Kentucky Derby (G1) | Churchill Downs, Race 12 | Saturday, May 3, 2025
Purse: $5 Million | Distance: 1 1/4 Miles | Surface: Dirt
Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
2025 Kentucky Derby Picks
- #8 Journalism (3-1)
- #18 Sovereignty (5-1)
- #21 Baeza (12-1)
- #1 Citizen Bull (20-1)
2025 Kentucky Derby Longshots
#7 Luxor Café (15-1), #17 Sandman (6-1), #9 Burnham Square (12-1), #10 Grande (20-1), #12 East Avenue (20-1), #16 Coal Battle (30-1)
2025 Kentucky Derby Horse-By-Horse Analysis
1. Citizen Bull (20-1)
Summary: An accomplished front-runner as last year’s 2-year-old champion, Citizen Bull brings formidable early speed but must rebound from a subpar final prep and overcome the rail draw. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had this colt on a stellar juvenile campaign, including a gate-to-wire win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, Citizen Bull faded to fourth in the Santa Anita Derby after failing to secure an easy lead, raising questions about his stamina at classic distances and his ability to win without the lead.
Speed Figures & Class: Earned top Equibase 107 as a juvenile (mid-90s Beyer equivalent) in Grade 1 races. This spring he was beaten 9¾ lengths by Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert insists he wasn’t fully cranked in that prep and expects improvement at Churchill Downs. Stretching out to 1¼ miles after weakening at 1⅛ is a concern.
Running Style & Post: Confirmed pacesetter who needs the lead. Post #1 is tricky—no Derby winner from the rail since 1986. Baffert plans to “send aggressively.” With other speed signed on, a hot pace is likely; Citizen Bull must either outsprint them early or rate (an unproven tactic). Blinkers remain on.
Trainer/Jockey & Prep/Works: Trainer Bob Baffert and rider Martin Garcia. Final Santa Anita workout: 5f in 58.47 seconds, indicating sharp form. If he breaks well and secures the lead, he can steal a share at a price, but stamina remains the key question.
2. Neoequos (30-1)
Summary: Has shown tactical speed in Florida preps but unproven at classic distances. Projects as a pace-pressing longshot who may struggle late in the Derby’s 10 furlongs.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~100 (low-90s Beyer). Competitive but not dominant in graded stakes: third in Fountain of Youth (1 1/16) and Florida Derby (1⅛) after contesting pace. Belongs class-wise but lacks closing punch beyond a mile.
Running Style & Post: Presses pace. Post #2 can save ground into turn but risks speed duel with Citizen Bull inside and other speed outside. Likely to duel early and tire; stamina for 1¼ miles is a question.
Trainer/Jockey & Prep Notes: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. seeks first Derby win. Jockey Luis Saez, aggressive ride, likely hustles into a forward spot. Lasix-free prep races (as required). Consistent but appears a notch below top contenders; mid-pack finish would be respectable.
3. Final Gambit (30-1)
Summary: Jeff Ruby Steaks winner with no dirt starts. Turf/synthetic pedigree; deep closer. Seeks to emulate Rich Strike with late rally if pace melts.
Speed Figures & Class: Best Equibase ~96 (Beyer ~90) in Jeff Ruby. Quality of that win high: rallied from last to win by 3½ lengths. Class: Grade 3 win, 100 Derby points. Big “if” on translating synthetic form to Churchill dirt against Grade 1 company.
Running Style & Post: Deep closer from post #3. Jockey Luan Machado to drop back, angle wide, hope for pace meltdown. Derby distance may suit pedigree (Not This Time x Tapit). Dirt question looms.
Trainer/Jockey & Prep Notes: Trainer Brad Cox; Machado Derby rookie. Final Churchill work a maintenance breeze. No equipment changes. Intriguing exotics longshot if he replicates closing kick on dirt.
4. Rodriguez – SCRATCHED
5. American Promise (30-1)
Summary: Seasoned colt with 9 starts, recent Virginia Derby win by 7¾ lengths showing stamina and early engagement. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas seeks fifth Derby win. Pace-pressing type peaking late; speed figs just below favorites but improving.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~102 (Beyer ~95). Earlier prep underwhelming, but Virginia Derby performance signals improvement. Class-wise: graded stakes runner-up and eventual stakes winner.
