Bet the Runline: Nats vs. Dodgers 7/25/22

by | Jul 25, 2022 | mlb

Washington Nationals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Date: Monday July 25th, 10:10 ET
Location: Dodger Stadium
TV: MASN 2
Money Line: Nationals +225 / Dodgers -280 (BetOnline)
Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Washington: Paolo Espino (0-3, 3.57)
Los Angeles: Tony Gonsolin (11-0, 2.02)

Nationals Projected Lineup

César Hernández 2B
Maikel Franco 3B
Yadiel Hernandez LF
Juan Soto RF
Keibert Ruiz C
Lane Thomas LF
Nelson Cruz CF
Luis Garcia SS
Josh Bell 1B
Paolo Espino P

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Max Muncy 3B
Cody Bellinger CF
Justin Turner 3B
Mookie Betts RF
Jake Lamb LF
Gavin Lux 2B
Will Smith C
Freddie Freeman 1B
Trea Turner SS
Tony Gonsolin P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Washington Nationals: 32-65-0 SU / OU 47-45-5 / Run Line W/L 40-57-0
Los Angeles Dodgers: 64-30-0 SU / OU 37-49-8 / Run Line W/L 57-37-0

The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Washington Nationals on Monday, July 25th at Dodger Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 10:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Los Angeles as the favorite (-280), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Washington Nationals head into today’s matchup after picking up a close win over the Diamondbacks by the score of 4-3. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Diamondbacks to 3 runs on 10 hits. The Nationals lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 9 hits, leading to 4 runs. Washington picked up the win, despite getting 105.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 9.5 runs. Washington games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 47-45-5.

Over the Nationals’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -12. During this stretch, the offense is averaging 3.4 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 3.82. Washington’s overall series record is just 7-21-2.

Los Angeles will look to keep things rolling in today’s game, as they most recently took down Giants by 3 runs 7-4. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Giants to 4 runs and 7 hits. At the plate, the Dodgers scored 7 times on 12 hits. Heading into action, Los Angeles was the favorite at -230.0. So far, the team has won 68.0% of the games in which they were favored. The Dodgers and Giants went over the run total line set at 8.0 runs. So far, Los Angeles has an over-under record of just 37-49-8.

The Dodgers come into the matchup looking to stay hot, going 5-0 over their last five contests. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +18. Compared to their season average, the Dodgers come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 6.4 runs per game. On the season, Los Angeles has won more than half of their series, going 21-8-1.

Pitching Matchup

The Washington Nationals will send Paolo Espino to the mound with an overall record of 0-3. To date, Espino has an ERA of 3.57 while lasting an average of 2.15 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.26. Home runs have been an issue for Espino, as he is allowing an average of 1.55 per 9 innings pitched. Overall, he is averaging 1.7 per game, on a K rate of 19.0%. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.86 walks per contest.

Los Angeles will roll with Tony Gonsolin (11-0) as their starter. In his previous outings, Gonsolin has lasted an average of 5.48 innings, putting together an ERA of just 2.02. Overall, opponents have a batting average of just 0.168 against the right-hander. Gonsolin is giving up home runs a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.87 per 9 innings. Overall, Tony Gonsolin has struck out 24.0% of the batters he has faced. On average, he averages 5.06 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.31 walks per outing.

Washington vs Los Angeles History

Today’s matchup between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers will be their 4th meeting of the season. Los Angeles holds the edge in the series at 2-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 2-1. The average run total in these games is 7.86 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.0 runs. Dating back to last season, the Los Angeles picked up 7 wins compared to 0, taking the season series. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 2-5, with the average run total being 7.86 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 3.29 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington’s last 12 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games
  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Heading into Monday’s National League matchup between Washington and Los Angeles, the Dodgers are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Even though Tony Gonsolin got beat up in his last outing vs St. Louis, I expect him to get back on track vs Washington. I recommend taking the Dodgers on the runline.

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