The St. Louis Cardinals (80-84) and Chicago Cubs (91-71) continue their longstanding rivalry Friday afternoon at Wrigley Field in a matchup featuring two veteran right-handers looking to finish their seasons strong. With the Cubs firmly in playoff position and the Cardinals playing out the string, this NL Central clash presents some interesting betting opportunities. I’m particularly focused on how Miles Mikolas matches up with a Cubs lineup that has thrived at home this season, and whether Colin Rea can maintain his recent form against a Cardinals offense that has struggled to find consistency.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 (115) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (-122) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Over 9.0 runs (100) ★★★☆☆
Cardinals vs Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +147 | -172 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-135) | -1.5 (+115) |
| Total | Over 9.0 (100) | Under 9.0 (-122) |
Opening Line: Cubs -165, Total 9.0
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game has been minimal since opening, with the Cubs ticking up slightly from -165 to -172, suggesting modest public action on Chicago. What’s more interesting is the run line, where the Cubs -1.5 at +115 is attracting some sharp interest. Professional bettors appear to see value in backing the Cubs to win by multiple runs against a Cardinals team that’s struggled on the road. The total has held steady at 9.0, but there’s been movement in the juice, shifting from even money to favoring the under (-122), indicating some respected money believes pitching will control this matchup despite Wrigley Field’s reputation as a hitter-friendly park in day games.
Pitching Matchup: Miles Mikolas vs Colin Rea – Who Has the Edge?
St. Louis Cardinals: Miles Mikolas (8-10, 4.76 ERA)
- Has struggled with consistency throughout the season, posting a disappointing 4.76 ERA across 151.1 innings
- Low strikeout rate (5.7 K/9) makes him vulnerable when balls are put in play
- Has allowed 10+ hits in three of his last seven starts
- Typically keeps walks low (36 BB in 151.1 IP) but has a concerning 1.33 WHIP
Chicago Cubs: Colin Rea (10-7, 4.10 ERA)
- Solid but unspectacular 4.10 ERA across 153.2 innings this season
- Better strikeout ability than Mikolas with 120 Ks (7.0 K/9)
- Has been more effective at Wrigley with a 3.78 home ERA
- Demonstrates good control with a 1.28 WHIP and 43 walks in 153.2 innings
Advantage: Cubs. Rea has been the more reliable starter this season with better overall metrics and has performed well at home. Mikolas has struggled with hard contact and doesn’t miss enough bats to consistently escape trouble.
Bullpen Breakdown
The bullpen comparison heavily favors the Cubs, who have assembled one of the more reliable relief corps in the National League. Daniel Palencia has emerged as Chicago’s closer with 22 saves, supported by a deep setup crew featuring Brad Keller (25 holds), Caleb Thielbar (23 holds), and several other reliable arms including Andrew Kittredge and Drew Pomeranz. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have pieced together a patchwork bullpen after trading Ryan Helsley at the deadline, with JoJo Romero (8 saves, 24 holds) and Riley O’Brien (6 saves) handling high-leverage situations. Chicago’s relievers have been notably more effective in protecting leads, posting a combined 3.65 ERA compared to the Cardinals’ 4.27 mark. This gives the Cubs a significant edge if this game remains close into the later innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Cubs are 52-29 at Wrigley Field this season, one of the best home records in the National League
- St. Louis has struggled on the road with a 36-45 record away from Busch Stadium
- Chicago has dominated the season series, going 9-3 against the Cardinals in 2025
- The Cubs offense averages 4.86 runs per game compared to just 4.31 for the Cardinals
- St. Louis has been outscored by 48 runs this season while Chicago boasts a +127 run differential
- The Cubs have been particularly strong in day games, posting a 34-21 record in afternoon contests
- Chicago’s offense has been especially potent at home, averaging 5.2 runs per game at Wrigley
Michael Busch’s Breakout Season: The Cubs’ New Offensive Catalyst