Running Style & Post: Presses/stalks pace; post #5 likely to secure a stalking spot. Robust Justify–Tapit pedigree for 10 furlongs. Needs career-best again to hit top spots.
Trainer/Jockey & Other Factors: Lukas (88) chasing fifth Derby; jockey Nik Juarez in first Derby, likely aggressive. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Experienced battler but needs peak effort to crack top tier.
6. Admire Daytona (30-1)
Summary: Japanese-bred UAE Derby winner via Europe/Mideast Road. Speedy front-runner facing quick turnaround and top U.S. competition. Travel fatigue and pace pressure are concerns.
Speed Figures & Class: No North American figures; UAE Derby equivalent mid-90s Beyer. Modest Japanese form before UAE Derby. Class: one Grade 2–equivalent win but overall hard to gauge; UAE winners often struggle in Kentucky.
Running Style & Post: Pure pace from post #6. Jockey Christophe Lemaire to secure forward position; if pressed hard, may fade. Derby distance and kickback unknowns.
Trainer/Jockey & Preparation: Trainer Yukihiro Kato, rider Lemaire. Light final workouts at Churchill to maintain condition. Brave but faces long trip, pace pressure, and dirt adaptation challenges.
7. Luxor Café (15-1)
Summary: Japan Road qualifier, 4-for-4 on dirt in Japan, stalking style. Pedigree (American Pharoah x More Than Ready) suggests stamina/versatility. No Japanese horse has won Derby yet, but near-miss recently.
Speed Figures & Class: Likely mid-90s Beyer equivalent. Four straight Japanese dirt stakes wins; earnings ~$379k. Classable, though Japanese competition may differ.
Running Style & Post: Presses or tracks pace from post #7. Jockey João Moreira (Derby inexperience) to navigate mid-pack/tracking trip. Needs to handle crowd, kickback, adapt form to Churchill.
Trainer/Jockey & Intangibles: Trainer Noriyuki Hori. No Lasix/blinkers changes. Stateside training reportedly smooth. Could contend for minors; win is tall order but not impossible given dominance overseas.
8. Journalism (3-1) – Morning-Line Favorite
Summary: Deserving favorite: Curlin colt with 4-for-5 record, including Santa Anita Derby win. Tactical stalker with strong finishing kick. Trained by Michael McCarthy, ridden by Umberto Rispoli. Versatile, handles adversity, projects to handle Derby distance and traffic.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~110 (triple-digit Beyers). Grade 1 and Grade 2 wins: San Felipe, Los Alamitos Futurity, Santa Anita Derby. Pedigree (Curlin x Uncle Mo) ideal for 10 furlongs. No form lapses.
Running Style & Post: Stalker from post #8: likely mid-pack (5th–7th early), avoiding early duel and deep closers. Good traffic navigation. With expected fast pace, should be poised at the quarter pole to strike.
Trainer/Jockey & Prep/Equipment: McCarthy seeking first Derby as head trainer; Rispoli Derby rookie but top California rider. Strong Santa Anita works; Lasix-free; no blinkers. Trip-luck key but form and style make him the one to beat on paper.
9. Burnham Square (12-1)
Summary: Consistent closer, 3 wins and 3 placings in 6 starts; won Blue Grass Stakes by nose in slow time. Trained by Ian Wilkes, ridden by Brian Hernandez Jr. Strong late kick; will relish 1¼ miles with hot pace.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~104. Competitive, consistent high-90s to low-100s Beyers. Grade 1 class earned, gelding focus advantage. Pedigree (Liam’s Map x Scat Daddy) adequate for distance.
Running Style & Post: Deep closer from post #9; Hernandez to tuck in, save ground, navigate traffic. Needs clear path and fast early fractions. Could storm late into exotics, maybe upset if trip unfolds perfectly.
Trainer/Jockey & Other Factors: Wilkes prepared Mystik Dan’s deep run previously. Hernandez Jr. familiar with Derby, Churchill. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Steady improvement suggests a strong contender for minors or upset if pace favors.
10. Grande (20-1)
Summary: Lightly raced (3 starts) Curlin colt for Repole Stable, second in Wood Memorial on first stakes try. Trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey John Velazquez. Talent and pedigree strong, but inexperience significant obstacle in 20-horse field.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~106 (Beyer ~97) in Wood. Maiden and allowance wins earlier. No stakes win yet, but Wood performance shows graded ability and scope for improvement.
