Boston Red Sox vs. NY Yankees Pick

by | Apr 17, 2019 | mlb

Boston Red Sox (6-12) vs. New York Yankees (7-9), 4/17/19
Time: 6:35 pm ET
Where: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
Listed Pitchers: Nathan Eovaldi (0-0, 8.40 ERA, 1.87 WHIP) vs. JA Happ (0-2, 8.76, 1.95)
TV: ESPN, NESN, MSG

Moneyline: Yankees -110/Red Sox +100 (5Dimes Sportsbook)
Over/Under: 9

The defending World Series champion Red Sox are off to a terrible start to the season, and just got embarrassed by the rival Yankees in the opener of this quick two-game series Tuesday night. Can Boston bounce back, or is this funk longer-term? And who do we like for our free MLB pick for Tuesday?

MLB Betting Odds

Wednesday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Happ at around -125 over Boston and Eovaldi, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about a dime, to around -115.

Sox vs. Yankees Set-Up

New York took the opener of this series Tuesday night 8-0, beating Chris Sale (although at the moment that’s not hard to do) as -110 favorites and covering against the run line at a price of +175. The Yankees bopped three home runs Tuesday night, while the Red Sox managed just three hits.

Also, thanks to that no-show from the Boston bats Tuesday’s game played under a total of 8.5 runs.

Even with Tuesday’s victory the Yankees are just 2-5 over their last seven games.

With Tuesday’s loss the Sox are 1-3 over their last four games.

At 7-9 overall New York trails first-place Tampa Bay by 5.5 games in the AL East, while at 6-12 Boston lags 7.5 games back.

Last year Boston took the season series from New York 10 games to nine, then beat the Yankees three games to one in an AL playoff series.

Wednesday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last September, a 3-2 Yanks victory.

Lefty Happ is 0/3 on quality starts this season, and has yet to pitch out of the fifth inning. Last time out, last Friday, Happ got knocked around for six runs and nine hits through four innings of a 9-6 New York loss to the White Sox. And over his three starts he’s allowed 12 runs and 19 hits through 12 1/3 innings.

The Yankees are 1-2 with Happ this season, with the overs going 3-0.

In five starts last year against the Red Sox, including one in the ALDS, Happ allowed 16 runs, although only 10 were earned, and 21 hits through 24 2/3 innings. New York finished 3-2 in those games, with the overs going 3-2.

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Eovaldi is also 0/3 on quality starts this season, and has yet to pitch more than five innings. Last time out, last Thursday, Eovaldi gave up five runs and six hits, including a couple of homers, through five innings of a 7-6 Boston victory over Toronto. And over his three starts he’s allowed 14 runs and 18 hits, with six homers and 10 walks, through 15 innings.

Somehow the Sox are 3-0 with Eovaldi this season, with the overs going 3-0.

In five starts last season against the Yankees, including one in the playoffs, Eovaldi allowed just seven runs, six earned, and 19 hits through 30 1/3 innings. Somehow, Boston only finished 2-3 in those games, with the unders going 3-2.

Wednesday’s Batting Splits

  • Boston is batting .244/.308/.392 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also managed just one run and seven hits over its last two games.
  • New York is batting .267/.358/.489 against right-handed pitching this season. But this lineup is also without several key bats at the moment, with four-five regulars on the DL.

The Bullpens

  • The Red Sox bullpen owns a 4.78 ERA this season, with a 1.32 WHIP but an 81/27 strikeouts/walks ratio.
  • The Yankees bullpen owns a 3.59 ERA, a 1.28 WHIP and a 67/25 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 10-7 in Red Sox games this season, mainly thanks to a pitching staff that’s giving up more than six runs per game.
  • The totals are split 8-8 in Yankees games this season.
  • The unders are 7-3 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season, which have trended low-scoring so far.
  • The overs finished 11-6-2 in Sox-Yanks games last season, then 2-2 in the playoffs.

Free MLB Pick

Boston is kinda terrible at the moment, but you’d think they’d begin to turn things around at any moment. New York, meanwhile, is banged-up. Also, Eovaldi was tough on the Yankees last season. We’re going with the Red Sox with our free MLB pick for Tuesday.

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