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Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies Pick 9/11/18

by | Sep 11, 2018 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies 9/11/18

Time: 8:40 PM ET
Where: Coors Field, Denver, CO
Listed Pitchers: Zack Greinke (Az) vs. Antonio Senzatela (Col)
TV: FS – Arizona, SportsNet Rocky Mountain
Moneyline: D’Backs -125/Rockies +115
Over/Under: 10

With a recent push and help from elsewhere, the Rockies now lead the NL West, and they won the opener of a big series with Arizona Monday night. How are we playing Tuesday night’s contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Line

Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened Arizona at around -125 for this game, with an over/under of 10 runs. The early betting action then bumped that total to 10.5.

The Diamondbacks could also be found getting around +120 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

Colorado took the opener of this four-game series Monday night 13-2. Arizona led that game 1-0 through four innings, but the Rockies exploded for six runs in the bottom of the fifth and seven in the bottom of the seventh on their way to victory.

With Monday’s win, Colorado is 7-2 over its last nine games.

With Monday’s loss, Arizona is 0-3 over its last three games and 2-8 over its last 10.

So at 79-64 overall the Rockies now lead the NL West by a game and a half over the Dodgers and 3.5 games over the 76-68 Diamondbacks. Colorado also trails Atlanta by just a half-game in the battle for the No. 2 seed in the upcoming National League playoffs.

Arizona, meanwhile, also trails St. Louis by four games in the race for the second NL wild-card spot.

The D’Backs lead the season series with the Rockies seven games to six.

Tuesday’s Starters

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on July 22 in Phoenix, a 6-1 Diamondbacks win.

Senzatela (4-5, 4.92), by our strict standards, is 3/9 on quality starts this season, to go along with 10 appearances in relief. Last Wednesday he allowed three runs and nine hits through five innings against San Francisco, but over his previous six starts, he’s held opponents to two runs or less four times. On the season the Rockies are 4-5 with Senzatela, with unders going 7-2.

In two appearances this season against Arizona Senzatela allowed six runs and eight hits through eight innings. Colorado lost both those games.

Greinke (13-9, 3.08) is 17/29 on quality starts this year, and three for his last four. Last Thursday he gave up five runs – four earned – over 5 1/3 innings against Atlanta, but over his previous three starts he allowed six ER through 20 innings. On the season the D’Backs are 16-13 with Greinke, with unders going 17-12.

In three starts this season against the Rockies Greinke allowed five ER and 15 hits through 19 1/3 innings, with 27 strikeouts. Arizona went 2-1 in those games, with unders going 2-1.

We gotta Greinke our handicapping check-mark for this pitching match-up.

Tuesday’s Batting Splits

The D’Backs own a .232/.311/.384 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season.

Colorado owns a .248/.314/.417 split against righties this year. However, the home ballpark plays a part in those numbers, namely that slugging percentage.

Still, we’ll give the Rockies the edge with the sticks for Tuesday.

The Bullpens

The Arizona bullpen owns a 3.44 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.

The Colorado pen owns a 4.86 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. Again, though, the home ballpark probably plays a part.

Still, the Diamondbacks get the check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

Unders are 42-27 in games played at Coors Field this year, even though Rockies home games are averaging 10.4 total runs per, second-most among all ML ballparks. Naturally, Coors Field games are attracting large totals from the oddsmakers.

Overs are 5-0 in Arizona’s last five games.

Overs are 8-5 in D’Backs-Rockies games this season, 4-3 in the games played in Denver.

Free MLB Picks

Arizona gets two of our handicapping check-marks, but Colorado is the hotter team. And when one side is hot, and the other is not, that means a lot to us when betting baseball games. Plus the Rockies are getting a home-dog price. We’re going with Colorado for our free MLB pick for Tuesday and bet it at Intertops and take advanage of their top rated bonus.