Running Style & Post: Stalker/mid-pack from post #10. Velazquez to tuck in or track pace depending on early splits. Inexperience in large field a concern; pedigree (Curlin x War Front) hints stamina but trip-luck critical.
Trainer/Jockey & Preparation: Pletcher and Velazquez experienced; morning works simulate scenarios. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Could hit board if improves and navigates traffic, though win is unlikely given seasoning.
11. Flying Mohawk (30-1)
Summary: Deep closer from turf/synthetic, no dirt starts. Trained by Whit Beckman, jockey Joseph Ramos. Needs absolute pace meltdown; true outsider with dirt adaptation unknown.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~97; turf/all-weather form only. Grade 3 runner-up on synthetic. Likely falls short vs. dirt specialists; biggest question dirt aptitude and ability to overcome kickback.
Running Style & Post: Deep closer from post #11. Hopes for blistering pace; must handle kickback and navigate through many tiring horses. Most likely a middle-to-late pack finish; any improvement is experience for later turf career.
Trainer/Jockey & Notes: Beckman second Derby attempt; Ramos debut Derby. Schooling in gate and kickback; no blinkers, Lasix-free. True longshot for minor awards only if extreme pace collapse.
12. East Avenue (20-1)
Summary: Speedy colt for Godolphin/Brendan Walsh. Won Blue Grass near-wire with blinkers. Adds pace element; could steal if uncontested, or ensure honest fractions. Crowded field and distance are concerns.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~104 (Beyer ~96) in Blue Grass runner-up. Strong juvenile form; pedigree (Medaglia d’Oro x Ghostzapper) implies stamina. Blinkers helped focus.
Running Style & Post: Likely pacesetter from post #12. Jockey Manny Franco to send or sit just off Citizen Bull. If left alone, dangerous; if hooked into duel, may fade. Will influence pace scenario even if not winning.
Trainer/Jockey & Prep: Walsh rising trainer; Franco seeking first Derby win. Sharp Keeneland drills. No Lasix/blinkers change. Live longshot if replicates prep; more likely to set honest pace and hang for minors.
13. Publisher (20-1)
Summary: Maiden in the Derby field, but consistent in 5 of 7 starts. Steve Asmussen trainee closing for second in Arkansas Derby. Closer likely for superfecta only if pace collapses badly; winning improbable.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~100 (Beyer ~95). Multiple graded stakes placings but no wins. Class exposure present but missing winning punch; maiden status rare for Derby winners.
Running Style & Post: Closer from post #13. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. to save ground and weave through traffic. Needs extreme pace meltdown; could finish in superfecta at big odds if others falter dramatically.
Trainer/Jockey & Equipment: Asmussen seeking Derby breakthrough. Ortiz Jr. adept at traffic navigation. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Bloodlines (American Pharoah x Proud Citizen) suggest stamina; historic upset unlikely but minor award possible in perfect setup.
14. Tiztastic (20-1)
Summary: Louisiana Derby winner for Steve Asmussen/Joel Rosario. Closer with route pedigree; last win may reflect perfect trip. Needs career-best to contend; otherwise a bottom-of-exotics player.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~99 (Beyer ~95). Louisiana Derby win workmanlike; prior stakes in the money but not winning. Bred to improve with distance.
Running Style & Post: Closer from post #14. Rosario to save ground, swing out late. Grinding finish but lacks explosive turn. Needs hot early fractions; could hit trifecta/superfecta if favorites falter.
Trainer/Jockey & Prep: Asmussen and Rosario experienced. Solid Churchill gallops. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Honest effort likely; upset unlikely but a place/show if pace sets up strongly.
15. Render Judgment (30-1)
Summary: Maiden winner with modest form, improved slightly with blinkers recently. Trainer Ken McPeek (won last year’s Derby). Deep closer; needs monumental step forward; likely a mid-pack finish.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~98 (Beyer ~90). Consistently a cut below winners; no stakes wins. Blinkers aided engagement but still below Derby quality.
Running Style & Post: Closer from post #15. Jockey Julien Leparoux to save ground, hope for pace meltdown. Could finish in top half if pace brutal, but winning extremely unlikely.
Trainer/Jockey & Other Factors: McPeek known for upsets; Leparoux experienced. Blinkers on, Lasix-free. True longshot aiming to pass tired horses; moral victory is top-half finish.
