Arlington Million Predictions: Integration and Fort Washington vs Cairo

Arlington Million Picks

• Integration
• Fort Washington
• Cairo
• Mystik Dan

Arlington Million Longshots

Vesting, Time Song, Runaway Storm

Arlington Million Analysis

The 2025 Arlington Million on Saturday has drawn a solid field of eight, including a Kentucky Derby winner, a U.S. first-timer, and a Colonial Downs horse-for-course. With last year’s Million hero absent, a new Grade 1 winner is guaranteed to emerge. None of these contenders has yet won a Grade 1 on turf.

The lineup features a compelling mix: Integration, the local specialist and morning-line favorite, will square off against his stablemate Fort Washington and Cairo, a globetrotting Irish-bred newcomer, while Mystik Dan, the 2024 Kentucky Derby victor, tries the grass for the first time.

Integration has been a model of consistency and looms as the horse to beat on his home turf. The Shug McGaughey trainee thrives at Colonial Downs, winning three of four lifetime starts here, a record that includes a Virginia Derby victory in 2023 and a good second in last year’s Arlington Million. He returns after competing against the nation’s best turf horses all season, finishing first or second in four of his last five starts, including multiple narrow defeats in Grade 1 company. A son of Quality Road bred in Virginia, Integration brings tactical versatility and a relentless finish. His familiarity with the course and steady string of triple-digit speed figures make him a deserving favorite to finally earn an elusive Grade 1 win.

Fort Washington, another McGaughey runner, is a major player with solid credentials. This 6-year-old War Front horse scored back-to-back Grade 3 wins this spring and has been a reliable check-getter in graded stakes. His pedigree and style suggest the distance is within reach, though this will be his first try at it.

Cairo ships in from Europe and could prove a formidable challenger. Trained by Alice Haynes, this Irish-bred has kept top-class company overseas despite a win drought over the last two seasons. He ran a strong third in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and has multiple placings in major stakes across the UK and Dubai. His Queen Anne effort earned a figure on par with Integration’s best. His race in the Grade 3 Dubai Millennium at Saturday’s distance is also worth watching. Cairo arrived early to acclimate and has looked comfortable over the local turf. His tactical versatility and proven stamina at 1¼ miles make him a prime contender.

Mystik Dan is the wild card. The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner tries turf for the first time, a bold move by trainer Kenny McPeek. His dirt résumé is formidable, and while his sire is not known for turf influence, the dam’s side may offer grass potential. He has trained well on turf in the mornings and draws the rail, which could see him use his natural speed to secure position. Turf inexperience is the big question mark, but his raw class makes him intriguing.

Grand Sonata, from the Todd Pletcher barn, owns the field’s largest bankroll and is proven over longer distances, though his best turn of foot might come at marathon trips. Hr has enough class to hit the board if the top choices falter.

Among the longshots, Vesting is improving sharply since joining Mike Maker’s barn, posting back-to-back career-best figures at longer distances. The cutback could help him stay within striking range. Time Song is likely to show early speed and could stick around for a piece if able to relax on the lead. Runaway Storm brings grit and a daring front-running style; if he settles just off the lead, he could hold on longer than expected.

With multiple speed types signed on, a solid pace is expected. Time Song and Runaway Storm are natural front-runners, with Mystik Dan potentially adding pressure from the rail. This should favor stalkers like Integration and Fort Washington, and Cairo could even get the jump on those two into the stretch with the right trip. The long Colonial stretch gives closers a fair shot, but pace and positioning will be key.

We’ll play Integration to win and place, as his local course affinity and reliable form make him a strong anchor. We’ll also box Integration and stablemate Fort Washington in the exactor, and take additional tickets keying Integration over Cairo, and Mystik Dan, reversing those for half the amount. For trifectas, we’ll take Integration and Fort Washington on top with Cairo, Mystik Dan, Vesting, and one of the speed horses underneath, and do similar in our superfectas.

Hoping the McGaughey stablemates can run 1-2!