Wake Forest Demon Deacons (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS)
College Football Week 6
Date and Time: Saturday October 4th, 2014. 3:30PM EST
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee, F.L.
TV: ABC
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: Wake +39/FSU -39
Over/Under Total: 55
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After a few scary games against Clemson and North Carolina State, the top ranked Florida State Seminoles found ways to pull out victories to remain unbeaten and keep their quest towards a repeat National Championship alive. Two weeks ago, the Seminoles appeared destined for a loss against Clemson. The Tigers were running out the clock to setup a game winning field goal before fumbling the ball away in the closing minutes. The Seminoles ended up pulling out the victory in overtime 23-17 despite playing the entire game without Heisman Trophy winning quarterback Jameis Winston. Then last week the Seminoles came back from a 24-7 first quarter deficit to beat NC State in a 56-41 shootout in yet another show of overcoming adversity. This week Florida State should have a bit of an easier matchup as they go on the road against the struggling Wake Forest Demon Deacons as huge 39 point favorites.
The Demon Deacons are just 2-3 on the season with losses to UL Monroe, Utah State, and then a 20-10 loss last week to Louisville. In fact, Wake Forest has followed a simple pattern this season which has appeared: loss, win, loss, win, loss. If that pattern holds true, the Demon Deacons should be winning this week, right? Perhaps there is a slight miraculous type of chance for it to happen but there is a reason that the Demon Deacons are 39 point underdogs. Florida State is starting to come together offensively which could be scary for every team in the ACC, not just Wake Forest.
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The biggest reason that Demon Deacons are such large underdogs this week is their inability to move the football on offense. Wake Forest ranks towards the bottom of the nation in nearly every major offensive category. The Demon Deacons FBS ranks are: 95th in passing, 128th in rushing, and 116th in scoring. Wake Forest quarterback John Wolford has tossed 10 interceptions with just 6 touchdowns through the first 5 games of the season. Since the Demon Deacons cannot move the football at all on the ground, they have to keep throwing the football with Wolford and that formula has simply not worked to this point in the season. If you throw in Florida States extremely talented defense into the equation this Saturday, it would not be hard to imagine Florida State getting off the field quick to keep their offense on the short side of the field and possibly getting a few more turnovers. If that happens, Florida States emerging offense could easily hang another big point total on the scoreboard if those situations play out.
Jameis Winston finally had a strong showing last week after a slow start to his 2014 campaign. Winston completed 26 of 38 passing for 365 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. It was the 2nd time in 3 starts this year that Winston threw two interceptions which is a bit odd considering he threw just 10 in all of 2013. Still, the offense seems to be settling in after a slow start and WR Rashad Greene has emerged as the true star on the offensive side of the ball. Greene has brought in 35 catches for 543 yards and 3 touchdowns through the Seminoles first 3 games. The senior wide out has all the tangibles of a next level player and he should be in line for another big game this weekend against a rather weak Wake Forest secondary. It will be interesting to see if Florida State can hook up on some of those big plays down the field and jump on Wake Forest early. The Seminoles have yet to cover a contest this year going 0-4 ATS in 2014 and they will have to put together a strong offensive performance to cover the 39 points they will be laying come Saturday.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Florida State has dominated Wake Forest in the last two meetings by a combined score of 111-3. However this Seminoles team has not quite shown the ability to dominate on either side of the ball quite yet. Considering this weeks huge 39 point spread, it is simply too large of a number to lay on a Seminoles team that has failed to meet expectations thus far. Take Wake Forest +39
