Astros vs. Twins Odds & Total Pick 5/11/22

by | Last updated May 11, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros vs Minnesota Twins

Date: Wednesday, May 11th, 07:40 ET

Location: Target Field

TV: Bally Sports North

Money Line: Astros -120 / Twins +100

Total Line: 7.5

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Houston: Jose Urquidy (2-1, 4.56)
Minnesota: Chris Archer (0-0, 3.26)

Astros Projected Lineup

LF Chas McCormick
SS Jeremy Peña
1B Yuli Gurriel
RF Kyle Tucker
C Martín Maldonado
3B Alex Bregman
LF Yordan Alvarez
2B Jose Altuve
LF Michael Brantley

Twins Projected Lineup

1B Alex Kirilloff
3B Jose Miranda
3B Gio Urshela
C Gary Sánchez
C Ryan Jeffers
2B Jorge Polanco
RF Max Kepler
CF Byron Buxton
SS Carlos Correa


Houston Astros: 19-11-0 SU / OU 8-22-0 / Run Line W/L 15-15-0
Minnesota Twins: 18-12-0 SU / OU 11-17-2 / Run Line W/L 11-19-0

The Minnesota Twins host the Houston Astros on Wednesday, May 11th at Target Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Houston as the favorite (-120), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Houston Astros will look to pick up another big win, after they defeated Minnesota by a score of 5-0. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited Minnesota to 0 runs on 3 hits. The Astros benefited from an offense that generated 5 runs on 7 hits. In the matchup, Houston was favored at -142.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 23 of their games, winning at a rate of 70.0%. Together, the Astros and Minnesota stayed below the OU line set at 7.0 runs. So far, Houston has been a good candidate to fall below the betting lines, as their over-under record sits at just 8-22-0.

The Astros come into this game, having won all 5 of their recent games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of 13. Houston’s offense heads into action averaging 3.8 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 3.83. So far, Houston has won over half of their 10 series played, going 5-4-1.

Minnesota will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Astros by the score of 5-0. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 7 hits, leading to 5 runs. Offensively, they finished with 0 runs on 3 hits. Leading into Minnesota’s loss they were the underdogs, getting 132.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 20 games as the underdog. Combined, the Twins and Astros’s run total fell below the OU line of 7.0 runs. Now, Minnesota had an OU mark of 11-17-2.

In their last 5 games, the Twins have put together a record of 3-2. Minnesota has managed to play above .500 baseball, despite their last 5 scoring margin sitting at -4. Minnesota has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 2.0 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 3.90. On the season, Minnesota has won more than half of their series, going 4-3-3.

Pitching Matchup

For the Astros, Jose Urquidy gets the start. Heading into action, he has a record of 2-1. To date, Urquidy has an ERA of 4.56 while lasting an average of 5.04 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.304. In addition to a high a batting average allowed, opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Urquidy, averaging 1.43 homers per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Urquidy has a strikeout percentage of just 15.0% and a per game average of 3.2. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.4 walks per contest.

Minnesota will send Chris Archer to the mound having yet to factor into a decision. Archer comes into this game with an ERA of 3.26. So far, he is averaging 3.82 innings per outing. Opposing teams are currently batting 0.216 against the righty. Not only are opposing teams getting on base through hits at an above average rate, they are also doing damage through home runs. So far, Archer is allowing 2.36 homers per 9 innings pitched. Heading into today’s action, Chris Archer has yet to find his groove with strikeouts, averaging just 4.0 K’s per outing. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 4.19 walks per contest.

Houston vs Minnesota History

Today’s matchup between the Houston Astros and Minnesota Twins will be their 2nd meeting of the season. with Houston leading the season series, 1-0. Through 1 game, the series’ over-under record is 0-1, with the average run total sitting at 9.57 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.0 runs. Dating back to last season, Minnesota picked up 4 wins compared to 3, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Astros and Twins averaged 9.57 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.57 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 5 games
  • Minnesota is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota’s last 6 games when playing at home against Houston

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins Prediction

Even though the Twins come into this game scuffling on offense, I expect the unit to have a get-right game against Jose Urquidy, who has an expected ERA of 6.05, suggesting he has pitched even worse than an already inflated ERA. On the other side, look for Houston to add enough scoring to take this over 7.5 runs, as Chris Archer comes into the game with an FIP of 5.77. I like the over at 7.5 runs.

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