Week 12 Picks: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Kentucky Wildcats

by | Last updated Nov 17, 2022 | cfb

Georgia Bulldogs (10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. Kentucky Wildcats (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 19, 3:30 p.m.

Where: Commonwealth Stadium, Lexington, Ky.


Point Spread: UGA -22.5/UK +22.5 (Make GA a -2.5 fav or Ken. a +42.5 underdog by entering either into a massive college football teaser found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!)

Total: O/U 49.5


Does Kentucky have anything left in the tank? The Wildcats seem like they’re done at this point in the season, as they’ve shown no consistency since the loss at Mississippi and have only been able to win defensive struggles against Missouri and Mississippi State since that game. They have gone back and forth between covering and not covering, but this offense just doesn’t seem like it has the ability to produce much of anything, and the Wildcats gave off the appearance of a team with nothing left to play for last week against Vanderbilt.

Georgia simply needs to not stub its toe in two very winnable games before facing LSU. The Bulldogs know that if they win their final two games of the season and the SEC title game, they will be the No. 1 seed and likely get a lesser opponent in their semifinal. Lose one of these games, and the Dawgs can still get in with a win in the SEC title game, but they’d have to go to the Fiesta Bowl instead of getting to stay home in the Peach Bowl. That shouldn’t be a problem in this game; Georgia is 6-0 against Kentucky since Kirby Smart took over, hasn’t lost in Lexington since 2006, and holds a 30-5 record against the SEC East in Smart’s tenure. The only question here is whether the Bulldogs allow Kentucky to stay in the game or go for the jugular.

How the Public is Betting the Georgia/Kentucky Game

The public doesn’t know what to do, and the sharps either don’t want to touch this number or think it’s right where it should be. The public has put 51% of tickets on Georgia, and neither the spread nor the total has moved.

Injury Concerns

Offensive lineman Earnest Greene III (leg), linebacker Nolan Smith (pectoral), wide receiver Adonai Mitchell (ankle), defensive back Dan Jackson (foot), linebacker C.J. Washington (neck), offensive lineman Drew Bobo (shoulder) and running back Andrew Paul (knee) are out.

Wide receiver Chris Lewis (undisclosed) is questionable. Defensive end Sam Anaele (undisclosed) and running back Ramon Jefferson (knee) are out.

When Georgia Has the Ball

Stetson Bennett has to stop throwing the ball on the run if Georgia is going to defend its national title. The Bulldogs were never in danger against Mississippi State, but they made the game closer than it should have been because of two poor decisions on Bennett’s part that became Mississippi State field goals. Georgia won’t be in any danger against Kentucky, but the Bulldogs do need to get those cleaned up before they head to Atlanta for the SEC title game.
Kentucky’s defense does defend the pass well, so Georgia might opt to use this game to get the running game some needed work. Daijun Edwards and Kenny McIntosh have been middling at best this season, and Kendall Milton doesn’t get enough touches, so there aren’t a lot of great showings on the part of the Bulldog running game this season. Georgia is likely to use this week and next to ensure it’s as ready as possible to take on LSU.

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When Kentucky Has the Ball

The Will Levis hype train has fully crashed and burned after a home loss to Vanderbilt, which saw Kentucky manage just 322 yards of offense. The Wildcats don’t really do much well when it comes to passing, as Levis threw for a mere 109 yards and an interception against a team that had lost 26 in a row in the SEC.
The good news is that Kentucky can usually count on Chris Rodriguez to move the ball consistently on the ground. The bad news is that Georgia is not one of the opponents against whom that applies. The Wildcats went nowhere running the ball on last year’s Georgia defense, as Rodriguez managed seven yards on seven carries. Tennessee and Mississippi both slowed him down and stopped the Wildcats cold, and Georgia is likely to do something similar in this game. If Kentucky isn’t running the ball successfully, it’s not going to do much of anything on offense.

More Picks: Get our UAB vs. LSU Week 12 betting analysis pl;us pick ATS

Betting Trends

Unless Georgia gives up another punt return or other special teams touchdown, it’s difficult to see Kentucky getting over its team total of 13.5. The Wildcats have only hit that number on Georgia twice in the past seven meetings and have played to the under nine times in 10 games this year overall. Georgia doesn’t usually play overs either, as the Dawgs usually do enough on defense to keep the opponent from doing its share of the scoring.

Kentucky does usually play up to its competition, going 20-6-2 ATS in its last 28 against a team above .500. However, Georgia takes advantage of its road disadvantage: the Dawgs are 37-15 ATS in their last 52 road games.

Weather Report

The SEC does play occasional cold-weather games with Kentucky and Missouri in the conference, and this one won’t be too far off. The temperature will sit around 37 degrees with the wind dropping that under freezing, as wind will be sustained at 12 miles per hour going southwest, and gusts will blow at up to 23 miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

It’s hard to see Kentucky doing much of anything against the Georgia defense. The Wildcats can’t throw in the best of conditions, and with these being anything but good conditions, expect Kentucky’s passing offense to be forced into terrible situations from beginning to end in this game.

The Wildcats aren’t likely to find any success against the Georgia run defense. As long as Bennett or the special teams don’t do anything stupid this week, the Dawgs should cruise here. Give me Georgia. Be sure to check out the best page on our site: Our Free Picks page! These are 100% no cost to you and dont by our BEST handicappers!