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Betting Prediction: Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros Game 3

by | Oct 16, 2018 | mlb

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros 10/16/18

Time: 5:05 PM ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Listed Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (Bos) vs. Dallas Keuchel (Hous)
TV: TBS
Moneyline: Red Sox +120/Astros -130 (Best Odds)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Astros got the split they needed through the first two games of this ALCS in Boston, and now take over home-field advantage with the next three games in H-Town, beginning with Game 3 Tuesday night. How are we playing this crucial contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Playoffs Betting Line

The Game 3 MLB betting odds opened Houston at around -135, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

The Astros could also be found getting upwards of +160 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Game 3 Set-Up

Houston won Game 1 of this ALCS Saturday night 7-2, but Boston grabbed Game 2 Sunday 7-5. The Sox led early Sunday 2-0, fell down 4-2, then scored three runs in the bottom of the third and added single runs in the seventh and eighth, then held on from there.

The Astros won Game 1 as a +115 underdog on the MLB betting odds, and Boston won Game 2 as a +120 dog.

Even with Sunday’s loss, Houston is 12-3 over its last 15 games.

The Astros took the regular-season series from the Red Sox four games to three.

Game 3 Starting Arms

Lefty Keuchel (12-11, 3.74), by our strict standards, is 18/35 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last four. Last Monday, in that ALDS against Cleveland he allowed two runs and four hits through five innings of a game Houston eventually won 11-3. But over his last four starts, he’s allowed 11 runs and 22 hits through 18 innings.

On the season the Astros are 20-15 with Keuchel, and 3-0 over his last three outings, despite the recent mediocrity.

In one start this season against Boston Keuchel gave up five runs and nine hits through six innings of a 6-5 Houston loss five weeks ago.

Eovaldi (6-7, 3.81) is 9/22 on quality starts this year, and two for his last four. Last Monday in that ALDS against the Yankees Eovaldi allowed just one run and five hits through seven innings of a 16-1 Boston victory. And over his last four appearances, he’s allowed only two ER and 12 hits through 20 innings, with 24 strikeouts against two walks.

On the season Boston is 6-6 with Eovaldi.

In one start this season against Houston, back in June when he was still with Tampa Bay, Eovaldi gave up four runs and seven hits, including four solo homers, through six innings of a 5-1 Rays loss.

Eovaldi has been the better pitcher as of late, but both these guys had rough outings this year against Tuesday’s opponents. For handicapping purposes, we’re calling this pitching match-up a push.

Game 3 Batting Splits

The Red Sox posted a .250/.325/.402 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against left-handed pitching this season.

The Astros posted a .246/.323/.410 split against right-handed pitching this year.

We’re calling the splits with the sticks a push for Game 3.

The Bullpens

The Boston pen put up a 3.72 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP during the regular season. This unit has also allowed 12 ER and 17 hits through 26 1/3 innings in these playoffs.

The Houston bullpen put up a 3.03 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP this season, both of which led the Majors. This unit has also allowed just two ER and eight hits through 14 2/3 innings of work in these playoffs.

We’re giving the Astros the check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 43-38 in games played at Minute Maid Park this year, which are averaging 8.1 total runs per.
  • Overs are 8-2 in Sox-Astros games this season.

Free MLB Picks

We’re giving Houston about three-quarters of a star on our main handicapping factors, so we don’t think the line on this game is too far off. However, we do see value taking an underdog that won 108 games this season. And the underdog won the first two games of this series. We’re betting Boston plus the money and using our digital wallet to bet at sportsbook that accepts BitCoin.