Note: New info since publication has “Quintana” starting for the Brewers.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the verge of their second consecutive World Series appearance as they take a commanding 3-0 series lead into Game 4 of the National League Championship Series against the Milwaukee Brewers. After Tyler Glasnow’s dominant performance in Game 3 and another clinical team victory, the Dodgers now turn to superstar Shohei Ohtani to complete the sweep. Meanwhile, the Brewers face the daunting task of making history – no team in MLB postseason history has ever overcome a 3-0 deficit in a best-of-seven series. With their season on the line and Aaron Ashby taking the mound, Milwaukee needs a miracle at Dodger Stadium to extend this series.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-160) ★★★★★
- Value Play: Under 8 Runs (-120) ★★★☆☆
Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +160 | -195 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-135) | -1.5 (+115) |
| Total | Over 8.0 (+100) | Under 8.0 (-120) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -190, Total 8
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
Professional bettors seem to be showing respect for the Brewers’ survival instincts, as the run line has moved slightly in Milwaukee’s favor despite the 3-0 series deficit. While public money is heavily backing the Dodgers to complete the sweep, sharps recognize that elimination games often bring out a team’s best effort. The total has held steady at 8 runs, but the juice has shifted toward the under, suggesting some sharp action there. Given Ohtani’s playoff success and the Brewers’ offensive struggles throughout the series (just 3 runs in 3 games), smart money appears to favor a lower-scoring affair for Game 4.
Pitching Matchup: Aaron Ashby vs Shohei Ohtani – Who Has the Edge?
Milwaukee Brewers: Aaron Ashby (0-0, 5.40 ERA)
- Limited sample size with just 6.2 innings pitched in postseason play
- Concerning 2.10 WHIP and 6 walks issued in his limited action
- Will likely serve as an opener with Jacob Misiorowski potentially following
- Has struggled with command, evidenced by the 6 BB to 7 K ratio
Los Angeles Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani (0-0, 0.68 ERA)
- Has been absolutely dominant in October with a microscopic 0.68 ERA across 13.1 innings
- Striking out batters at an elite clip with 18 Ks in postseason play
- Control has been his only minor issue with 8 walks issued
- Has shown the ability to pitch deep into games during playoffs, easing bullpen workload
Advantage: Significant edge to Los Angeles. Ohtani has been nearly unhittable in October, while Ashby’s limited sample size and control issues make him a risky option in an elimination game.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Brewers’ bullpen has been their strength all season, but they’re showing signs of fatigue after Game 3’s defeat. Abner Uribe, who led the majors with 37 holds during the regular season, made a crucial throwing error that allowed an insurance run to score in Game 3. Trevor Megill (30 saves) remains relatively fresh, but the Brewers have struggled to bridge the gap to their closer. The Dodgers’ bullpen has been surprisingly effective in the postseason, with Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda and Roki Sasaki combining for impeccable work in Game 3. What was once considered a weakness has become a strength for Los Angeles at the perfect time. With Ohtani potentially working 6+ innings in Game 4, the Dodgers’ relief corps should be well-positioned to close out the series.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Dodgers have won 9 of their first 10 postseason games, with their only loss coming to Philadelphia in the NLDS
- Los Angeles has allowed one run or fewer in four consecutive playoff games, a feat last accomplished by the 1996 Braves
- The Brewers are hitting just .201 over their last 10 games and have scored only 3 runs in the entire NLCS
- The Dodgers have won 7 consecutive home playoff games dating back to last postseason
- Milwaukee has gone under the total in 7 of their last 10 games
- Teams facing elimination in the postseason are 19-32 since 2020
Freddie Freeman’s October Excellence: A Championship Pedigree Shining Through
Freddie Freeman continues to prove why he’s one of baseball’s most consistent postseason performers. After delivering the key hit in Game 3 that helped break the game open, Freeman now has 27 career postseason RBIs and is hitting .317 in October dating back to last year’s championship run. His approach against left-handed pitching (Ashby) has been particularly impressive this season, batting .302 with a .564 slugging percentage. With Ohtani struggling at the plate during the postseason (3-for-29), Freeman has emerged as the offensive catalyst for the Dodgers. His veteran presence and calm demeanor in high-pressure situations make him the perfect player to target for prop bets in this potential clincher.
