nd in the nation. Opponents threw the ball an average of 31.9 times per game vs. Illinois. Overall, their secondary was 20th in passing yards allowed (173.7). On the ground, they were 15th, giving up 99.8 rushing yards per game.

Home Injury Report

No Injuries Reported

Betting Trends

• On the road, Toledo has gone 1-2 vs. the spread.
• Looking across Illinois’ five most recent home games, they are 4-1 against the spread.
• Illinois’ ATS record in their ten most recent games as an underdog is 7-3.
• Toledo’s record vs. the spread in their three most recent games as the favorite is 1-2.

Line Movement:

On the moneyline, Illinois has shifted from where they opened at -455 to -382, putting their implied win probability at 79%. The oddsmakers currently have Toledo’s price at +298 with an implied win probability of 25. Toledo opened at +345 on the moneyline. When looking at the point-spread line movements, Illinois has come down slightly after opening as 10-point favorites. Illinois now sits at -9.5. The total line opened at of 49, but since then, it has been bet down to its current line of 47, with the over paying out at -112 and under at -110.

Free Pick

Toledo brings most of their offense back in 2023, including dual-threat QB Dequan Finn. Illinois will have only five starters back on defense from 2022, so the Rockets might be able to exploit that. While I’m not going to predict an outright upset by the visitor, I do believe that they keep this well within the spread number. Take Toledo +9.5.