Utah State Aggies (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) vs. N0. 25 Boise State Broncos (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS)
College Football Week 14
Date and Time: November 29, 2014, 10:15 PM ET.
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID.
by Wilson, Professional Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: UT St. +9/BSU -9
Over/Under Total: OFF
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Utah State travels to Boise State to play the Broncos on the blue turf this Saturday night for a chance to knock the Broncos out of winning the conference championship. BSUs notable win this season is over conference rival Colorado State who sits atop the MWC Mountain Division with BSU and Utah State all with 6-1 conference records. If BSU wins this weekend they will likely be in the top 25 and have a shot at more. Utah States big win this season came to then No. 18 BYU but the Cougars have since dropped out of the top 25 and never made it back up. Boise States trend at home is they hardly ever lose on the blue turf. The Aggies will bring a lot of energy and certainly cause fits for the Broncos on both sides of the ball.
Boise State is currently 17th in passing with 295 ppg and 27th in rushing yards at 218 ppg. BSU averages 40 ppg (10th in nation) and allows 28 (79th). The Broncos are not the same high powered team as they have been in recent years despite their high scoring offensethe teams in their conference are not that good. Not to take away anything from the blue turf boys as they can get into the end zone in a variety of ways. BSU QB Grant Hedrick has come on strong this season. Hedrick has 3041 yards passing and 20 TDs with 12 of those coming in the last four games. The Broncos like to strike with the long ball too as Hedrick has several TD passes and completions of 75 yards or more. With a balanced attack especially under the legs of BSU RB Jay Ajayi who has rushed for over 1300 yards and 19 TDs the Broncos will be tough to maintain at home.
The Aggies do not have the numbers offensively that Boise State possesses but they do have a consistent defense who has held opponents to 18.3 ppg this season which is good for 10th in the nation. Granted, both of these teams play in a weak conference but we all know there has to be at least one or two solid squads. Utah State can be a problem for BSU defensively with pressure on the QB and stuffing the running game. If the Aggies can stall the Broncos rushing attack they will be able to give more attention to BSUs passing threat.
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This game will be full of emotions for the Boise State Broncos as it is senior night and these guys will want to go out in style. Obviously the blue turf is a hard place to get a win, add to that a group of seniors who have won 40 games or more throughout their career and it gets that much harder. BSU leads the series over the Aggies 14-4 and has won the last 11 meetings. The Broncos are 242-51 at home for winning percentage of .826. Five of the last 6 games versus Utah State have been decided by 30 points or more and all but one have decided by double figuresit is safe to predict that Boise State at home will be tough to overcome if not for the Aggies to even keep the game close.
BSU is hoping to remain perfect for the month of November for the first time since 2009. If the Broncos win this game they will probably host the Sports Authority Mountain West Football Championship on December 6.
Boise State is ridiculously good on the blue turf! The Aggies have had a great season but it ends in a sea of blue Saturday night. The Broncos balanced offensive attack is too much for the Aggies to handle. Although Utah State has impressive defensive numbers they will not keep the Broncos out of the end zone. I like BSU minus the points.
Wilson’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: BSU minus the points.