Bet the Total: Braves vs. Mets 8/7/22 Pick

by | Last updated Aug 26, 2022 | mlb

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets

Date: Sunday August 7th, 04:10 ET

Location: Citi Field

TV: Bally Sports Southeast

Money Line: Braves +130 / Mets -140 (Everygame – Deposit $25 and get an extra $50 FREE when you sign up through our link and use bonus code ROOKIE200 on their special promotions page after you’ve made your deposit! It’s the best small sportsbook bonus on the web!)

Total Line: 7un -115


Atlanta: Spencer Strider (6-3, 3.0)
New York: Jacob deGrom (0-0, 1.8)

Braves Projected Lineup

William Contreras C
Orlando Arcia 2B
Eddie Rosario LF
Ronald Acuña Jr. RF
Marcell Ozuna LF
Austin Riley 3B
Michael Harris II CF
Matt Olson 1B
Dansby Swanson SS
Spencer Strider P

Mets Projected Lineup

Mark Canha LF
Luis Guillorme 3B
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Starling Marte RF
Jeff McNeil 2B
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Jacob deGrom P


Atlanta Braves: 64-45-0 SU / OU 56-49-4 / Run Line W/L 55-54-0
New York Mets: 69-39-0 SU / OU 56-44-8 / Run Line W/L 59-49-0

The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves on Sunday August 7th at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-140), with an OU line set at 7.

Recent Form

The Braves come into this matchup having suffered a 4 run loss to the Mets (6-2). In the loss, Atlanta’s pitchers gave up 6 runs on 8 hits. On offense, the Braves finished with 2 runs on 7 hits. Atlanta’s loss came as the underdog, getting 117.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Braves and Mets combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.0 runs. So far, Atlanta has an above .500 over-under record of 56-49-4.

In their last 5 games, the Braves are below .500, at 1-4. In this rough stretch of games, the team’s run differential comes in at -8. A key reason for Atlanta’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 4.2 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 4.77. So far, Atlanta has won over half of their 34 series played, going 16-12-6.

The New York Mets will be looking to pick up another win, as they most recently defeated the Braves by 4 runs (6-2). In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 2 runs on 7 hits. In the victory, the Mets came up with 8 hits and 6 runs. Heading into action, New York was the favorite at -127.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 84 games, winning at a rate of 69.0%. The Mets and Braves went over the run total line set at 7.0 runs. For the season, the team’s over-under record is 56-44-8.

Across their last 5 contests, the Mets are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +10. Compared to their season average, the Mets come into this game swinging the bats well, averaging 7.0 runs per game. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 25-6-3.


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Pitching Matchup

The Atlanta Braves will send Spencer Strider to the mound with an overall record of 6-3. Currently, Strider has an ERA of just 3.0 while pitching an average of 3.78 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.174 against him. Home runs have not been an issue for Strider, as he is giving up just 0.52 HR/9. In terms of strikeouts, Spencer Strider has a strong strikeout percentage of 38.0%, including a per game average of 5.78. Command has been a problem for Strider, as he is giving up 3.31 walks per outing.

For the Mets, starting pitcher Jacob deGrom has yet to factor into a decision. Currently, deGrom has an ERA of 1.8 while pitching 5 innings vs Washington. So far, batters are hitting just 0.176 against him and has yet to give up a home run. Up to this point, deGrom has a strikeout percentage of 35.0% and a per game average of 6.0.

Atlanta vs New York History

For the season, the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets will be playing their 12th game of the season. Currently, New York is winning the season series 7-4. Through 11 games, the series over-under record is 8-3, with the average run total sitting at 7.68 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.27 runs. Last season, Atlanta picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-11. Last year, the Braves and Mets averaged 7.68 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.47 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing NY Mets
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets’s last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets’s last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Prediction

Heading into Sunday’s National League East showdown between Atlanta and New York, runs should be hard to come by with Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom on the mound. Even though deGrom is making just his 2nd appearance, he came out of the gates throwing the ball well. Look for this to be a low-scoring game, finishing below the O/U total of 7 runs.

Free MLB Pick: Under 7 Runs.

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