Bet the Total: Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction

by | Last updated Aug 4, 2022 | mlb

Boston Red Sox vs Kansas City Royals
Date: Thursday August 4th, 08:10 ET
Location: Kauffman Stadium
TV: Bally Sports Kansas City
Money Line: Red Sox -130 / Royals +108
Total Line: 8.5


Boston: Nick Pivetta (8-8, 4.47) Kansas City: Kris Bubic (2-6, 5.57)

Red Sox Projected Lineup

Kevin Plawecki C Christian Arroyo SS Bobby Dalbec 1B Alex Verdugo LF Rafael Devers 3B Jarren Duran CF Xander Bogaerts SS J.D. Martinez LF Tommy Pham LF Nick Pivetta P

Royals Projected Lineup

Michael A. Taylor CF Nick Pratto 1B Hunter Dozier 3B MJ Melendez RF Kyle Isbel LF Nicky Lopez 2B Salvador Perez C Vinnie Pasquantino 1B Bobby Witt Jr. SS Kris Bubic P


Boston Red Sox: 53-53-0 SU / OU 47-52-7 / Run Line W/L 55-51-0 Kansas City Royals: 41-64-0 SU / OU 50-51-4 / Run Line W/L 47-58-0

The Kansas City Royals host the Boston Red Sox on Thursday August 4th at Kauffman Stadium. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 08:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Boston as the favorite (-130), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The Red Sox will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the Astros by the score of 6-1. Boston’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 12 hits, leading to 6 runs. On offense, the Red Sox finished with 1 run on 4 hits. Boston’s loss came as the underdog, getting 165.0 on the moneyline. Together, the Red Sox and Astros stayed below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. So far, Boston has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 47-52-7.

The Red Sox come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Despite their recent success, their last 5 run margin comes in at -3. Boston comes into the game struggling on offense, averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last 5. This figure is down from their season average of 4.47. Boston’s overall series record is just 13-15-5.

Kansas City will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the White Sox by the score of 4-1. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 4 runs on 12 hits. With their 4 hits, the Royals could only plate 1 runner. Leading into Kansas City’s loss, they were the underdogs, getting 117.0 on the moneyline. In their 75 games as the underdog, their straight-up win percentage sits at 33.0%. Combined, the Royals and White Sox run total fell below the over-under line of 8.5 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 50-51-4.

In their last 5 contests, the Royals have just 2 wins, going 2-3. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -13 over their last 5 games. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.0 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 3.80. Kansas City has a below .500 series record of just 9-21-3.

Pitching Matchup

Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox, with an overall record of 8-8. To date, Pivetta has an ERA of 4.47 while lasting an average of 5.63 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.249. Opponents are hitting for power against Pivetta, as his HR/9 figure sits at 1.22. In terms of strikeouts, Nick Pivetta has a strong strikeout percentage of 23.0%, including a per-game average of 5.43. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.34 walks per outing.

The Kansas City Royals will send Kris Bubic to the mound with an overall record of 2-6. So far, Bubic has put together an ERA of 5.57. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.36 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.276. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Bubic, averaging 1.46 homers per 9 innings pitched. Per game, Kris Bubic is averaging 3.59, on a strikeout percentage of 18.0%. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 4.72 walks per outing.

Boston vs Kansas City History

Today’s game between the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals is their first matchup of the year. Last season, Boston won 5 games compared to 2 for Kansas City. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-3, with the average scoring differential sitting at 4.57 runs. Last year, the two teams combined to average 10.57 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Boston’s last 7 games
  • Boston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City’s last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City’s last 11 games when playing at home against Boston

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals Prediction

Heading into Thursday’s American League matchup between Boston and Kansas City, the over-under betting line is set at 8.5 runs. With Nick Pivetta and Kris Bubic on the mound, I recommend taking the over, as both starting pitchers are prone to getting roughed up. Look for this to be a higher-scoring game than expected, surpassing 8.5 runs.

Free MLB Pick: Over 8.5 Runs


Will Rodgers Sports HandicapperI won my last two MLB playoff picks and am going for three straight on Friday in Game 1 of the World Series! I had a sparkling run down the stretch (in the regular season), and look to finish in the same fashion in the postseason. Hop on board now!

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