Utah at USC Week 8 Pick & Predictions

Utah Utes (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) vs. USC Trojans (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS)

College Football Week 8

Date and Time: Saturday, October 21, 2023 at 8:00 PM EDT

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California

TV: Fox

Betting Odds

Point Spread: Utah +7/Southern Cal -7 (Bovada – The best bookie on the web! Check’em out!)

Money Line:  UT +215/USC -260

Over/Under Total: 56

Game Preview

The Utah Utes come to the L.A. Coliseum on Saturday for a big Pac-12 showdown with the USC Trojans. Utah’s 34-14 win over Cal last week allowed them to bounce back from a 21-7 loss the previous week to Oregon State, their only loss of the season. USC wasn’t so fortunate, absorbing a 48-20 loss on the road to Notre Dame, also their first loss of the season. With two wins over USC last season and one the year before, the Utes look to score a win that could really help define their season. Let’s break it down!

Is Either Team Especially Vulnerable This Week?

The wheels came off for the Trojans a little ahead of schedule, but it wasn’t too hard to see coming. Their first several games saw them laying waste with their opposition. But then there was a struggle against ASU, allowing Colorado to come back in a too-close 48-41 win, and a 43-41 win over Arizona, all leading to the walloping at the hands of the Irish. The defense is a real problem and after a fast start offensively, we’re seeing more mistakes and less consistency on offense, as well. The Trojans get this at home, but are facing a team that has typically been able to bring some of these liabilities out of Southern Cal. Still, for all their close calls, non-covers, and the flop against the Fighting Irish last week, they are unbeaten in conference with a chance to still accomplish special things this season.

It reflects well on the Utes’ program that they continue to hold it together without QB Cam Rising. Their depth, coaching, and of course defense has allowed them to remain relatively intact. Against strong Pac-12 offenses like UCLA and Oregon State, they allowed a combined 35 points. Moving ahead, however, one wonders how their offensive issues will resonate at the highest levels of conference play, which a road game against USC would have to be called. And whether they can continue to be a thorn in the side of USC with their offense in this shape.

We’ve seen the Utes make several QB changes already, just with the backups to Rising. First it was Bryson Barnes, but they were getting more with Nate Johnson so they went with him, but after the 7 point output against Oregon State, they went back to Barnes, who did play well last week, assuming we’ll see more of him on Saturday. And as we’ve seen this season, one needn’t have an elite offense to get damage against done against this Southern Cal “D.”

Exploring the Matchup Angles

With a defense that can curb even strong offenses, while seeing their own offense go against a vulnerable Trojans’ defense, Utah can’t be disregarded in this spot. A large chunk of the portion of the equation that will determine the result of this lies in how much damage Utah can do against this USC defense. And it’s from this perspective where Utah’s case to win this game starts to take some hits. We see the only times the Utes have eclipsed 30 points in scoring this season was against the FCS’ Weber State and last week at home against Cal. You have the 14 points scored against UCLA, the 7 point-output against Oregon State and it’s clear that without Rising, this is going to be Utah’s main issue when playing in this context this season.

Against a good Notre Dame team on the road last week, Caleb Williams was uncharacteristic, undermining the team effort with three picks, while two other lost team fumbles made it too much to overcome. This is another tricky spot, against a Utah defense that can be quite stout, knowing the fate of the team rests in their hands. I’d expect, however, for this USC offense to be looking to make amends. Williams is not usually that errant, so I’d expect better from him and an entire USC offense that was mistake-prone last week.

Breaking it Down

The overall texture of this game could be bad news for Utah. In their current incarnation, they are looking for lower-scoring games where their “D” is in control, with their offense doing enough to get it done. But if you look at their last three wins over USC, you see they were not grinding affairs where their defense controlled the game. They were shootouts where the Utes had to put over 40 in each of those games to pull it off. Are they as equipped to handle themselves in a shootout should that unfold this week? Does USC’s biggest weakness resonate the same way with Utah’s offense less able to take advantage? Is Utah’s defense capable of some super-human performance where they keep a USC home-offense under wraps?

Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

Some things might not set up that well for the Utes this week. Even if you’re not buying into USC this season, that offense is scary and I don’t think a road Utah defense is going to curtail them to the point where their own desultory offense will be able to keep pace. USC’s defensive woes could manifest here, with Utah hitting the scoreboard with regularity. I still think points will be the name of the game and that the Trojans can out-leg Utah at home and pull away in the second half for the win and cover at home.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the USC Trojans minus 7 points.