Game 4 of the 2025 World Series brings us one of the most intriguing pitching matchups of the postseason as the Toronto Blue Jays send Shane Bieber to the hill against two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Coming off an epic 18-inning marathon in Game 3 that saw Freddie Freeman deliver a walk-off homer to give the Dodgers a 2-1 series lead, both teams now face exhausted bullpens and quick turnarounds. With Ohtani coming off one of the most remarkable offensive performances in World Series history (reaching base a record nine times in Game 3), the question becomes whether he can maintain that dominance on the mound as the Dodgers look to take a commanding 3-1 lead.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Dodgers ML (-200) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Game Total Under 8.0 (-110) ★★★☆☆
Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Toronto Blue Jays | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +165 | -200 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-125) | -1.5 (+105) |
| Total | Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -190, Total 7.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The overnight line movement has been telling in this matchup. After opening at Dodgers -190, we’ve seen a slight push toward Los Angeles, moving to -200 despite the hefty price. This indicates professional money isn’t scared off by laying the big number with Ohtani on the mound. More interestingly, the total has ticked up from 7.5 to 8, which seems counterintuitive given we have two quality starters and heavily taxed bullpens after the 18-inning marathon. The sharp money appears to be factoring in fatigue for both pitching staffs, particularly the Blue Jays, who had to use virtually everyone available in their bullpen during Game 3.
Pitching Matchup: Shane Bieber vs Shohei Ohtani – Who Has the Edge?
Toronto Blue Jays: Shane Bieber (1-0, 4.38 ERA)
- Bieber has been inconsistent this postseason, posting a 4.38 ERA over 12.1 innings
- Strong strikeout numbers with 15 Ks against just 3 walks
- Concerning 1.54 WHIP indicates he’s allowing too many baserunners
- Has averaged just over 4 innings per playoff start, putting pressure on a depleted bullpen
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (2-0, 2.25 ERA)
- Dominant postseason on the mound with a 2.25 ERA across 12 innings
- Elite strikeout rate with 19 Ks in those 12 innings (14.3 K/9)
- Exceptional 0.75 WHIP shows how few baserunners he’s allowing
- Coming off historic Game 3 offensive performance (9 times on base, 2 HRs)
- Questions about physical recovery after extensive base running in 18-inning marathon
Advantage: Significant edge to Los Angeles. Ohtani has been dominant on the mound this postseason, while Bieber’s elevated WHIP suggests vulnerability. The one concern for Ohtani is potential fatigue after his marathon offensive night, but his legendary conditioning should mitigate this factor.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both bullpens are in serious trouble after the 18-inning epic in Game 3. Toronto’s situation is particularly dire, with closer Jeff Hoffman throwing 33 pitches over two innings and Eric Lauer being stretched for 68 pitches over 4⅔ innings. Five other Blue Jays relievers threw between 19-29 pitches each. On the Dodgers side, they used 10 different pitchers in Game 3, including Clayton Kershaw in relief. Will Klein emerged as an unexpected hero with four scoreless extra innings. Neither manager will have many fresh options, but the Dodgers have the advantage of potentially getting more innings from their starter. If Ohtani can deliver 6+ quality innings, it would be a massive advantage given the state of both bullpens. With Bieber averaging just over 4 innings per playoff start, Toronto’s exhausted relief corps will likely be tested again.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Teams winning Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in the World Series have gone on to win the championship 70 of 101 times (69.3%)
- The Dodgers are 8-2 in Ohtani’s last 10 starts when he’s also in the batting lineup
- Toronto set a World Series record with 67 at-bats in Game 3, yet stranded a Series-record 19 runners
- The Blue Jays are dealing with a significant injury concern as George Springer left Game 3 with right side discomfort
- Dodgers are 5-1 this postseason in games following an extra-inning victory
- Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 games when listed as underdogs of +150 or greater
- Ohtani is the first player in MLB history with three multi-homer games in a single postseason
Ohtani’s Historic Double Duty: Can He Dominate on the Mound After Offensive Explosion?
