Tampa Bay Rays at Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, October 23, 2026
8:00 PM ET, American Family Field
The Brewers are -198 favorites on the moneyline (Rays +162), -1.5 on the run line at +122, with the total sitting at 6.5. My play is Under 6.5 (-108).
Somebody is winning a first-ever World Series, and Game 1 opens with maybe the hardest thrower on the planet on one mound and a 36-year-old first-time All-Star on the other. That sounds like a mismatch, and the moneyline prices it like one. The total is where I want to be, because both of these clubs got here by strangling games, not slugging their way through them.
The Miz has had 11 days to sharpen the knife
Jacob Misiorowski didn’t just lead the majors in ERA this season. He made hitters look silly, posting a 1.80 ERA and holding opponents to a .157 average. His expected ERA, which grades the quality of contact he allowed instead of the luck, was 2.13. The guy isn’t a mirage.
October has been a grind for him. San Diego and Los Angeles both fouled off pitch after pitch to run up his count, and he hasn’t gotten out of the fifth in either start. Even so, he’s allowed three runs in 8 1/3 innings with 11 strikeouts, and Milwaukee won both games. Now he walks in on 11 full days without facing another team after the Brewers swept the Dodgers. Fresh arm, home crowd, and a fastball that hit 104.8 mph on the first pitch he threw in the NLDS opener. The Rays saw him back on April 1 and managed two runs in six innings with seven strikeouts.
Milwaukee’s bullpen is the real wall
Here’s why the pitch-count plan doesn’t scare me. Every inning Tampa Bay steals from Misiorowski goes to a relief corps that has been ridiculous this October: a 1.33 postseason ERA. Trevor Megill, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall have combined for 23 1/3 scoreless innings, and hitters are barely making contact against them. After a week off, Pat Murphy can lean on all of them without blinking.
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Why the Martinez swap moved this total the wrong way
This number opened at 6 with Drew Rasmussen expected to start. Then Kevin Cash gave his ace an extra day and handed Game 1 to Nick Martinez, and the total ticked up to 6.5 while Milwaukee climbed from around -160 to -198. I get the reaction. I just think the market is underrating Martinez in this exact spot.
He’s a contact manager, not a strikeout guy, and he’s been far better away from Tropicana Field this year: a 2.38 road ERA versus 3.90 at home. Both of his playoff starts came on the road, and he’s allowed three runs in nine innings. He also handled this Brewers lineup back on March 30.
“When Nick pitches, we win,” Cash said, and the Rays are 24-9 in his starts. Behind him, closer Bryan Baker has thrown seven scoreless innings this postseason and finished all seven Tampa Bay wins.
The bats aren’t exactly scorching, either. The Rays are hitting .232 in the playoffs. Milwaukee is better at .250, but its eight postseason games have averaged just over four runs a night for the Brewers.
The case against me
Martinez’s expected ERA was 3.98, nearly a run higher than his actual mark, and he struck out only 109 hitters in 180 innings. When balls go in play, some find grass. VSiN points out he got hit hard the third time through the order, so if Cash leaves him in a beat too long, Milwaukee’s .259 team average (best in the NL) could turn a 3-1 game into 6-1 in a hurry. The other worry is Misiorowski’s pitch count. If the Rays foul him out by the fourth, this game spends a lot of innings in the middle of both bullpens, not with the closers.
Projected score
Misiorowski misses bats for five innings, Martinez keeps it close through the fifth, and two elite bullpens play keep-away from there. Brewers 4, Rays 2. I’d play this at 6.5 at anything up to -120, and I’d pass if it slides back to 6.
The Pick: Under 6.5 (-108)
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