The St. Louis Cardinals (47-42) travel to Wrigley Field looking to bounce back from a humiliating series opener against the Chicago Cubs (53-35), who smashed a franchise-record eight home runs in yesterday’s 11-3 rout. With young southpaw Matthew Liberatore taking the mound against Drew Pomeranz, today’s game features an intriguing lefty-lefty pitching matchup. After watching yesterday’s offensive explosion from the Cubs, I’ve zeroed in on several betting angles that offer significant value in this heated NL Central rivalry game.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Cardinals Moneyline (+135) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Total Under 10.5 Runs (-110) ★★★☆☆
St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +135 | -155 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-140) | -1.5 (+120) |
| Total | Over 10.5 (+100) | Under 10.5 (-110) |
Opening Line: Cubs -145, Total 10
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The market has moved slightly in Chicago’s favor since opening, with the Cubs’ moneyline shifting from -145 to -155, despite yesterday’s offensive explosion. This moderate movement suggests professional bettors aren’t completely sold on a repeat performance. What’s more interesting is the total opening at 10 and ticking up to 10.5, yet the juice is favoring the under. This indicates a classic sharp vs. public battle, with recreational bettors expecting another slugfest while sharps see regression coming. I’m aligned with the sharp money here, as the pitching matchup today is substantially different from yesterday’s.
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Liberatore vs Drew Pomeranz – Who Has the Edge?
St. Louis Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore (6-6, 3.70 ERA)
- Showcasing excellent command with just 17 walks in 92.1 innings (1.7 BB/9)
- Coming into his own with a solid 3.70 ERA that’s backed by consistent performances
- 76 strikeouts in 92.1 innings demonstrates his ability to generate swings and misses
- Has shown significant improvement against right-handed hitters compared to previous seasons
Chicago Cubs: Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 0.00 ERA)
- Remarkable 0.00 ERA through 23.1 innings is impressive but unsustainable
- Likely due for regression with a .238 BABIP that’s well below league average
- Limited sample size of 23.1 innings this season raises questions about stamina and durability
- Walking 2.7 batters per 9 innings, which could lead to trouble against patient Cardinals hitters
Advantage: Cardinals. While Pomeranz’s 0.00 ERA jumps off the page, Liberatore offers more predictable length and has proven himself over a larger sample size this season. Pomeranz’s perfect ERA is due for regression, and he’s unlikely to work deep into the game, which will expose the Cubs’ bullpen earlier.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been a strength all season, anchored by Ryan Helsley (16 saves) and a solid setup corps including Phil Maton (17 holds) and Kyle Leahy (12 holds). JoJo Romero provides another strong left-handed option out of the pen. The Cubs’ relief situation is more fragmented, with closer duties spread among Daniel Palencia (10 saves) and Ryan Pressly (5 saves). Their bullpen should be relatively fresh after Colin Rea’s strong 6.2 inning performance yesterday, but they’ll likely need more innings today with Pomeranz unlikely to work deep into the game. This gives St. Louis a slight edge in late-game situations, especially if Liberatore can provide length and hand a lead directly to the high-leverage relievers.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Cubs have won 7 of their last 10 games and are an impressive 29-18 at Wrigley Field
- St. Louis is 6-4 in their last 10 road games and 20-22 overall away from Busch Stadium
- Cardinals are 23-20 against NL Central opponents this season
- The Cubs have scored 5+ runs in 8 of their last 10 games, averaging 5.4 runs per game
- The Cardinals offense has struggled recently, scoring just 3 runs in their last 4 games combined
- Matthew Liberatore has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts
- Left-handed pitchers have held Cubs’ slugger Michael Busch to a .238 average this season
Kyle Tucker vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong: Star Outfielders in the Spotlight
Today’s game features two of the most exciting outfielders in baseball. Kyle Tucker, acquired by the Cubs in the offseason, is living up to expectations and eyeing a potential $500 million contract in free agency. Meanwhile, Pete Crow-Armstrong has emerged as a true five-tool player for Chicago, earning an All-Star starting role while showcasing elite defense and surprising power. Both players were instrumental in yesterday’s win, with Crow-Armstrong hitting two homers and making a spectacular diving catch. However, today’s matchup against fellow lefty Liberatore could neutralize some of their advantages, particularly for the left-handed Crow-Armstrong, who despite his success, has more traditional platoon splits against southpaws.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Interestingly, despite yesterday’s home run barrage, Wrigley Field has actually played as one of the more pitcher-friendly parks this season with a runs factor of 0.898 (25th in MLB) and a home run factor of 0.883. This suggests yesterday’s explosion was more about Mikolas’ poor location than the park itself. Today’s game features two left-handed pitchers, which neutralizes some of the ballpark’s tendencies that favor right-handed power. The wind is expected to be blowing in from left field at 8-10 mph, creating conditions that should suppress power, especially to right field. This further enhances the pitching advantage and supports the under as a strong play today.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cardinals-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Cardinals Moneyline (+135)
I’m taking the Cardinals as significant underdogs today at +135. Yesterday’s game created a perfect sell-high, buy-low opportunity – the Cubs won’t hit eight home runs again, and the Cardinals are due for offensive regression to the mean. Liberatore gives St. Louis a more reliable starter who should work deeper into the game than Pomeranz. The betting market has overreacted to yesterday’s result, creating excellent value on St. Louis. I’d bet this down to +125.
Strong Value Play: Matthew Liberatore Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Liberatore has quietly developed into a solid strikeout pitcher, averaging 7.4 K/9 this season. The Cubs, despite their power, rank middle of the pack in strikeouts, and their aggressive approach plays into Liberatore’s strengths. With the wind blowing in, the Cardinals lefty should be more confident attacking the zone. The plus-money odds make this an excellent value, as Liberatore has surpassed this total in 6 of his last 8 starts.
Worth Considering: Total Under 10.5 Runs (-110)
After yesterday’s 14-run outburst, the market has pushed this total too high. With two left-handed pitchers on the mound and winds blowing in at Wrigley, conditions favor pitchers today. Pomeranz hasn’t allowed an earned run all season, and while regression is coming, a complete collapse is unlikely. Liberatore has been consistently solid, keeping the Cardinals in games. The under is the sharp side here.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Liberatore | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | +110 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nolan Arenado | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +130 | ★★★★☆ |
| Drew Pomeranz | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -135 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Willson Contreras | To Record an RBI | +155 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Michael Busch | Under 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Expect Regression and a Tighter Contest
Yesterday’s fireworks display by the Cubs was historic but unsustainable. Baseball is a game of regression, and today’s matchup features significantly different pitching than yesterday’s slugfest. The Cardinals, with their veteran leadership, will bounce back from the embarrassing loss. Liberatore gives them a legitimate chance to steal this game, and at +135, the value is too good to pass up. Don’t be fooled by recency bias – this will be a much more competitive and lower-scoring affair.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 5, Cubs 4
