Southern California Trojans (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) vs. Oregon State Beavers (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS)
College Football Week 10
Date and Time: Friday, November 1st, 2013, 9:00 pm EST
Where: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, Ore.
by Badger, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: USC +5/OSU -5
Over/Under Total: 52/p>
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Two teams fighting to stay relevant in the PAC-12 Conference will do battle
in front of a national Friday Night Lights audience on ESPN2, when the USC
Trojans travel to play the Oregon State Beavers
in Reser Stadium.
Everyone knows about the Trojans of Southern Cal, the mid-season firing of head coach Lane Kiffin and the mighty USCs fall from grace, but theyre 2-1 since the firing and still have loads of talent standing along the sideline. Last weekend the Trojans rode the steady play of sophomore QB Cody Kessler (21-for-32, 230 yards, TD) to a win at home over Utah, 19-3, but the trip to Corvallis is one the Trojans always seem to dislike just as much as the rest of the PAC-12..
The home-cooking wasnt as tasty for the Beavers last week, as they lost another tough one to Stanford for just their second loss of the season, 20-12. The loss snapped the Beavers six-game win streak and almost made everyone forget that they lost to Eastern Washington at home in Reser to start the season.
Oddsmakers installed the Beavers as 4.5-point favorites when they released the opening point spread on Sunday, but with almost all of the early money coming in on the home team Beavers, the number has moved up to minus -5 or -5.5 at some sportsbooks.
The over/under total opened at 54 and has moved down to 52.
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USC is still not what everyone thought the Trojans would be on offense this season. Kessler hasnt turned the ball over, but they arent converting third-down plays (3-for-12 vs. Utah; 2-for-13 vs. ND the week before) either and that is hurting their ability to score points. Oregon State isnt a great defense, but theyre strong enough to have to make Kessler and USC work for everything they get on Friday.
Oregon State and QB Sean Mannion are carving up the record books in Corvallis this season, as the junior has already thrown for 3,200 yards and 30 touchdowns this season on 69 percent passing. USC does have a solid secondary so it will be interesting to see how well he does on Friday, but with an offense that cant move the chains on third down the Trojans have been playing a lot of snaps on defense lately.
Did I mention that USC has struggled at Reser Stadium in the past, well how does 0-5 ATS in their last five trips to Corvallis sound? This is a home-team series over the year too, since the home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight head-to-head meetings between the Beavers and Trojans.
You may want to pass on this game altogether though, since Oregon State is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games on Friday, and just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games in Reser Stadium overall.
Badgers Pick to Cover the Point Spread: This game doesn’t really offer any wagering value. If forced to make a pick, I’d take the Beavers here and that’s saying a lot because I really hate laying points. OSU hung tough with a REALLY good Stanford team. Furthermore, I make this line at -7, so there’s a smidgeon of value here, but not enough to make me open my wallet.
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