The struggling New York Yankees (42-31) look to avoid a four-game sweep as they host the Los Angeles Angels (36-37) in Thursday’s series finale at Yankee Stadium. This matchup features a pitching duel between Angels’ southpaw Tyler Anderson and Yankees’ ace Carlos Rodon. I’ve been tracking both teams closely, and the contrast couldn’t be more stark – the Angels have won three straight while the Yankees’ offense has fallen into a historic slump. Despite being significant favorites, the Yankees present serious concerns, especially with Aaron Judge in a 3-for-28 skid with 17 strikeouts. Let’s break down the matchup and find value in what could be another competitive contest.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9 Total Runs (-115) ★★★☆☆
Los Angeles Angels vs New York Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Los Angeles Angels | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +215 | -266 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-110) |
| Total | Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115) |
Opening Line: Yankees -250, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
Early money has slightly pushed this line in the Yankees’ direction, moving from -250 to -266, which reflects the market’s continued faith in them despite their recent struggles. However, I’ve noticed significant sharp action on the Angels +1.5 run line, with the juice adjusting accordingly. The total has also seen interesting movement, opening at 8.5 and climbing to 9 despite the Yankees’ offensive woes. This suggests professionals are expecting the Yankees to eventually break out of their slump, but I’m not convinced it happens today against a confident Angels squad that’s already secured the series.
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Anderson vs Carlos Rodon – Who Has the Edge?
Los Angeles Angels: Tyler Anderson (2-4, 4.44 ERA)
- Has struggled in June with a 9.00 ERA across three starts, but showed promise early in season
- Consistently works deep into games, averaging 5.2 innings per start
- Controls the running game well, limiting stolen bases
- 2.1 BB/9 ratio shows excellent command despite recent struggles
New York Yankees: Carlos Rodon (8-5, 3.01 ERA)
- Impressive 10.7 K/9 rate with 107 strikeouts in 89.2 innings
- Quality 0.99 WHIP demonstrates excellent command and dominance
- 5-1 with a 2.14 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season
- Coming off a mediocre start at Boston (5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H)
Advantage: Yankees. Rodon gives New York a significant edge in the pitching matchup, though Anderson’s veteran savvy could help him navigate a slumping Yankees lineup.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Angels’ bullpen has been surprisingly effective in this series, highlighted by closer Kenley Jansen’s 15 saves on the season. Setup man Ryan Zeferjahn (14 holds) has emerged as a reliable bridge, while Brock Burke and Hector Neris have provided solid middle relief. The Yankees’ bullpen hasn’t been the issue during their slide, with Devin Williams (9 saves) anchoring a unit that includes solid setup options in Fernando Cruz and Mark Leiter Jr. With the Yankees’ starters consistently giving length, their relief corps is reasonably well-rested. However, the Angels’ relievers have shown more clutch performance in high-leverage situations this series, which could prove decisive in another close game.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Yankees have lost six consecutive games for the first time since August 2023
- Los Angeles has already secured the series victory, winning all three previous games
- Yankees are hitting just .225 as a team over their last seven games with 60+ strikeouts
- Angels are 5-1 in their last six games as road underdogs
- Yankees have gone under the total in six of their last seven games
- Aaron Judge is 3-for-28 with 17 strikeouts during the Yankees’ losing streak
- Mike Trout is hitting .317 in 17 games since returning from the injured list
- Yankees have scored just 7 runs total in their last seven games
Mike Trout’s DH Role: How It’s Revitalized His Production
Mike Trout’s move to designated hitter since returning from injury has been a game-changer for both him and the Angels. Since May 30, Trout is hitting .317 with two home runs and nine RBIs in 17 games, demonstrating that the role change has allowed him to focus exclusively on his hitting. The shift to DH has helped Trout manage his recovery while maintaining his offensive production, creating a ripple effect throughout the Angels lineup. Against Rodon, Trout has historically performed well against high-velocity lefties, making him my top player to watch in this matchup.
Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Yankee Stadium’s reputation as a hitter’s paradise hasn’t held true during this series, with wind and cooler temperatures suppressing power. Thursday’s forecast calls for temperatures in the low 70s with light winds, creating neutral conditions. The short right-field porch (318 feet) typically benefits left-handed power hitters, but the Yankees’ lefties have been unable to capitalize during their slump. Carlos Rodon has excelled at home with a 5-1 record and 2.14 ERA at Yankee Stadium this season, showing his ability to neutralize the park’s hitter-friendly dimensions. However, the Angels have already demonstrated they can manufacture runs in this ballpark without relying on the long ball.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Angels-Yankees Showdown
Primary Play: Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-110)
I’m backing the Angels on the run line as my strongest play. The Yankees’ offensive woes have been staggering, and while Rodon gives them an edge on the mound, their lack of run production makes laying -1.5 runs extremely risky. Los Angeles has already demonstrated they can contain this Yankees lineup, and even with Anderson’s recent struggles, the Angels’ bullpen has shown it can protect leads. The Yankees have dropped six straight, with the last three losses by margins of 1, 4, and 1 runs. At -110, the Angels +1.5 offers excellent value against a team that simply cannot generate consistent offense right now.
Strong Value Play: Under 9 Total Runs (-115)
Despite the total moving up to 9, I see value on the under. The Yankees have been in an offensive black hole, scoring just seven runs in their last seven games. While they did manage to score twice yesterday, breaking their 30-inning scoreless streak, there’s little evidence suggesting a dramatic turnaround. Rodon should deliver a quality start, and Anderson has enough veteran savvy to navigate a slumping lineup. With both bullpens performing well, I expect another low-scoring affair in the 3-2 or 4-3 range.
Worth Considering: Mike Trout Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Trout has been excellent since returning from injury, hitting .317 as a DH. He’s historically performed well against power lefties like Rodon, and the Yankees’ pitcher has shown vulnerability against elite right-handed hitters. Trout only needs a double or a few singles to cash this prop, and at plus-money odds, it offers significant value. With Trout fully focused on hitting in the DH role, I expect him to build on his recent success and deliver multiple hits or an extra-base hit in Thursday’s finale.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Carlos Rodon | Over 6.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nolan Schanuel | To Record a Hit | -165 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Aaron Judge | Under 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Tyler Anderson | Over 3.5 Strikeouts | -135 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Yankees Facing Crisis Point While Angels Build Momentum
The contrast between these teams couldn’t be more stark right now. The Angels have found an identity with timely hitting, solid pitching, and excellent bullpen work, while the Yankees are enduring a historic offensive collapse. Even with Rodon on the mound, it’s difficult to trust New York laying such a heavy price. The Yankees need a statement win to avoid a sweep, but their offensive issues run deeper than just facing tough pitching. Meanwhile, the Angels are playing with house money, having already secured the series. With less pressure and growing confidence, Los Angeles is well-positioned to at least keep this game close, if not pull off another outright upset.
Score Prediction: Angels 4, Yankees 3