Michael Busch has emerged as one of Chicago’s most consistent offensive threats this season, particularly at Wrigley Field where he’s slashing .298/.375/.527 with 18 home runs. The former Dodgers prospect has found his groove in Chicago, making the adjustment to regular playing time and demonstrating the power potential that made him a highly-rated prospect. Against right-handed pitching like Mikolas, Busch has been especially dangerous, posting a .911 OPS with 22 home runs. His patient approach (walking in 11.2% of plate appearances) should work well against Mikolas, who tends to pound the zone. With Busch batting in the heart of Chicago’s order and facing a pitcher who allows plenty of contact, his over 1.5 total bases prop at -122 represents strong value for today’s matchup.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has actually played as slightly pitcher-friendly this season with a park factor of 0.898 for runs (25th in MLB) and 0.883 for home runs. However, September afternoon games at Wrigley can be a different animal entirely. Today’s forecast calls for 72 degrees with winds blowing out to left field at 10-12 mph, creating ideal hitting conditions. This wind direction particularly benefits left-handed power hitters like Busch and Ian Happ for Chicago, potentially neutralizing the park’s season-long suppression of offense. The Cubs have averaged nearly 5.5 runs per game in September day games at Wrigley this season, suggesting they know how to take advantage of these conditions. While the ballpark metrics might suggest a lower-scoring affair, the specific weather conditions for today’s game point toward offensive production.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cardinals-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Cubs -1.5 (+115)
I’m confidently backing the Cubs on the run line today. With a significant advantage in starting pitching, bullpen effectiveness, and offensive firepower, Chicago should handle the Cardinals by multiple runs. The Cubs’ 52-29 home record speaks volumes about their comfort level at Wrigley, and they’ve dominated this matchup all season, going 9-3 against St. Louis. Mikolas’ tendency to allow contact combined with Chicago’s potent home offense creates a perfect storm for a Cubs win by 2+ runs. At plus-money odds of +115, the value is simply too good to pass up.
Strong Value Play: Over 9.0 runs (100)
While Wrigley Field has surprisingly suppressed scoring this season, today’s weather conditions (winds blowing out to left field) create an environment conducive to offense. Both starters have ERAs over 4.00, and neither misses many bats. The Cubs rank 5th in the NL in runs scored, averaging nearly a run more per game than St. Louis. With even money odds on the over, I’m seeing value in backing a higher-scoring affair than the ballpark factors might suggest. I expect both teams to contribute to clearing this total, with Chicago doing the majority of the damage.
Worth Considering: Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (-122)
Busch has been a revelation for the Cubs this season, particularly at Wrigley Field where he’s thrived against right-handed pitching. Mikolas’ pitch-to-contact approach plays right into Busch’s strengths, and the favorable wind conditions should help any well-struck balls carry. Busch has exceeded 1.5 total bases in 63% of home games against right-handed starters this season, making -122 odds quite reasonable. With his consistent hard contact and Mikolas’ vulnerability to left-handed power, this prop offers substantial value.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Busch | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -122 | ★★★★☆ |
| Seiya Suzuki | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -102 | ★★★★☆ |
| Colin Rea | Over 3.5 Strikeouts | -157 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Miles Mikolas | Under 3.5 Strikeouts | -148 | ★★★★☆ |
| Nico Hoerner | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +107 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs’ Home Field Advantage Should Prove Decisive
When analyzing this matchup comprehensively, all signs point to a comfortable Cubs victory. Chicago’s significant advantages in starting pitching, bullpen effectiveness, offensive production, and home field advantage create a perfect storm against a Cardinals team that’s playing out the string. Miles Mikolas’ pitch-to-contact approach is particularly concerning against a Cubs lineup that has thrived at Wrigley Field all season. With favorable hitting conditions and the Cubs’ dominant 9-3 record against St. Louis this season, I’m confident in backing Chicago to win by multiple runs. The value on the Cubs -1.5 at +115 is simply too good to pass up in what should be a convincing home victory to continue their playoff push.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 6, St. Louis Cardinals 3
