Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Betting Preview | Bovada Odds, Best Bets & Picks

by | Last updated Mar 4, 2026 | golf

Arnlod Palmer Best Bets

The PGA Tour heads to Orlando this week for one of the toughest non-major stops on the schedule, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge. The field is stacked with elite talent and the betting board reflects it, with Scottie Scheffler opening as the clear favorite at +330 according to Bovada)

Outright Winner

Collin Morikawa +2200

Bay Hill is a second-shot exam. Morikawa’s approach play gives him the cleanest path to winning without needing a heater with the driver. If the leaderboard gets tight late, I’d rather be holding elite irons than “hope-and-pray” wedges from the rough.

Outright Value

Russell Henley +3500

He’s a steady, fairways-and-irons type who can hang around while others bleed bogeys. In a tough-scoring event, that consistency is exactly what you want at a mid-tier number.

Top 5 Finish

Rory McIlroy +180

If Rory’s driver is behaving, he’s built for Bay Hill. This is a nice way to back him without needing the outright to cash.

Top 20 Finish

Shane Lowry -115

Lowry’s game plays in the wind and in the grind. Bay Hill asks you to accept stress for four days—Lowry is comfortable living there.

Market Add (Optional): Winner Without Scottie Scheffler

Collin Morikawa +1400 (Winner W/O Scheffler)

If you don’t want to pay +330 on Scheffler but still want “real” win equity, this is the hedge-friendly lane. You’re basically saying: “Scottie or my guy.”

Market Add (Optional): 2 Chances

Scottie Scheffler / Rory McIlroy +190

For bettors who like to keep it simple: two true win-equity players at a playable number. It’s not a lottery ticket, but it’s a clean portfolio anchor.

Matchup Leans (Price Dependent)

Note: You didn’t paste the head-to-head list, so these are “lean” plays to target if you see typical matchup pricing around -110/-115.

  • Morikawa over Fleetwood — give me the iron ceiling on a second-shot course.
  • Fitzpatrick over Hovland — Bay Hill punishes misses; I’ll lean to the grinder profile.
  • Henley over Cameron Young — consistency + course management over volatility.

Best Bet

Shane Lowry Top 20 (-115)

Cleanest combination of number + course fit + “doesn’t beat himself” profile.

Projected Winning Score

-10 (give or take depending on wind/firmness)

Projected Final Score

Morikawa wins at -10 over Scheffler and McIlroy in the final grouping mix.

Final Betting Card

  • Outright: Collin Morikawa +2200
  • Outright (Value): Russell Henley +3500
  • Top 5: Rory McIlroy +180
  • Top 20: Shane Lowry -115
  • Optional: Morikawa (Winner W/O Scheffler) +1400
  • Optional: Scheffler / McIlroy (2 Chances) +190

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