16. Coal Battle (30-1)
Summary: Cinderella story from smaller circuit. Rebel Stakes winner, third in Arkansas Derby. Versatile stalker with turn of foot and grit. Might grab late minor award if pace falls apart.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~104 (Beyer ~91). Grade 2 winner and Grade 1–placed; credentials better than many longshots. Question if another gear vs. elites.
Running Style & Post: Stalker/midpack from post #16. Jockey Juan Vargas to avoid wide trip, conserve ground, time rally. Derby distance may stretch pedigree; if in contention late, battles bravely.
Trainer/Jockey & Story: Trainer Lonnie Briley, modest connections living Derby dream. Churchill training smooth. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Honest runner; board finish possible if favorites falter.
17. Sandman (6-1)
Summary: Premier closer off Arkansas Derby win. Gray colt trained by Mark Casse, ridden by Jose Ortiz. Needs to overcome post #17 trip challenge; if clean path and pace meltdown, late kick devastating.
Speed Figures & Class: Equibase ~104 (Beyer ~99). Multiple stakes placings before breakthrough. Rich stamina pedigree but can race greenly; upside high.
Running Style & Post: Deep closer from post #17. Ortiz to navigate wide trip, angle in behind tiring horses. Needs pace meltdown and clear path by quarter pole; any check can derail. Historical post 17 no winners, but talent is top-tier.
Trainer/Jockey & Prep: Mark Casse seeking first Derby; Ortiz Jr. experienced. Solid Churchill gallops; no blinkers, Lasix-free. One of most exciting late threats; trip-luck paramount.
18. Sovereignty (5-1)
Summary: Consistent closer for Bill Mott/Godolphin. Fountain of Youth winner, Florida Derby runner-up, Street Sense Stakes winner at Churchill. Midpack closer with sustained drive and Churchill experience.
Speed Figures & Class: Equibase ~99 (Beyer ~95). Grade 2 winner, Grade 1 placed. Pedigree and form strong; may need slight figure improvement vs. top but connections point confidently to Derby.
Running Style & Post: Closer from post #18. Jockey Junior Alvarado to tuck in, save ground, time run. Needs clear path turning for home; strong sustained finish rather than flash turn-of-foot.
Trainer/Jockey & X-factors: Bill Mott seeking legit Derby win. Alvarado returning from minor injury, knows horse well. Sharp Churchill workouts; no blinkers, Lasix-free. Top candidate if trip and pace fall in his favor.
19. Chunk of Gold (30-1)
Summary: Bought for $2,500, consistent closer/stalker improving steadily. Runner-up in Risen Star and Louisiana Derby. Honest competitor with stamina pedigree; could hit board at huge price if pace collapses.
Speed Figures & Class: Equibase ~96 (Beyer ~92). Climbing numbers; graded stakes placings but no wins at that level. Reliability and stamina in pedigree are positives; raw speed below elite.
Running Style & Post: Stalker/closer from post #19. Jockey Jareth Loveberry to save ground and grind. Needs fast pace and clear path to rally; could sneak into superfecta in strong pace scenario.
Trainer/Jockey & Other Notes: Trainer Ethan West, owner Terry Stephens. True underdog story. Churchill training positive. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Superfecta bomb if many favorites falter.
20. Owen Almighty (30-1)
Summary: Speedball from Tampa Bay Derby winner, doubts about Derby distance. Trainer Brian Lynch, jockey Javier Castellano. Likely to set or press pace, ensure fast fractions, then fade late.
Speed Figures & Class: Equibase ~98 (Beyer ~93). Quality at middle distances but likely stretched beyond scope at 1¼ miles. Tampa Bay win impressive but stamina concerns.
Running Style & Post: Pacesetter/presser from post #20. Castellano to decide whether to moderate fractions or go hard; presence ensures fast early pace. Unlikely to last but influences race shape.
Trainer/Jockey & Final Prep: Lynch initially doubted Derby suitability; Castellano experienced. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Bold early show possible, but fade expected; major pace factor.
21. Baeza (12-1)
Summary: Drawn in after Rodriguez scratch. Lightly raced (4 starts) but blossomed: runner-up in Santa Anita Derby to Journalism. Trainer John Shirreffs (Giacomo upset), jockey Flavien Prat. High talent and pedigree (half-brother to Mage). Experience question in 20-horse field.
