Bet the Total: Pirates vs. Phillies 8/28/22

by | Last updated Aug 28, 2022 | mlb

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Sunday August 28th, 01:35 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
Money Line: Pirates +230 / Phillies -290
Total Line: 9.0


Pittsburgh: Roansy Contreras (3-4, 3.86)
Philadelphia: Noah Syndergaard (5-8, 3.82)

Pirates Projected Lineup

Greg Allen LF
Bligh Madris RF
Ben Gamel RF
Oneil Cruz SS
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Tyler Heineman C
Bryan Reynolds CF
Tucupita Marcano 2B
Kevin Newman SS
Roansy Contreras P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Bryson Stott SS
Jean Segura 2B
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Bradley Zimmer CF
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Noah Syndergaard P


Pittsburgh Pirates: 47-79-0 SU / OU 57-60-9 / Run Line W/L 62-64-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 72-55-0 SU / OU 63-59-5 / Run Line W/L 67-60-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday August 28th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 01:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-290), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The Pirates come into this matchup having suffered a 6 run loss to Philadelphia (6-0). On their way to giving up 6 runs, the Pirates staff allowed 7 hits. The Pirates ended the game with just 0 runs on 6 hits. The loss came as Pittsburgh was the betting underdog, getting 250.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 9.0 runs. With this result, Pittsburgh’s over-under record dropped even further, moving to just 57-60-9.

In their last 5 games, the Pirates are below .500, at 0-5. This mark has come on an average run margin of just -27. A key reason for Pittsburgh’s recent struggles is an offense averaging just 1.6 runs per game over their last 5 contests, compared to a season average of 3.56. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is just 9-25-7.

In their last game, the Philadelphia Phillies picked up a 6 run win over the Pirates by a score of 6-0. In the winning effort, the team’s pitchers held the Pirates to 0 runs and 6 hits. In the victory, the Phillies came up with 7 hits and 6 runs. Philadelphia picked up the win while being favored at -310.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 86 games, winning at a rate of 60.0%. Combined, the Phillies and Pirates run total fell below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. Even still, Philadelphia games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at 63-59-5.

Over their last 5 games, the Phillies have not lost a game, going 5-0. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at +16. Overall, the Phillies are averaging 4.67 runs per contest. But, over their last 5 outings, they have been scoring at a clip of 6.2 runs per contest. On the season, Philadelphia has won more than half of their series, going 20-17-3.

Pitching Matchup

Roansy Contreras gets the start for the Pirates, with an overall record of 3-4. So far, Contreras has put together an ERA of 3.86. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.5 innings. So far, Contreras has a batting average allowed of 0.238. Opponents are hitting for power against Contreras, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.43. On the season, Roansy Contreras has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 21.0%. This includes a per-game average of 4.14 K’s per game. Command has been a problem for Contreras, as he is giving up 4.14 walks per outing.

Philadelphia will roll with Noah Syndergaard (5-8) as their starter. Syndergaard gets the start with an ERA of 3.82. On average, he has lasted 5.33 innings per appearance. So far, Syndergaard has a batting average allowed of 0.244. Throughout the season, Syndergaard has done a good job at limiting home runs, allowing 1.01 per 9 innings. Per game, Noah Syndergaard is averaging 4.27, on a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 2.48 walks per outing.

Pittsburgh vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 7th meeting of the season. Currently, Philadelphia is winning the season series 6-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 3-3. The average run total in these games is 10.29 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.17 runs. Philadelphia won last year’s head-to-head series, grabbing 4 wins to 3. The over-under record in last year’s matchups was 3-4, with the average run total being 10.29 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 5.14 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 8 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Pittsburgh’s last 17 games
  • Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh Pirates at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Leading into Sunday’s National League matchup between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. However, I see the best bet for this game being the under at 9 runs. Look for the Pirates to once again struggle at the plate against Noah Syndergaard. In addition, Roansy Contreras is coming off an outstanding start vs a tough Braves lineup.

Free MLB Pick: Under 9 Runs