Dodger Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
While Dodger Stadium generally plays as a pitcher-friendly park for overall runs (0.940 park factor, 21st in MLB), it actually significantly boosts home run production with a 1.122 HR factor (7th highest). This creates an interesting dynamic for Game 4, as both pitchers have shown vulnerability to the long ball. The evening conditions in Los Angeles typically favor pitchers with the marine layer settling in, but the 6:08 PM start time means the first few innings will be played with shadows creeping across the infield, creating difficult hitting conditions. The Dodgers hold a massive home-field advantage here, having gone 52-29 at Chavez Ravine during the regular season. With a raucous crowd expected for a potential clincher, the venue significantly favors the home team beyond just the statistical park factors.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Brewers-Dodgers Showdown
Primary Play: Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
I’m backing the Dodgers on the run line at plus-money odds in what projects to be a series-clinching victory. Los Angeles has been utterly dominant this postseason, especially on the mound, where they’ve allowed three or fewer runs in eight of their nine playoff wins. With Ohtani on the mound showing elite form (0.68 ERA), the pitching advantage is substantial against Ashby, who brings a concerning 2.10 WHIP into this elimination game. The Brewers have managed just three runs in the entire series, and I don’t see their offense suddenly solving LA’s pitching with their season on the line. This price offers excellent value for a team that’s firing on all cylinders and looking to complete a sweep at home.
Strong Value Play: Under 8 Runs (-120)
The under looks appealing with Ohtani dealing and the Brewers’ offense in a deep freeze. Milwaukee has averaged just 1 run per game in this series and faces their toughest pitching matchup yet. While Ashby isn’t reliable, the Brewers’ bullpen remains capable of keeping games close, especially with their season on the line. Playoff elimination games often feature tense, low-scoring affairs as pitching decisions become more aggressive. The Dodgers’ relievers have been exceptional lately, allowing just one baserunner in 3.1 innings in Game 3. With the total holding at 8 despite the offensive struggles in this series, I’m comfortable backing the under.
Worth Considering: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (-160)
Freeman has been the most consistent offensive performer for the Dodgers this October and draws a favorable matchup against the left-handed Ashby. Freeman is hitting .302 against southpaws and has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 7 of his last 11 playoff games. While the juice is heavy at -160, this reflects Freeman’s consistency rather than poor value. With Ashby’s control issues (6 walks in 6.2 innings) likely to create favorable counts, Freeman should get at least one very hittable pitch. In a potential clinching game with the veteran locked in at the plate, I expect Freeman to deliver at least one extra-base hit.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freddie Freeman | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -160 | ★★★★★ |
| Christian Yelich | Over 1.5 H+R+RBI | +105 | ★★★★☆ |
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -135 | ★★★★☆ |
| William Contreras | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -105 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Mookie Betts | Under 2.5 H+R+RBI | -175 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Dodgers Poised to Complete Sweep Behind Dominant Pitching
Everything points to the Dodgers punching their World Series ticket tonight. Los Angeles has been methodical in this series, showcasing elite pitching (just 3 runs allowed in 3 games), timely hitting, and stellar defense. While the Brewers will undoubtedly fight to extend their season, they simply haven’t shown the offensive capability to overcome LA’s pitching dominance. With Ohtani on the mound and looking to cement his October legacy, I expect another strong pitching performance backed by enough offense to secure the victory. The Dodgers’ quest to become the first team to win back-to-back championships in 25 years takes another step forward tonight with a convincing series-clinching win.
Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Brewers 1
