Bet the Total: Phillies vs Mets 8/13/22

by | Last updated Aug 13, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets
Date: Saturday August 13th, 07:10 ET
Location: Citi Field
Money Line: Phillies 153 / Mets -185
Total Line: 6.5


Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (8-8, 3.17)
New York: Jacob deGrom (1-0, 2.53)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Jean Segura 2B
Bryson Stott SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Darick Hall 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Brandon Marsh CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Aaron Nola P

Mets Projected Lineup

Tyler Naquin RF
Luis Guillorme SS
Daniel Vogelbach 1B
Starling Marte RF
Jeff McNeil 2B
James McCann C
Francisco Lindor SS
Pete Alonso 1B
Brandon Nimmo CF
Jacob deGrom P


Philadelphia Phillies: 63-49-0 SU / OU 56-51-5 / Run Line W/L 59-53-0
New York Mets: 73-40-0 SU / OU 57-47-9 / Run Line W/L 63-50-0

The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, August 13th at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-185), with an OU line set at 6.5.

Recent Form

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to add another win to their resume after pulling out a slim 2-1 win over the Mets. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 1 run on 5 hits. On offense, Philadelphia’s lineup put together a total of 10 hits, leading to 2 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 200.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Phillies and Mets stayed below the over-under line set at 7.0 runs. Philadelphia games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 56-51-5.

The Phillies are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +14. Overall, Philadelphia is averaging 4.70 runs per game. Over their last 5 contests, they have been producing at a similar rate, at 4.70. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 36 series played, going 18-15-3.

The Mets are coming off a tight loss to the Phillies, dropping the game 2-1. For the game, the pitching staff held the Phillies to 2 runs on 10 hits. The Mets offense ended the game with just 1 run on 5 hits. New York came away with a loss, despite being favored on the moneyline (-250.0). So far, the team has won 70.0% of the games in which they were favored. With this result, the Mets and Phillies combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.0 runs. Even still, New York games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 57-47-9.

In their last 5 games, the Mets have put together a record of 4-1. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +18 (last 5). New York has benefited from strong pitching, as their offense has slipped in their last 5 games, averaging just 5.4 runs per game. Their overall average sits at 4.82. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 26-7-3.

Pitching Matchup

Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 8-8. Through 22 appearances, Nola has an ERA of just 3.17 while averaging 6.55 innings per appearance. Hits have been hard to come by against the right-hander, as his batting average allowed is just 0.217. Nola is giving up home runs at a rate similar to the league average, allowing 0.94 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Aaron Nola has a strong strikeout percentage of 28.0%, including a per game average of 7.14. Command has been a problem for Nola, as he is giving up 1.24 walks per outing.

The New York Mets will send Jacob deGrom to the mound with an overall record of 1-0. Heading into the game, deGrom has appeared in 2 contests, posting an ERA of just 2.53. On average, he pitches 5.1 innings per appearance. So far, batters are hitting just 0.114 against him. deGrom, is allowing home runs at a rate of 0.88 per 9 innings. Up to this point, deGrom has a strikeout percentage of just 50.0% and a per game average of 9.0. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 0.84 walks per contest.

Philadelphia vs New York History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets will be playing their 14th game of the season. Currently, New York is winning the season series 9-4. Through 13 games, the series over-under record is 6-6, with the average run total sitting at 6.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.54 runs. Last season, Philadelphia picked up the series win, 10 games to 9. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 8-11, with the average run total being 6.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.11 runs per contest.

Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games on the road
  • Philadelphia is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
  • NY Mets is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • NY Mets is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s National East matchup between Philadelphia and New York, the over-under betting line is set at 6.5 runs. Even though both Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola have been dominate of late, I expect the Mets to be careful in overworking deGrom. Even if this is a low-scoring game early, each team’s offense could pick up some late runs vs the bullpen. I recommend taking the over at 6.5 runs.

Free MLB Pick: Over 6.5 Runs. NCAA football season is here! Check out Dan’s Week 0 college football predictions!

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