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Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Game 4 Prediction

by | Oct 27, 2018 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (Drew Pomeranz)(L) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Rich Hill) (L) Game 4 Prediction
UPDATE: Pitching change to Rodriguez. We still like the Dodgers!
When: Saturday, October 27th, 8:05 PM EST
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA

Current Series Price: LAD +210/Bos -250
Game 4 Betting Odds: Bos +155/LAD -165
Run Line: Bos +1.5 -150/LA -1.5 -+130
Over/Under: 8.5

If you didn’t stay up for last night’s game, I’ll give you a brief summary here as you missed a doozy! I don’t usually recap games in a new game article, but in this case, it all plays into the storyline, so I will. Walker Buehler pitched really well, and Rick Porcello and the Pen did as well. Buehler went 7 strong, allowing only 2 hits while fanning 7. Porcello only went 4.2, allowing just 1 earned run on 3 hits. The game was tied going into the 9th inning. The Dodgers lone run came on a blast to right field by Joc Pederson (off Porcello), and the Red Sox run came in the form of a Jackie Bradley Jr. (Off Jansen) no-doubter to the right. The Dodgers provided their fans with some excitement in the bottom of the ninth as Cody Bellinger got on with a single, but left early on an attempted steal and was picked off. Grandal walked, and then Taylor walked, leaving Dodger fans to wonder what could have been if Bellinger hadn’t gotten cut down. Dozier pinch hit for Jansen, then Boston countered by bringing in Craig Kimbrel, who got Dozier to foul out to the catcher.

The game then went to extra innings where Boston put two on in the 10th and pinch runner tried to call from third on a medium fly ball to CF. Center fielder Bellinger came up firing and nailed Kinsler at home (on the fly). It was a heck of a throw.

The next scoring happened by Boston in the top of the 13th where Nunez tapped one in the infield and confusion at first caused an overthrow which allowed Holt to score from second base. After a couple of outs, Sandy Leon lined a hard hit ball over first for a double. With first base open, Mookie Betts was given an intentional pass. Bogaerts then came up with the bases loaded and 2 outs to face Dodgers reliever Floro. Bogaerts tapped one an inch in front of the plate where the catcher picked it up and tagged him to end the inning.

The Dodgers then came up in the bottom of the 13th to face Eovaldi. Muncy led off with a walk. Machado came up next and flew out to right field for the first out. Bellinger came up next fouled out to third base. Muncy intelligently tagged up and took second on the play. Yasiel Puig came up and hit one up the middle in which Kinsler was able to glove it, but stumbled and made a horrible throw about 10 feet up the line from first. The ball gets by first baseman Vazquez and Muncy scores to tie the game. Barnes then came up and popped out to right. Unbelievably, World Series Game 3 moved on to the 14th inning where no runs were scored by either team.

The 15th started off with the Dodgers bringing in Kenta Maeda who gave up a single to Eduardo Nunez. Next, Maeda walked Jackie Bradley Jr. Maeda didn’t look sharp at all, and everyone was wondering why the lefty Urias wasn’t being used. Christian Vazquez then laid down a nice bunt where Maeda whirled and fired a seed to third to force Nunez for the first out. Sandy Leon came up for his second at-bat of the game and fanned. With runners on 1st and 2nd and 2 outs, Mookie Betts (0-5, walk) came up and struck out.

The game eventually ended in the bottom of the 18th when Max Muncy went yard to left-center field. The ending was fitting, as it was justice for Muncy, who hit a tape measure shot just foul earlier in extra innings. The game ends at 7 hours and 20 minutes, a World Series record.

The Red Sox spent quite a few arms in this game. This will play into Saturday’s action as they’ll be starting Pomeranz, who hasn’t pitched since September 30th. Even more intriguing, the lefty hasn’t thrown as many as 4 innings since August 31st. One would think the Sox will need to dip into the pen early in this one, which would be advantage Dodgers.

However, the biggest point of emphasis for us is what happened last night. A World Series game went 18 innings. The Sox are on the road. The Sox lost a very emotional game. These guys are ballplayers and more resilient than the guy most normal human beings, but the emotional tax of losing in extra innings, in a world series game is MASSIVE. I’ve been lucky enough to tap the brain of a local buddy of mine who played for the St. Louis Cardinals World Series teams in the 80’s and one of the tidbits of info that he’s given me has been golden. He says that when a road team loses in extra innings, they almost always come out flat the next day. I’ve bet on this trend quite a bit over the years and have made a bundle of cash in doing so. I’m predicating my whole play on this variable tonight. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Red Sox come out and put up two runs or less tonight. It wouldn’t surprise me if they got shutout!

Drew Pomeranz vs. Rich Hill

Pomeranz was unimpressive this season. The tall lefty was 2-6, had a 6.08 ERA, huge 1.77 WHIP and opponents hit .297 against him. He gave up 12 bombs in only 74 innings, which is almost twice the average rate a pitcher should allow. He also showed control issues with 44 bases on balls. One would think that unfamiliarity would be a good thing vs. NL teams that haven’t faced him this season, but he got beat up by all of them he faced. He appears to not pitch well under the spotlight as well, as his career playoff numbers feature a lofty ERA of 9.53, a WHIP of 2.12 and opponent batting average of .360, albeit in limited innings. The only good thing I found about Pomeranz is that he hasn’t allowed a home run to a left-handed batter this season.

Dodgers starter Rich Hill had a good season. The tall southpaw comes into this one 11-5 with a 3.66 ERA with a nifty 1.12 WHIP and a low opponent batting average of .219. He appears to be more difficult to hit at night as evidenced by his 107 strikeouts in 94 innings. Hill finished the year out strong as his numbers were off the chart post-all-star break a 3.03 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .187 average against. The 3.03 ERA is a bit high as his one downfall is that he’s prone to give up the long ball. Hill is especially nasty with runners in scoring position, allowing a little average of .167 against. Rich Hill has allowed only 3 earned runs in his last 16.1 innings pitched (1.65 ERA).

Pitcher vs. Hitter Stats

Sox vs. Hill

  • Pearce 3-11 .273
  • Nunez 4-11 .444 HR
  • Martinez 2-9 .222 HR
  • Kinsler 1-7 .143
  • Moreland 0-2

Dodgers vs. Pomeranz

  • Machado 6-17 .353 HR
  • Freese 2-14 .143
  • Puig 2-9 .222
  • Grandal 3-8 .375 HR
  • Turner 0-7
  • Dozer 1-5 .200
  • Kike 1-4 .250
  • Kemp 0-3
  • Taylor 0-1

Injury Concerns

Nobody is expected to miss tonight’s game due to injury, although JD Martinez has a tweaked ankle and one has to wonder what kind of shape Eduardo Nunez is in after all the train wrecks he got into last night.

Weather

Sunny with temps in the mid 70’s. Winds are blowing out to the right at 4mph.

West’s Pick to Win

I’m basing my play on three very strong variables. I believe the Boston Red Sox come out flat after a huge emotional loss. The second is that Pomeranz sucks and Boston will need to go into their taxed bullpen. Lastly, Rich Hill is GOOD and has been good for months. I’m laying the wood with the Dodgers tonight at -165. For more articles like this one and to receive betting tips to help you become a better sports investor, please consider following me on Twitter @PredictemPicks. I do NFL and am one of the best free college basketball handicappers on the web as well. I’m always happy to answer questions too!

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