Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Best Bet

by | Last updated Oct 4, 2023 | cfb

Vanderbilt Commodores (2-4 SU, 0-6 ATS) vs. Florida Gators (3-2 SU, 1-4 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date/Time: Saturday, October 7th, 2023. 4:00 PM (EST)
Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: VANDY +18/UF -18
Moneyline: VANDY +660/UF -1000
Total: 53.5

Last week, the Florida Gators suffered one of the more embarrassing losses in recent memory in a 33-14 beating against the Kentucky Wildcats. It was the Gators’ 2nd loss of the season marked by poor performance on the offensive side of the football, specifically in the run game where Florida has been held to less than 85 yards on the ground, combined, in both of their losses this season. On Saturday, Florida will attempt to get the offense back on track in an advantageous match-up against the Vanderbilt Commodores as relatively large 18-point favorites.

The visiting Commodores are among just 4 teams remaining in college football that have failed to cover a single game this season. In fact, Vanderbilt’s 0-6 mark against the spread is the worst record in all of college football. The Commodores’ latest failure to cover the number included a 38-21 defeat at the hands of Missouri. The story of that game was very similar to the storyline over the last several games which highlighted the weaknesses of the Vanderbilt defense which gave up nearly 400 passing yards and 4 touchdowns to Tigers QB Brady Cook. The reason the Commodores are relatively large 18-point underdogs this week against the 3-2 SU Florida Gators is because this match-up plays into the hands of the Gators offense behind QB Graham Mertz.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Betting Analysis

The Gators have been just double-digit favorites five times against SEC opponents over the last 3 seasons and have produced a lousy 1-4 mark ATS during that time. Ironically, their only cover was a 42-0 shutout against Vanderbilt back in 2021. For this week’s match-up, I highly doubt the Gators will be able to pitch another shutout especially given the fact that the Commodores have moved the ball respectably. Starting QB AJ Swann missed last week’s game against Missouri with an elbow injury but is expected to be back under center this weekend. Swann gives Vanderbilt’s offense opportunities to be successful but has shown poor decision making which has led to turnovers. I expect those will be the same challenges again against a better Florida defense on Saturday.

With that being said, I believe the match-up that will determine how this 18-point spread unfolds will be when the Gators offense is on the field. As I mentioned earlier, Vanderbilt has been unable to stop opposing passing offenses allowing 260 yards per game through the air. Gators QB is playing at a high level completing 79% of his passes for nearly 1,200 yards through 5 games despite Florida’s attempts to remain loyal to the running game. I believe that the run game will get back on track this weekend against an inferior defensive front in Vanderbilt and when that happens I expect opportunities to open up down the field. Personally, this just feels like a bounce-back spot for Florida and the match-up really favors the Gators on the offensive side of the football.

Best Parlays

2 Team Parlay 3 Team Parlay 4 Team Parlay
sportsbetting 2.64 to 1 6 to 1 12.3 to 1
Bovada 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1
Mybookie 2.64 to 1 5.95 to 1 12.3 to 1

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Betting Trends

  • Vanderbilt is 0-7 ATS in the last 7 games.
  • Vanderbilt is 1-5 SU in the last 6 games on the road.
  • Vanderbilt has hit the “over” in 5 of the last 6 games.
  • Vanderbilt is 3-7 ATS in the last 10 games against SEC opponents.
  • Florida is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games.
  • Florida has hit the “under” in 6 of the last 9 games.
  • Florida is 7-1 SU in the last 8 games at home.
  • Florida is 4-2 ATS in the last 6 games against Missouri.
More Free CFB Picks: Ball/EMU Week 6 Betting Preview & Bet >>>

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Betting Prediction

I believe this is the perfect bounce-back spot for Florida based on the match-up on the offensive side of the football. Additionally, I believe the Gators’ defense has a pretty high ceiling this week as well. As a result, I am going to lay the points with the Gators to bounce back in a big way.

Jay’s Pick: Take Florida -18

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