The Atlanta Braves (62-76) head to Wrigley Field for the second game of their series against the playoff-bound Chicago Cubs (79-59) on Tuesday night. After blowing a 6-1 lead in Monday’s series opener, the Braves turn to Joey Wentz to stop the bleeding against Cubs’ rookie sensation Shota Imanaga. I’m particularly interested in this pitching matchup, as Imanaga’s effectiveness at home combined with Atlanta’s road struggles creates a prime opportunity for Chicago to secure another victory and strengthen their wild card position.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+125) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) ★★★☆☆
- Value Play: Under 8.0 Runs (-110) ★★★★☆
Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Atlanta Braves | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +145 | -177 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (+125) |
| Total | Over 8.0 (-110) | Under 8.0 (-110) |
Opening Line: Cubs -170, Total 8.0
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement since opening has been minimal, with the Cubs moving from -170 to -177, suggesting steady action on Chicago. What’s most telling is that despite Monday’s high-scoring affair (a 7-6 Cubs victory), the total has remained steady at 8.0 runs. This indicates professional bettors are respecting Imanaga’s dominance at Wrigley Field and the historical pitcher-friendly conditions of the venue. With sharp money favoring the Cubs and the under, I’m seeing alignment with my own analysis of this matchup.
Pitching Matchup: Joey Wentz vs Shota Imanaga – Who Has the Edge?
Atlanta Braves: Joey Wentz (2-1, 4.15 ERA)
- Limited sample size with just 26 innings pitched in 2025
- Concerning 1.38 WHIP with 11 walks in 26 innings
- Strikeout numbers (22 Ks) are solid but not overwhelming
- Has struggled with consistency, alternating good and poor outings
Chicago Cubs: Shota Imanaga (8-6, 3.08 ERA)
- Elite 0.93 WHIP ranks among the best in the National League
- Excellent control with just 22 walks against 95 strikeouts in 117 innings
- Much stronger at Wrigley Field with a 2.53 ERA in home starts
- Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 7 of his last 9 starts
Advantage: Significant edge to Chicago. Imanaga’s precise command and excellent home numbers give him a substantial advantage over the inconsistent Wentz, who’s still trying to establish himself at the major league level.
Bullpen Breakdown
The bullpen comparison further tilts this matchup toward Chicago. The Cubs’ relief corps ranks among the most effective in baseball, led by Brad Keller (22 holds) and their deep setup crew featuring Caleb Thielbar, Andrew Kittredge, and Drew Pomeranz. Chicago’s bullpen demonstrated its resilience in Monday’s comeback win, with Kittredge earning the victory with a perfect 10th inning.
Atlanta’s bullpen, meanwhile, has been a trouble spot all season. The recent collapse in the series opener highlighted these issues, with Pierce Johnson blowing a save opportunity by surrendering a game-tying homer to Carson Kelly in the 8th inning. With Raisel Iglesias handling the closing duties (23 saves), the Braves have reliable late-inning options in Dylan Lee (15 holds) and Tyler Kinley, but their middle relief has been inconsistent all season, which becomes problematic when starters like Wentz struggle to work deep into games.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Chicago is 42-25 at home this season, while Atlanta is a dismal 29-43 on the road
- The Cubs are an impressive 35-11 in games where they do not allow a home run
- Atlanta has lost 6 of their last 10 games and has been outscored by 3 runs during that stretch
- The Braves are just 0-1 against the Cubs this season, blowing a 5-run lead in their first meeting
- Chicago’s run differential (+117) is far superior to Atlanta’s (-17) this season
- The Cubs’ offense averages 4.93 runs per game compared to Atlanta’s 4.41
- Wrigley Field has played as a pitcher’s park in 2025 with a 0.898 run factor (25th in MLB)
Michael Harris II’s Hot Streak: Can He Continue Against Imanaga?
Despite Atlanta’s struggles as a team, Michael Harris II has been red-hot since the All-Star break, batting .335 with 11 homers and 33 RBIs in 43 games. His performance in Monday’s series opener was particularly impressive, going 2-for-5 with a double and 4 RBIs. With Harris showing this level of production against both righties and lefties, he represents one of the few bright spots in an otherwise disappointing Braves lineup.
While Imanaga has been tough on most hitters this season, Harris’ excellent bat-to-ball skills and improved approach against left-handed pitching make him the Brave most likely to find success in this matchup. His total bases prop presents intriguing value for Atlanta backers looking for a positive angle in what otherwise projects as a difficult game for the Braves.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has played as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball this season, with a run factor of just 0.898 (25th in MLB) and a home run factor of 0.883. These numbers become even more significant when the wind isn’t blowing out, which is the case for tonight’s contest with light 5-7 mph winds expected.
The park’s dimensions and wind patterns particularly benefit pitchers like Imanaga who rely on command and changing speeds rather than overpowering velocity. For Wentz, who has struggled with walks and hard contact, Wrigley’s forgiving dimensions might help minimize damage, but the Cubs’ disciplined offense is well-equipped to take advantage of any control issues. The venue significantly favors Chicago’s starter and makes the under an attractive option.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Braves-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+125)
I’m backing the Cubs to win by multiple runs at the attractive +125 price. The pitching matchup heavily favors Chicago, with Imanaga’s elite command giving him a substantial edge over the inconsistent Wentz. After Monday’s dramatic comeback win, the Cubs should carry that momentum forward against a Braves team that’s been disappointing all season, particularly on the road. The +125 price offers excellent value considering the talent gap between these two clubs.
Strong Value Play: Under 8.0 Runs (-110)
Wrigley Field has suppressed offense all season, and tonight’s pitching matchup sets up perfectly for a lower-scoring affair. Imanaga’s 0.93 WHIP and excellent home numbers suggest he should limit Atlanta’s struggling offense, while Wentz may benefit from Wrigley’s dimensions. The Cubs’ strong bullpen should help secure a tight, low-scoring victory. I see this as a 4-2 or 5-2 type of game that stays under the total.
Worth Considering: Michael Harris II Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
If you’re looking for a Braves-focused bet, Harris represents their best chance for offensive production. He’s batting .335 since the All-Star break and just delivered a 2-hit, 4-RBI performance in the series opener. His improving approach against lefties makes him capable of recording multiple hits or an extra-base hit against Imanaga. At +120 odds, this prop offers solid value given Harris’ recent form.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Michael Harris II | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Joey Wentz | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -140 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Nico Hoerner | To Record a Hit | -175 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | To Record an RBI | +150 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs’ Pitching Dominance Will Be the Difference
This matchup presents a classic case of strength versus weakness. Chicago’s stellar home record (42-25) against Atlanta’s poor road performance (29-43) already creates a significant edge, but the pitching disparity takes it to another level. Imanaga has been one of the most consistent starters in the National League, particularly at Wrigley Field, while Wentz remains an unproven commodity with control issues.
After Atlanta’s bullpen collapse in the series opener, there’s also a psychological element at play. The Cubs should have confidence knowing they’ve already demonstrated they can come back against this Braves relief corps, while Atlanta may be pressing after letting a 5-run lead slip away. All factors point to Chicago continuing their playoff push with a convincing victory in a relatively low-scoring game at Wrigley.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 5, Atlanta Braves 2
