The Milwaukee Brewers (58-40) look to complete a season sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers (58-41) when they wrap up their three-game series on Sunday at Dodger Stadium. Milwaukee has dominated this matchup in 2025, winning all five previous meetings, including the first two games of this weekend set. The struggling Dodgers have dropped nine of their last eleven overall and face a must-win situation to avoid being swept at home. With veteran lefties Jose Quintana and Clayton Kershaw squaring off in a classic pitcher’s duel, this matchup presents several enticing betting angles worth targeting.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers ML (+108) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 8 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +108 | -128 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-155) | -1.5 (+135) |
| Total | Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -135, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement in this game tells an interesting story. The Dodgers opened as -135 favorites but have seen their price improve slightly to -128 despite dropping the first two games of the series. This suggests professional money still believes Los Angeles is due for a bounce-back performance. The total has also seen minor movement, dropping from 8.5 to 8 at most sportsbooks, indicating respect for both veteran southpaws on the mound. The sharp action appears to be slightly favoring the under, recognizing Kershaw’s historical success at Dodger Stadium and Quintana’s ability to induce soft contact.
Pitching Matchup: Jose Quintana vs Clayton Kershaw – Who Has the Edge?
Milwaukee Brewers: Jose Quintana (6-3, 3.28 ERA)
- Quintana has been remarkably consistent this season, allowing 3 or fewer earned runs in 13 of his 15 starts
- Maintains a solid 1.36 WHIP despite modest strikeout numbers (48 K’s in 71.1 IP)
- Has been effective against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .251 average
- Excellent road pitcher with a 3.14 ERA away from American Family Field this season
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 3.38 ERA)
- The future Hall of Famer has been limited to just 50.2 innings this season due to early shoulder issues
- Still building up stamina, averaging just over 5 innings per start since returning
- Strikeout rate of 6.2 K/9 is well below his career average, indicating diminished stuff
- Has been much more hittable, with a 1.24 WHIP that’s his highest since 2010
Advantage: Slight edge to Milwaukee. While Kershaw’s name value remains elite, Quintana has been the more reliable pitcher in 2025. Kershaw’s diminished velocity and pitch count limitations give the Brewers a small but meaningful advantage on the mound.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Brewers continue to feature one of baseball’s most dominant bullpens, anchored by All-Star closer Trevor Megill (23 saves) who has been lights-out with a sub-2.00 ERA. Milwaukee’s relief corps boasts the third-best ERA in the National League at 3.15, with setup men Abner Uribe (27 holds) and Jared Koenig (19 holds) forming a formidable bridge to the ninth. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been more vulnerable lately, posting a 4.32 ERA over their last 10 games with several high-leverage arms like Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen still on the IL. Tanner Scott has converted 19 saves but has shown inconsistency in non-save situations. Milwaukee’s deeper and more rested bullpen gives them a significant advantage in the later innings, particularly if this game remains close into the seventh inning or beyond.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Brewers have won all five meetings against the Dodgers this season, outscoring them 29-12
- Milwaukee is an impressive 9-1 over their last 10 games with a +27 run differential
- Los Angeles has lost nine of their last eleven games and five straight at home
- The Dodgers are batting just .205 as a team over their last 10 games
- Milwaukee is 40-8 this season when they out-hit their opponents
- The under has hit in 7 of the last 10 Dodgers home games when facing left-handed starters
- William Contreras is batting .372 (12 for 43) with 4 doubles over his last 10 games for the Brewers
- Shohei Ohtani has 33 home runs on the season, including a 448-foot blast in yesterday’s game
Shohei Ohtani Spotlight: Can MLB’s Home Run Leader End Dodgers’ Skid?
Despite the Dodgers’ recent struggles, Shohei Ohtani continues to produce at an MVP level. His two-run bomb in Saturday’s game brought his season total to 33 home runs, tied for the MLB lead. Ohtani has been particularly effective against left-handed pitching this season, posting a .308 average and .646 slugging percentage versus southpaws. While Quintana has generally limited damage this season, Ohtani represents his biggest challenge today. The Brewers will need to be careful with their pitch selection, as Ohtani has been punishing mistakes with authority. With Mookie Betts struggling (.241 average) and potentially out of the lineup again today, the pressure on Ohtani to carry the Dodgers’ offense is immense.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Dodger Stadium has historically been pitcher-friendly, and this season continues that trend with a 0.940 runs factor (21st in MLB). However, it does boost home runs with a 1.122 HR factor that ranks 8th among all ballparks. This creates an interesting dynamic for today’s matchup between two veteran lefties who rely more on command than overpowering stuff. The afternoon start time (4:10 pm ET) typically favors pitchers at Chavez Ravine, with the shadows between the mound and home plate creating visibility challenges for hitters in the middle innings. With temperatures expected in the upper 70s and minimal wind, conditions should be ideal for both pitchers to work effectively. Expect the spacious outfield to turn some would-be home runs into doubles, particularly to the power alleys.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Brewers-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (+108)
I’m backing the Brewers as slight underdogs in this matchup for several compelling reasons. Milwaukee has dominated this season series (5-0) and comes in with tremendous momentum (9-1 in their last 10). Quintana has been a model of consistency this season, while Kershaw continues to work through diminished velocity and stamina limitations. The Brewers’ bullpen advantage becomes magnified in what should be a close, low-scoring affair. With the Dodgers’ offense in a prolonged slump (.205 team average over their last 10) and key players like Betts struggling, Milwaukee offers excellent value at plus money. I’d play this down to even money.
Strong Value Play: Under 8 Runs (-110)
Both starters profile as contact managers rather than strikeout artists, but their ability to induce weak contact should play well in Dodger Stadium’s pitcher-friendly confines. The afternoon start time creates challenging hitting conditions with shadows, and both teams have struggled to produce consistent offense against left-handed pitching. The Brewers’ elite bullpen gives them an excellent chance to protect a lead or keep the game close in the late innings. While yesterday’s contest featured more offense than expected, I believe both managers will employ more conservative approaches in this series finale, making the under the value play at this number.
Worth Considering: Jackson Chourio First Run Scored (+750)
The Brewers’ rookie phenom has been a catalyst atop their lineup and has shown impressive speed on the basepaths. With Kershaw’s diminished velocity and the Dodgers’ struggles against Milwaukee this season, Chourio has an excellent chance to reach base early and potentially score the game’s first run. At these long odds, it represents a solid value opportunity in what should be a low-scoring affair where the first run carries significant importance.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| William Contreras | To Record a Hit | -180 | ★★★★☆ |
| Clayton Kershaw | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | +110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jackson Chourio | To Record a Run | +120 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jose Quintana | Over 3.5 Strikeouts | -125 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Brewers’ Dominance Over Dodgers Continues
The Dodgers enter this matchup as favorites largely on reputation and home-field advantage, but the evidence points to Milwaukee continuing their dominance in this season series. The Brewers have all the momentum, coming in hot on a 9-1 stretch while the Dodgers continue to struggle offensively. Both pitchers are crafty veterans who know how to navigate tough lineups, but Quintana has been the more consistent arm this season. The Brewers’ bullpen provides a significant late-game advantage, and their more balanced lineup should manufacture enough runs to secure the victory. In a game where small edges matter, Milwaukee’s form and track record against the Dodgers this season make them the value play at plus money.
Score Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers 4, Los Angeles Dodgers 2
