Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Pick 8/17/20

by | Aug 17, 2020 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (6-16) vs. New York Yankees (15-6)

When: 7:05 p.m., Monday, August 17

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez (2-2, 3.38 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) vs. Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 5.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)

Moneyline: BOS +147/NYY -157 (5Dimes - Reduced Odds on EVERY Game)

Runline: Red Sox +1.5/Yankees -1.5

Total: 10

One-Way Rivalry

They call this the greatest rivalry in baseball, but in recent times, it’s been a lot of one-way traffic dictated by the Yankees. New York has now won nine in a row against their archrival, and overall, the Yankees have won 14 of the past 15 against Boston. Mainly, that’s been because these teams have been going in different directions ever since Boston won the 2018 World Series. The Red Sox have been on a slow decline, while the Yankees quickly rebuilt their team and set themselves up to contend for the next decade.

This series isn’t quite at the level of the Yankees’ ownership of the Orioles, but Boston’s heading in that direction right now. The Red Sox have got to get this turned around if they’re going to do anything positive this season, but right now, Boston would be doing well to even cover the spread against New York. In six meetings with the Yankees this season, Boston has lost all of them by at least two runs, with Sunday’s matchup marking the first time that Boston has held the margin under three.

Stepping Up

Give Martin Perez credit. The Red Sox hurler had subpar numbers last year and appeared to be on the way to more of the same after getting roughed up by Baltimore, but it turns out that Perez is about the only starter that the Red Sox can consistently count on this season. He’ll walk more guys than either you or the Red Sox would like (unless, of course, you bet on a walk parade), but he’s given up just four runs in his past three starts and consistently pitches into the sixth inning.

He’s also done something that Boston pitchers haven’t done much this year: win. Of the Red Sox’s six wins this season, two of them ended with Perez getting credit for the victory. Wins have become a far less valued stat than they used to be as far as Perez is concerned, but for our purposes, the win is what really counts. After seven defeats in a row, it’s pretty tough to trust Boston to do much of anything on the positive side of things.

Adjusting the Offense

New York has a difficult job ahead of it in replacing DJ LeMahieu and his reliable bat. LeMahieu officially went on the injury list on Sunday, putting him out for ten days, and the Yankees responded by putting out their worst offensive day of the year against the Red Sox, scoring a mere four runs on the day.

Vegas is proving quick to react to the loss of LeMahieu, along with Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge being injured as well, tipping the Yankees to score just six times in nine innings on Monday. New York has usually put up closer to 10 runs against the beleaguered Boston bullpen, so there might be an opportunity here, but are the Yankees healthy enough to take advantage?

Betting Trends

  • The Red Sox are 1-7 in their past eight road games.
  • The Red Sox have lost five straight on Mondays.
  • The Yankees are 62-23 in their previous 85 against the AL East.
  • The over is 5-1-1 in the Red Sox’s last seven games.
  • The over is 5-1-2 in the Yankees’ past eight home games.
  • The Red Sox have won six of the last 20 meetings between the teams.

Weather Report

This will be an ideal night for baseball, as temperatures projected to be in the mid-70s degrees in the Bronx.

Dan’s Pick

Eventually, Boston is going to notch one against its rivals. The question is when, and the answer might be today, given how banged up the Yankees are. Perez has shown himself to be the steadiest member of the Boston rotation, and if he’s able to pitch five or six strong innings, Boston will have a real chance to steal this game.

Perez’s big weakness is when a team is patient against him, and the Yankees are only slightly above average in that department. But the Mets are even more patient than the Yankees, and Perez was able to handle them. That leads me to believe that he can do the job here. Give me Boston to edge the Yankees and finally draw some blood in this rivalry. Bet this week’s MLB picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus offer where you can deposit anywhere from $100 to $300 and the sportsbook will match you with the same amount! Find this great offer at MyBookie!