Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants Odds & Predictions

by | Sep 18, 2021 | mlb

Atlanta Braves (76-69) vs. San Francisco Giants (96-52)
When: 9:05 p.m., Saturday, September 18
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Moneyline: ATL +110/SF -120 (BetNow)
Runline: Braves +1.5/Giants -1.5
Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Charlie Morton (13-5, 3.49 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) vs. Alex Wood (10-4, 4.08 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

Holding On for Dear Life

This isn’t the situation Atlanta wanted to face at this point in the season. The Braves were hoping to be in the Giants’ position, having locked up a playoff spot and playing for seeding this late in the season, but a slow start left Atlanta scrambling and only able to take what it could get. As such, the Braves are holding only a one-game lead on the Phillies, hardly the position they want to be in given that Philadelphia has a softer schedule and they have to play the Phillies in the last week of the season.

Coming into this game as losers in four of their past five contests isn’t exactly ideal either. The Braves needed to take advantage of getting to play also-rans Washington, Miami and Colorado at home, but Atlanta slipped up against the Rockies and lost both matchups, leaving them with just a 4-4 mark in those games. With San Francisco still trying to hang on to the NL West title and the Dodgers breathing right down their necks, this is far from ideal for Atlanta.

Out of the Snake Pit

As long as the opponent isn’t Arizona (oddly enough), Alex Would has been very consistent for the Giants when he’s taken the mound. Over his past nine starts, he’s made it through the fifth inning all but once, and he’s held six of his past nine foes to three runs or less, with two of those failures coming against the Diamondbacks. In his past three appearances since last seeing Arizona, Wood has held the opposition to exactly two runs, despite just a middling strikeout total.

Against Atlanta, a typical performance might be enough. The Braves have scored five or less in each of their past five games, despite getting to face Colorado and Miami at home for four of those contests. The Braves normally have a solid offense, but they’re really not scoring right now, and a pitcher like Wood is in prime position to take advantage of it.

Can I Get Some Help?

Charlie Morton has done what he can to keep Atlanta on top in the NL East, but the Braves’ bats and bullpen really aren’t backing him up. His past three starts have all been quality starts, but the Braves have just one win in his past three starts because the bullpen hasn’t been able to keep the opposition from scoring after Morton exits.

In the Braves’ past two defeats with Morton on the mound, the bullpen gave up five runs in five innings of work, hardly a performance that inspires confidence for a team that needs to get wins. The one time that Morton has actually earned a win in his past four starts, both the bullpen and the bats came through, as Atlanta ended up scoring a 9-2 win over Colorado with no runs coming off the bullpen in the final two innings.

Betting Trends

  • The Braves are 2-6 in their past eight road games.
  • The Braves are 12-2 in their past 14 road games against a left-handed starter.
  • The Giants are 20-8 in their past 28 against the NL East.
  • The Giants are 39-16 in their past 55 games after a win.
  • The under is 9-2 in the Braves’ past 11 road games.
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the Braves’ past six games as an underdog.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Giants’ past seven games overall.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Giants’ past six against a team with a winning record.
  • The under is 5-2-1 in the teams’ past eight meetings in San Francisco.
  • The Braves are 6-2 in their past eight matchups in San Francisco.

Weather Report

San Francisco weather continues to be a bit on the chilly side, making it comfortable for baseball as long as fans have a light jacket. Wind will blow at nine miles per hour toward left-center on a cloudy day.

Dan’s pick

San Francisco keeps finding ways to get the job done, and Atlanta isn’t looking like it’s going to be strong enough to hold on against Philadelphia. With the Braves reeling, the Giants should be able to get through this one and hold serve against the Dodgers.

Give me San Francisco here.