All eyes will be on Shohei Ohtani as he attempts something unprecedented in World Series history – dominating on the mound less than 24 hours after one of the greatest offensive performances ever seen in October. In Game 3, Ohtani reached base a record nine times (five hits including two homers, four intentional walks), becoming the first player to be intentionally walked four times in a postseason game. Now he’ll take the mound as a pitcher with a chance to put the Dodgers up 3-1 in the series.
The physical toll from Game 3 cannot be underestimated – Ohtani was on base nine times in a game that lasted nearly seven hours. While reports indicate he received IV fluids after the game, the question remains whether his typically pinpoint command will be affected. In similar situations during the regular season, Ohtani showed remarkable resilience, posting a 1.95 ERA in starts following games where he had 3+ hits as a batter.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium continues to be one of baseball’s most pitcher-friendly venues, with a runs factor of 0.940 (21st in MLB) in 2025. However, it does favor home run hitters with a HR factor of 1.122 (8th in MLB). This combination creates an interesting dynamic for today’s game. The suppressed run-scoring environment should benefit both starting pitchers, especially with both teams potentially dealing with fatigue after the 18-inning marathon. However, the park’s tendency to allow home runs means that one mistake could prove costly in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. The expected cool evening conditions in Los Angeles should further favor pitchers, with temperatures in the low 60s and minimal wind. Given Ohtani’s dominance and Bieber’s tendency to give up hard contact, the Dodgers’ power hitters should have the advantage in these conditions.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Blue Jays-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Dodgers ML (-200)
The price is steep, but the value is still there with Ohtani on the mound. The Dodgers have every advantage in this matchup – superior starting pitcher, home-field advantage, momentum from the dramatic Game 3 win, and a 2-1 series lead. While there’s legitimate concern about Ohtani’s recovery after his marathon Game 3 performance, his conditioning is legendary, and even a slightly diminished Ohtani is still better than most pitchers at their best. The Blue Jays’ bullpen is completely taxed after the 18-inning affair, and Bieber hasn’t been going deep into games this postseason. I expect Ohtani to deliver at least 6 quality innings, putting tremendous pressure on a Blue Jays lineup that just set a World Series record for stranded baserunners (19) in Game 3.
Strong Value Play: Under 8 Runs (-110)
Despite the total moving up from 7.5 to 8, I see value on the under here. Yes, both bullpens are exhausted, but that’s precisely why I expect both managers to ride their starters longer than usual – particularly Dave Roberts with Ohtani. Dodger Stadium plays as a pitcher’s park for overall run scoring, and night games in October typically favor pitchers even more. The Blue Jays showed alarming inefficiency with runners on base in Game 3, and now they’ll face an elite starter in Ohtani who allows very few baserunners (0.75 WHIP this postseason). Bieber has been vulnerable but still maintains a strong strikeout rate that can help him escape jams.
Worth Considering: Shohei Ohtani Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-120)
After watching the Blue Jays hitters throughout the postseason, I’m convinced Ohtani can rack up strikeouts against this lineup. Toronto struck out 14 times in Game 3 over 18 innings, and now they’re facing fatigue after the marathon contest. Ohtani has recorded 19 strikeouts in his 12 postseason innings (14.3 K/9), and the Blue Jays have been particularly vulnerable to high-velocity pitchers with strong breaking balls – exactly Ohtani’s profile. Even if he’s not at 100% after his Game 3 heroics, his stuff is electric enough to miss bats consistently.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 7.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Freddie Freeman | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Bo Bichette | Over 0.5 Total Bases | -220 | ★★★★☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | To Record a Win | +130 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Ohtani’s Dual Dominance Could Become World Series Legend
We’re witnessing something unprecedented in baseball history. After reaching base a record nine times in Game 3, Ohtani now takes the mound with a chance to put the Dodgers one win away from a championship. The physical demands are enormous, but if there’s one athlete built for this moment, it’s Ohtani. The Blue Jays face an uphill battle with a depleted bullpen and potentially without George Springer, who underwent an MRI after leaving Game 3. While they’ll fight to even the series, the combination of Ohtani’s pitching dominance, Dodger Stadium’s pitcher-friendly confines, and the momentum from their dramatic Game 3 win gives Los Angeles a substantial advantage.
Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Blue Jays 2
