Utah State Aggies (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) vs. Utah Utes (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS)
College Football Week 2
Date/Time: Friday, September 11, 9:00pm
Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium Salt Lake City, UT
TV:
by BobCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: USU +13.5/UTA -13.5
Over/Under Total: 44p>
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Friday night in Salt Lake City, Utah, we have an instate rivalry game between the Utah State Aggies and the Utah Utes. Both teams are coming off wins in week one. Utah State had a close battle with Southern Utah winning only 12-9, while the Utah Utes took down the Michigan Wolverines 24-17. The Utah win was a tad more impressive, however, when you get two instate teams together and one of them has something to prove, anything can happen.
The line on this game opens with Utah as a 13.5 point favorite over Utah State. As mentioned earlier, both teams come in at 1-0 overall, but Utah is 1-0 ATS while Utah State was unable to cover against Southern Utah. The total points in this game are set at 44 combined. By taking a quick look this morning at the early betting patterns, over 65% of the public is placing their money on the Utah Utes while only 35% has faith that the Aggies can keep it within two touchdowns. Since 2002, the Aggies have defeated the Utes just once, and that was in 2012. Utah has owned the Utah State overall, but against the spread, Utah has only covered two of the last five meetings. I can see this game going either way ATS, even though I think Utah will win regardless.
Utah is coming off a great home win over Michigan. Yes, Michigan is somewhat rebuilding with their new coach, Jim Harbaugh, but nonetheless, it was a great win over a Big Ten opponent. As I mentioned earlier, Utah has owned this series and I think this year they are heads and shoulders better than Utah State. Also, by looking at the week one results, the average person would just assume that Utah State is not on the same level as Utah due to the close game with Southern Utah. I have learned many times the hard waydo not let week one results form your overall opinion of a team. I have been burned on this many times. The key to Utah getting this cover is to play the same defense they did against Michigan. The Wolverines had a tough time throwing on the Utes, and if they can repeat that effort, I do not see Utah State hanging around very long. With that said, if Utah does not bring the same intensity that they did last week, they could very easily find themselves in a dog fight late in the fourth quarter.
Utah State is 1-0 but their win was quite unimpressive. Against Southern Utah, they only gained 110 yards through the air on 33 attempts. If this is any indication how the passing game will be, it could be a very long day for the Aggies. The run game was pretty solid however, they were able to get 140 yards on 35 carries for an average of 4 a carry. In order to win this game however, the offense MUST be balanced. A one dimensional game plan will not work against the Utes. If Utah State can get clicking in both the run game and the pass game, I have faith they can keep it close. If not.ouch.
A 13.5 point spread is tough, and I love taking the dogs in games like this. All signs point to Utah winning this game big. The week one results, the teams on paper, the public perception, the reputation of the programs, etc, etc. There is nothing that tells me to take Utah State plus the points. And this is exactly why I am doing it. The 13.5 seems too easy in favor of Utahthat usually means it is. I like Utah to win the game, but I do not see a blowout. Utah wins this game 27-16 or something like that.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I like the Utah State Aggies to keep it closer than expected and cover the 13.5. I also like this game to stay slow paced and stay under the 44 points that are posted in Vegas. UTAH STATE +13.5 / UNDER 44 points. Lets get this win!
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