Washington Huskies at USC Trojans
Saturday, October 3, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
USC is a 9.5-point home favorite over Washington with a total of 57.5. My play is the Huskies getting the points.
Washington’s defense is the entry point here. Jedd Fisch’s Huskies are allowing just 16.8 points and 289.3 yards per game, 34th nationally in total defense. They held each of their first three opponents to 16 points or fewer, beating Washington State 24-10, Utah State 16-14 and Eastern Washington 48-16. The 27 points they gave up in last week’s 27-24 loss to Minnesota were the most they’ve allowed all season, and even that was a three-point game.
USC’s defense is the bigger question in this matchup. The Trojans are allowing 26.4 points per game and rank 99th nationally in defensive efficiency. They gave up 504 yards and 41 points to Oregon last week, and most of the damage came in the second half after Oregon’s starting quarterback, Dante Moore, left with an injury and backup Dylan Raiola took over. A defense that can’t get stops against a backup quarterback is a defense that will struggle to put away a Washington team that plays close games.
USC’s offense can move the ball, but it stalled when it mattered against Oregon. Jayden Maiava threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns, and the Trojans out-gained Oregon in first downs (26 to 23), but they converted just 2 of 8 third downs and lost by 14. USC averages 39.8 points per game and 325 passing yards (ninth nationally), so it will score. But that third-down inefficiency against a disciplined Washington defense is the type of thing that keeps a game inside double digits.
Washington’s offense is the honest risk. The Huskies rank 124th in rushing at 107.3 yards per game, and they score just 28.0 points per game. Fisch is calling plays himself this season, and Demond Williams Jr. will need to carry the offense through the air. But against a USC pass defense that has struggled all year, Washington should find enough to stay within striking distance, and the Huskies’ defense keeps the margin from getting away.
Both teams are coming off a loss, and USC has now dropped five straight to Oregon. The Trojans will be motivated at home on national television, but motivation doesn’t fix a defense ranked 99th nationally, and 9.5 points is a lot to lay against a team that hasn’t lost by more than three all season.
Realistic outcomes: USC 30, Washington 23 (7-point margin, Washington covers +9.5); USC 31, Washington 24 (7-point margin, covers by 2.5); USC 28, Washington 21 (7-point margin, covers by 2.5); or USC 35, Washington 24 (11-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Washington.
The Pick: Washington Huskies +9.5
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