Tulsa Golden Hurricane (2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS) vs. UCF Knights (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS)
College Football Week 12
Date and Time: Friday, November 14, 8:00pm EST
Where: Bright House Networks Stadium – Orlando, FL
TV: ESPN2
by Bob, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: TUL +19/UCF -19
Over/Under Total: 55
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This Friday night after you have a nice evening with the girlfriend, wife, or whoever, kick back and tune into ESPN2 to watch an American Conference match-up between the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and the UCF Knights. UCF comes into this game at 5-3 overall and 3-1 in the conference, while Tulsa is just 2-7 overall and 2-3 in the American Conference. UCF sits in second place in the conference, and Tulsa is seventh. This game appears on paper to be a blowout in the making, but in conference games, anything can happen.
The line to this game opens with UCF as a 19 point home favorite, and the total points are set at 55. Against the spread this season, the Knights are 4-4, while the Golden Hurricane is just 3-6. As of right now, 55% of the action is on the UCF Knights, which is typically the case with a home favorite in college football. This play could go either direction seeing as how this line is nearly 20 points. Friday night, national TV, lets see how this thing plays out.
UCF is second place in the American Conference. After starting the 2014 season 0-2 with losses to Penn State and Missouri, the Knights went on to win five straight. Things appeared to look great for UCF until they lost in an upset to UConn 37-29. So far this season, the UCF defense has been the saving grace for this team. The Knights are ranked 25th in the nation in scoring defense giving up just 21.4 points per contest. The offense however, needs some major improving. UCF is ranked 117th in rushing offense, 70th in passing offense, and 88th in points scored. I have faith the UCF defense can slow Tulsa down, but in order to cover a 19 point spread, the offense is going to have to pull their weight too. That is the key to this game..scoring. UCF will need to get the offense clicking, and I think if they plan on covering this spread, they need to score at least 35 points or more.
As a 19 point underdog, it is safe to assume that Tulsa is not a good team. Tulsa is actually a top 20 passing offense, but that is where it stops. The Golden Hurricane is ranked 92nd in rushing with 144 yards a game on the ground, and 92nd in the nation in scoring offense with just 25.4 points per contest. The defense is really really bad. Tulsa ranks just 121st in scoring defense giving up 39.2 points per game. Tulsa has a fair shot to stay in this game. If quarterback, Dane Evans, can get the offense rolling, I see them being good enough to keep this close. But, if they sputter on the offensive side of the ball, and give up good field position, UCF will take advantage and run away with this game easily.
Bob’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: These late night big spread games are always tricky. We could see UCF run up the score and win by 40, or we could watch Tulsa waltz into this game and pull the upset. What makes this game even more of a toss up are the trends involved. UCF is 4-1 against the spread in their last five Friday night games while Tulsa is 11-5 against the spread coming off of a bye week. The more I read up on these two teams, the more of a toss up this spread becomes. I am going to just play the old wise guy game. If you are giving me 19 points in a conference game, I will take the 19 points. PICK TULSA +19 POINTS AND UNDER THE POSTED TOTAL POINTS OF 55.