Speed Figures & Class: Top Equibase ~107 (Beyer ~101). Santa Anita Derby performance was Grade 1 quality. No stakes wins technically, but form equivalent. Pedigree and connections strong.
Running Style & Post: Stalker/mid-pack from post #21 (outside). Prat to tuck in or track pace in clear lane. Must handle large field and kickback; demeanor appears professional.
Trainer/Jockey & X-Factors: Shirreffs known for upsets; Prat experienced. Maintenance works since draw-in. No blinkers, Lasix-free. Buzz horse with a storybook profile; if handles trip, win or board finish very possible.
10-Deep Safety Net Kentucky Derby Superfecta Box
For players who want to blanket the likely outcome yet keep ticket count manageable.
Why a 10-horse box?
With 20 horses, a 4-horse superfecta box costs $24 at $1; a 10-horse box costs $504 at $1 (or $50.40 at 10¢). It halves risk vs. boxing entire field but captures >95% of realistic top-4 scenarios.
Below are 10 horses included, sorted by role and rationale. Others left out have severe distance, trip, or figure liabilities. You can also use ALL in some legs of trifecta/superfecta tickets.
Prime Keys:
- #8 Journalism (3-1) – Tactical, consistent triple-digit figs, clean center draw; most reliable top-4 finisher.
- #18 Sovereignty (5-1) – Hall of Fame trainer, Churchill win at 2, elegant late grinder; always fires.
Late Kick Threats:
- #17 Sandman (6-1) – Arkansas Derby rocket; biggest late punch.
- #9 Burnham Square (12-1) – Gelding never off board; true 10-furlong closer.
- #21 Baeza (12-1) – Lightly raced ceiling; 107 Equibase vs. Journalism; half-brother to Mage.
Versatile Stalkers:
- #7 Luxor Café (15-1) – Japan’s top hope, 4-for-4 on dirt, pressing style fits any pace.
- #10 Grande (20-1) – Pletcher/Velazquez upside; 106 fig in Wood on third career start.
Pace and Peeling Back Insurance:
- #1 Citizen Bull (20-1) – Rail speed could stick for a piece if clears or rates.
- #12 East Avenue (20-1) – Blinkers-on Blue Grass near-miss shows renewed vigor; can wire or hang for 3rd/4th.
Blue Caller Worker:
- #16 Coal Battle (30-1) – 5-for-8 winner, never quits; perfect type to grab super-4 at 30-1 when others falter.
Why Not The Others?
#2 Neoequos (30-1), #6 Admire Daytona (30-1), #20 Owen Almighty (30-1) – Need-the-lead types likely to crack under projected sub-:46 half-mile.
#5 American Promise (30-1), #14 Tiztastic (20-1) – Improving but figures ~5 pts short; wide closers who may be too late.
#3 Final Gambit (30-1), #11 Flying Mohawk (30-1) – All-weather/turf closers with zero dirt form; conversion risk too high.
#13 Publisher (20-1), #15 Render Judgment (30-1), #19 Chunk of Gold (30-1) – Maiden status or sub-100 figs; need career-best + meltdown.
2025 Kentucky Derby Summary
The 151st Kentucky Derby shapes up as a clash between the high-class stalker Journalism, the herd of powerful closers led by Sovereignty, Sandman, Burnham Square, Baeza, Tiztastic, and the speed horses trying to steal it: Citizen Bull, East Avenue, Admire Daytona, and Owen Almighty. The pace scenario favors those coming from off the pace, but anything can happen in the Kentucky Derby!
If Journalism works out a trip, he’s the horse to beat on paper, with speed, class, and poise. Keep a close eye on Sovereignty—his Churchill prowess and steady closing kick under Bill Mott’s guidance might give him the edge. For a “wow” upset, Baeza fits the storybook profile: lightly raced, tons of talent, getting good at the right time.
No matter what, this field’s depth ensures an unpredictable and exciting race. Racing luck and trip dynamics will play a huge role. A wide move, a rail split, or a steadied stride can make or break a dream in seconds.
The Kentucky Derby represents a lottery-like chance. The average superfecta payout over the past decade is around $9,000, but payouts have reached six figures. Use ALL legs in some trifecta/superfecta tickets if chasing big returns.
Get ready for a thrilling Run for the Roses, and may the best horse (you bet on) win!
